DASH TO ARAGATS: THE CIS COLLECTIVE SECURITY TREATY ORGANIZATION OFFERS MILITARY AID TO ARMENIA
by Victor Litovkin

DEFENSE and SECURITY
March 19, 2008 Wednesday
Russia

SECRETARIAT OF THE CIS COLLECTIVE SECURITY TREATY ORGANIZATION
DENIES CONNECTION BETWEEN THE SITUATION IN THE CAUCASUS AND EXERCISE
BORDER’2008; Azerbaijan is upset by the forthcoming Border’2008.

Skirmishes on the border between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh,
emergency rule in the capital of Armenia in the wake of the
presidential election, tension in the relations between Baku and
Yerevan on the one hand and between Tbilisi and Moscow on the other –
all of that indicates that the situation in the Caucasus is anything
but tranquil. The command exercise Border’2008 the CIS Collective
Security Treaty Organization planned on the slopes of Mountain Aragats
50 kilometers from Yerevan, will probably make things all the more
difficult to handle. The exercise is to take place on the territory of
Armavir, which is the name of the marshal Bagramjan Training Center,
in July and September this year.

Denying the apparent

The Secretariat and United Headquarters of the CIS Collective Security
Treaty Organization deny parallels or connection with the situation
in the Caucasus. "We warned Baku in October 2007 and said the exercise
was not planned against any third country," General Secretary Nikolai
Bordyuzha said. "The legend of the exercise does not stand for any
major movement of troops or military hardware."

Traditional as it is for a command post exercise, the Border’2008
legend cannot help making certain countries of the region wary. A
sovereign state designated "N" and its ally make preparations for an
aggression about to be launched by another sovereign state designated
"X." At first sight, the legend is quite logical and should surprise
no one. Baku in the meantime is prone to threatening Yerevan at the
highest possible level whether or not the upper echelons of the CIS
Collective Security Treaty Organization choose to recognize it.

Border with an Armenian accent

Colonel Ishkhan Matevosjan, Senior Deputy Chief of the Operational
Directorate of the Armenian General Staff, said the Border’2008
legend included several phases. Phase one will be centered around
preparations of Armenian state structures for an aggression.

The legend assumes that the president of Armenia issues an order
to initiate preparations to repel an aggression on March 12-14. The
Security Council and Cabinet meet to work out the decision to appeal
to the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization. Once the plea
for aid is received, the Council of Defense Ministers and United
Headquarters of the international organization evaluate the situation
and the arrangement of forces and decide to take diplomatic and
political efforts to put an end to the aggression and have foreign
troops withdrawn from Armenia and, simultaneously, to aid Armenia
with military hardware and contingents. It will constitute the second
phase of the exercise.

Phases three and four of the exercise involve joint defense. tactical
exercise with live-fire elements constituting phases three and four
will involve almost 4,000 servicemen and civilians of the Armenian
Defense Ministry. The nucleus of the fighting group will include
motorized infantry, tanks, artillery pieces, communications units,
scouts, and units with jammers. Air defense complexes and aircraft
(fighters and ground-strafers) will be deployed. On the other hand,
neither firing at air craft nor air strikes as such are planned.

Sources from the United Headquarters point out that it is going to be
a defense operation and nothing else. "The CIS Collective Security
Treaty Organization does not plan to attack anyone," to quote Major
General Sergei Chuvakin of the United Headquarters. "Our organization
is purely defensive, you know."

It is only Russian and Armenian servicemen that will participate in
the exercise as such, but all other countries of the CIS Collective
Security Treaty Organization will be present as well (3-5 observers
each).

Even non-members may get an invitation to observe the exercise.

Matevosjan said that all military attaches accredited in Yerevan would
be present at the exercise as guests. This decision has already been
made by Armenian leadership.

Cumbersome circumstances

There are questions nobody from the Secretariat or the United
Headquarters would answer. As a matter of fact, however, answers to
these questions will be searched all the same. For example, what if
Baku and Tbilisi (the capitals known for their somewhat skeptical
attitude towards the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization)
deny permits to military planes of the Organization to fly across
the Azerbaijani and Georgian airspace? Not even the planes carrying
servicemen, just the ones with observers in them? Representatives of
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Russia, and Uzbekistan.

Like Kaliningrad for Russia, Armenia is an enclave for the CIS
Collective Security Treaty Organization, an enclave surrounded with
not particularly amiable states like Turkey and Azerbaijan.

"Have no fears on that score," an anonymous source in the Secretariat
said. "For starters, the observers will board ordinary passenger
flights, and nobody is going to cancel regular Minsk-Yerevan or
Astana-Yerevan flights because of them. Secondly, the exercise will
last three months and all these ill-wishers will get fed up with
keeping tabs on who flew where. No point in doing so, you know…"

All right, this is simply going to be an exercise. A relatively
small one. But what if push comes to shove and Armenia really finds
itself in need of allies’ aide in the form of military hardware and
personnel? What then? "Remember how it was in the Great Patriotic
War," one of the experts commented. "The way to the Caucasus from
the north was out of bounds. This state of affairs left the Iranian
airspace only where we had troops…" Russian diplomats claim that
the southern neighbor is prepared to come to Russia’s help in this
case. On the other hand, other routes must exist as well. In theory,
one may imagine a breakthrough to Armenia from other directions.

>From our folders:

The 102nd Russian Military Base in Gyumri (former Leninakan, Armenia),
includes three motorized infantry regiments (i.e. 330 BMP-1 and BMP-2
infantry fighting vehicles), one armored battalion (74 T-72 tanks),
an artillery regiment (70 pieces), a division of S-300V air defense
complexes, and eighteen MIG-29 fighters. These and other units total
3,170 servicemen.