ARMENIA UNDER SIEGE

AZG Armenian Daily
14/03/2008

Post-Election Crisis

Ever since independence, Armenia’s main asset has been its internal
stability. And every external and internal force has threatened
to destabilize the country to get its agenda promoted. At every
such crisis, brinkmanship has played a role, until sober heads have
prevailed to avert a catastrophe. In the aftermath of the February 19
presidential election, those sober heads were not around to be found
and the catastrophe took place with unforeseen consequences for long
time to come. Indeed Kocharian’s government and opposition leader
Levon Ter-Petrossian were at loggerheads, expecting the other party
to blink, which was not to happen. At this time, a government-imposed
state of emergency has turned into an internal siege for Armenia’s
population, while an external siege is being configured by outside
forces, unfortunately aided by internal desperate voices. A tremendous
amount of damage has already been caused by the loss of human lives,
but that is only the beginning in a rapidly deteriorating crisis.

As anticipated, Azerbaijan has raised the ante by attacking the
Armenian positions in the Martakert region of Karabagh, certainly
encouraged and emboldened by the internal turmoil in Armenia. This
is a loss of wills across the lines of the ceasefire, and a more
dangerous escalation of hostilities may be in the offing, if the war
planners in Baku determine that the Armenian government is too weak
to retaliate to a major onslaught.

While countries, like Azerbaijan, can get away with murder, because
of the oil factor or strategic advantage, Western powers are
quick to admonish Armenia with impunity, at the first sign of any
infraction. And that may have long-term political and economic impact
on the country. The chorus of external condemnations has already
begun, with a spark from none other than the former president and
recently-defeated presidential candidate, Levon Ter Petrossian. Indeed,
on March 5, an op-ed article signed by the first president appeared in
the Washington Post and subsequently circulated in the news media. Of
course, no one would like to see a state of emergency imposed in
Armenia, crippling the normal course of life, but Ter Petrossian
himself must be the last one to complain about it, since in 1990 he
was the one who ordered armored cars to crush the demonstrations,
following rigged elections. If his actions were justified at that
time, what other alternative was left to the present government to
calm the situation?

But what is more dangerous is to invite foreign governments
to interfere in the internal situation of the country and use
their leverage to warn the government against its antidemocratic
actions. Besides the political pressures, the most effective ways
for the regional or world powers is to use their economic leverage,
on which hinges Armenia’s lifeline and the future.

The European Union has many grants, but the most significant aid comes
from the US through its annual aid package, which is already dwindling
from year to year. But what is most dangerous is the Millennium
Challenge project, which is contingent upon Armenia’s democratic
process and economic reform. That is the most effective weapon in the
arsenal of the Bush administration, which is significantly delaying
to recognize the election results and congratulate the new president.

Ter-Petrossian blames the West for "the deafening silence," all
the while criticizing the OSCE observers for approving the election
results. He further appeals to the US government by asking a particular
action.

"What do the people of Armenia expect from the West, and the United
States in particular? At the very least, we expect a strong and
unequivocal condemnation of the violence that occurred on March
1… This condemnation should accompany a sternwarning…"

Ter-Petrossian’s popularity is not in question here, nor would any
one try to applaud the emergency role.

But what is very serious is to appeal to outside forces, which
are looking for any pretext to tighten the noose around Armenia and
strangulate it economically. The US and Russia have a confrontational
posture in the Southern Caucasus and the Cold War era is returning
to that region. Armenia’s cordial ties with Russia and economic
relations with Iran are not looked upon favorably in Washington,
despite the assurances that the US administration "understands"
the underlying causes of those relations. When push comes to shove,
Armenia’s lobbying power in the US may easily be overrun.

Two days later, Ter-Petrossian’s request from the US is echoed in a
nasty editorial on March 7, in the New York Times, under the heading
"Dark Days in Armenia."

It is significant to note that Turkey’s brutal war against the Kurdish
minority, which has caused 40,000 deaths has not yet deserved that
kind of characterization in the editorial columns of the Times.

The Times editorial specifically addresses the most vulnerable aspect
of the US-Armenian relations: "Armenia, embroiled in a lengthy standoff
with neighboring Azerbaijan, is relatively isolated in its own region
and especially values its great relations with the United States,"
according to the editorial.

It then talks about inviting the Bush administration to hit where it
hurts most: "the main responsibility lies with Armenia’s government
leaders, and it is to them that the White House must address its
protests."

And of course we know the nature of these "protests;" to deny
beleaguered Armenia economic help. The continuation of the crisis
is to no one’s advantage and it will damage Armenia irreparably,
which had just begun to give signals of economic recovery.

The crisis can only be resolved internally by engaging opposing
domestic groups. Any outside interference may only further exacerbate
the already tense situation and lead nowhere.

In addition to media orchestration, rallies are being organized on
the West Coast to amplify the media furor and to damage Armenia’s
standing in the political arena. The protests are mainly organized by
expatriates, driven mostly by the guilt feeling of having abandoned
the homeland. The same masses of expatriates were vehemently against
Ter- Petrossian, when he was in power.

It is time to sober up to stop undermining the foundations of
Armenia’s statehood and denying its population direly needed economic
recovery. Armenians seem to be their worst enemies.

By Edmond Azadian, The Armenian Mirror-Spectator Weekly, Published
By Adl Eastern District Committee Of Usa And Canada