AMERICAN ANALYST: THE USA ACTUALLY HAS BEEN LOOKING AT SANCTIONS ON ARMENIA

Azeri Press Agency
March 18 2008
Azerbaijan

Washington. Husniyya Hasanova-APA. Lauren Goodrich, Eurasia analyst
of Stratfor, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. interviewed by APA

– On March 4, in the frontline between Azerbaijani and Armenian
forces were fixed the bloodiest crash. Why did it happen almost at
the same time when the Armenian political crisis was in its highest
point and just couple days after the clash between police and peaceful
demonstrators?

– There were so many things moving at this moment. This type of
political circumstances was not around for Azerbaijan and Armenia for
the past 10 years. It is very interesting time for the region. It is
partly because of the fact that Armenia had internal political chaos,
the fact that the USA have been threatening Armenia with sanctions, the
fact that Russia is pumping a lot of money into Armenia and Azerbaijan,
U.S. is pumping money both countries, and the fact that such region
of the world are very vulnerable because of that situation. So many
interesting things are happening right now that I expect such things
(a violation of ceasefire) happen quite frequently at this moment. I
expect unless Russia and the USA come to different understanding. The
US and West are scrambling to make sure that situation doesn’t escalate
further that where it is now.

– You said that Russia has pumped a lot of money into Azerbaijan
and Armenia. Do you believe that the country, which invested money
in these countries, wants the further escalation of situation in
Nagorno Karabakh?

– I think Russia does at this moment. Moscow does want to see situation
get a lot worse because they know that west doesn’t want see the war
between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and specially the United States. The
United States is so invested in Armenia and Azerbaijan that it is
one of the places where Russia interested in the unstable situation
because it will affect the USA in Washington. The USA at this moment
is going to do everything possible to prevent this escalation. They
are going to that through sanctions, if necessary they can do it
through political intimidations, There are quite options which the
United States have. I spoke with the office of Condoleezza Rice about
this specifically. Her office said that the quote itself was published
out of context but the USA actually has been looking at sanctions on
Armenia since March, 2007. At this time, the President George Bush was
looking at possible sanctioning Armenia 50% on economic aid and 30%
on military aid. It was the time when the pipeline between Armenia
and Iran was going on and you know that the USA and Iran are in a
very difficult situation. They (the White House) decided that they
are going to put sanctions on table and because of that Yerevan has
backed off from Iran in small existence.

But now the sanctions have written again because of internal political
situation and the possibility that Armenia and Azerbaijan could be
looking at war. The sanction is a way that the USA thinks that will
make a lot of sense to Armenia because Armenia is so much poor country
that its neighbor Azerbaijan. So these economic cuts will make a huge
difference to Armenia. I believe the USA has pressure on Azerbaijan
too. The problem is that any relations between Azerbaijan and the
USA isn’t laud as the relations between the USA and Armenia because
the Armenian lobby and Diaspora so much bigger and powerful that
Azerbaijani one. I do expect a meeting to be held between both sides
because the USA and France are pushing for meeting to try resolve
what is going on between Armenia and Azerbaijan. One possibility is
at the upcoming NATO conference in April.

– During the clashes between police and civilians in Armenia, where
8 people died, the reaction from West wasn’t as strong as it usually
comes when the government tries to suppress its own population.

Doesn’t it seem to you quite strange?

– I am not sure that it is because of Armenian Diaspora inside of the
United States. It is really tied up in the politics at this moment. I
am not sure that it is because Bush has also been talking about upping
the money going into Armenia and doesn’t want to publicize that the
things are so unstable.

President Bush and the State Department 3 months ago started to talk
about how much money for 2009 the USA is going to give Armenia. The
Bush administration has requested 3 million dollars in extra aid for
Armenia military aid and 300 000 dollars for military training. It
is not just for Armenia but the same amount is being earmarked for
Azerbaijan too. The whole reason why Bush administration is looking
on more money for them is because they worry that Russia is restoring
control in that region and more money is great way to buy them back.

– But the Bush administration already announced 59% aid cut for
Armenia in 2009!!

– It is under consideration and it is not for sure yet. It is
completely up the air and they are waiting how the situation will
play out. Then they will decide do they want sanctions, if they want
to cut aid or they want to give more money to Armenia. It is depend
how the Armenian government will respond to them. If they willing to
call back from aggression with Azerbaijan, if they willing to turn
more to the west.

It is just rumors which I hear on my side, but I heard that there
is going to be meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijan presidents at
NATO summit next month. The meeting will be mediated between the USA
and France. So that where I would look next and but at the same time
a lot of things can happen in next few weeks.