STATE OF EMERGENCY ENDS IN ARMENIA
Marianna Grigoryan

EurasiaNet
March 21 2008
NY

In Yerevan, the troops are gone, and the newspapers and protestors are
back. Armenia’s state of emergency came to a peaceful end on March 21,
but, for most Armenians, one unanswered question lingers on: What next?

The first test of this uneasy calm came with a "silent protest"
in central Yerevan by opposition supporters against the official
results of the February presidential vote and the March 1 violence
between police and protestors that left at least one policeman and
seven civilians dead. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Late in the afternoon of March 21, thousands of participants walked
in complete silence along a route used for earlier protests while
armed police stood mutely to one side. By early evening, the protest
had started to break up. No clashes between police and protestors
were seen.

Many Armenians had earlier worried that the demonstration could spark
a harsh reaction from security forces. During the 20-day state of
emergency, parliament banned actions that could to lead to a "forcible
overthrow of the constitutional order" or that could spread religious
or ethnic hatred, encourage violence or violate "others’ constitutional
rights and freedoms." Under the law, "reliable information" from the
police or National Security Service would be sufficient to trigger
the ban.

But officials, no doubt eager for a return to calm, made no move to
stop the protest.

At a March 20 press conference, outgoing President Robert Kocharian
took pains to emphasize that the situation in Armenia has stabilized
since his March 1 state of emergency order. "Immediately after it
was introduced, the situation calmed down, an opportunity was created
for consolidating that stabilization process with concrete actions,"
Kocharian told reporters in his office. The Armenian leader added that
no violations of the order had been recorded and that the police and
military "showed restraint" in their work. "[A]n overwhelming majority
of the population took these measures in their stride," he added.

Nevertheless, many Yerevan residents maintain that tensions about
the March 1 violence are still running strong.

"In reality, a tense situation has been created when we felt our
lack of power," commented Anna Israelian, a senior reporter for the
daily newspaper Aravot. "We were not secure. Anger, powerlessness,
indignation – that was all we felt as we did not have an opportunity
to respond to what was happening and had to publish only official
information."

Under Kocharian’s original order, media could only publish or broadcast
government-issued reports. The restrictions were later lifted, but,
many independent newspapers kept their operations shut down. Access
to certain news sites was blocked within the country.

Not surprisingly, politicians allied with presidential candidate Levon
Ter-Petrosian, leader of the election protests, also see no sign
of calm. "The situation has clearly not subsided," senior Heritage
Party parliamentarian Stepan Safarian told EurasiaNet. "The crisis
has deepened and a tinderbox situation has been created. And it is
very difficult to say in this situation what will be the agenda or
the next steps will be."

Ter-Petrosian himself, however, has asserted that his movement does, in
fact, have a plan. "We will not retreat, we will struggle till the end,
until this hated, criminal, gangster-state regime falls. We are not
afraid of jails, house arrests and threats. They are very little men
to frighten us," Ter-Petrosian fumed at a March 11 press conference at
his home in Yerevan. The former Armenian president asserts that he has
effectively been kept under house arrest since the protest crackdown.

Some analysts, however, believe that, under the circumstances,
Ter-Petrosian’s assurances are less than definite. Almost all leaders
of the previous opposition rallies have been detained. Based on
official figures, more than 800 individuals were taken in by police
following the March 1 clash, and some 106 remain in detention.

Nonetheless, one pro-opposition political analyst says the opposition
will somehow struggle on. "We have a precedent when the leaders of
the Karabakh committee were detained, but new ones emerged," said
Aghasi Yenokian in reference to the group, of which Ter-Petrosian was
a member, that led the campaign for Armenia’s independence from the
Soviet Union. "This time, I also think there will be such solutions."

To reporters, Ter-Petrosian echoed that view, affirming that "[Mikhail]
Gorbachev did not dare frighten us. We achieved what we wanted."

Not all Yerevan residents agree, however.

Pensioner Anahit Tadevosian blames the ex-president’s protest campaign
for the March 1 violence. "I don’t understand why people supported
Levon Ter-Petrosian. It is he who is to blame for all that happened
on March 1," she said. "Don’t they remember what poor lives they
had at that time?" Tadevosian added in reference to Ter-Petrosian’s
1991-1998 tenure in power, during which time Armenia experienced
economic turmoil amid an armed conflict with Azerbaijan.

One middle-aged Yerevan taxi driver disagrees, however, saying that
most of his customers now oppose the authorities. "An overwhelming
majority are furious about these latest events," commented Ashot
Mkrtchian. "I don’t know how this hatred and hot atmosphere will
turn out."

According to ruling Republican Party of Armenia spokesman Eduard
Sharmazanov, "everything will proceed normally."

"Their [opposition] goal was not to win in elections, but to commit
a coup d’etat," Sharmazanov asserted. "What is important now is the
consolidation of the nation. As for our victory [at the polls …

people showed their trust in us, and [party head and president-elect]
Serzh Sarkisian will do everything for Armenia to become a strong,
stable and democratic country."

In comments last week to students, Sarkisian said that he did not
rule out that additional actions could be taken against Ter-Petrosian.

Sarkisian, the official winner of the February 19 presidential
election, will be inaugurated as president on April 9. Reactions
from the international community to the protest crackdown, however,
have fueled uncertainty over how relations with his administration
will unfold.

Or how they will affect $236 million in US development assistance to
Armenia. In a March 11 letter to President Robert Kocharian, Millennium
Challenge Corporation (MCC) Chief Executive Officer John Danilovich
warned that "recent events could have negative effects on Armenia’s
eligibility for MCC funding." A review of MCC’s work in Armenia "in
light of these events, including the suspension of media freedoms
and the imposition of a state of emergency" is currently underway,
Danilovich wrote.

For now, though, the Kocharian administration has given no public
sign of alarm at the prospect.

"They can terminate the program at any moment," Kocharian conceded
on March 20. "This program can always have implications other than
economic ones. So, we must always be ready that this program may be
suspended. I express my regret that the program may be suspended,
but we want to be notified of that in good time so that we know and
can plan what we do."

In a March 14 interview with Voice of America’s Russian service,
however, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and
Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza sounded a conciliatory note. The United
States and Armenia, he stated, should work together on development
of democracy.

"What happened in Armenia is a tragedy since people died. It is
a serious blow to democracy. It can be viewed as a revolution or
a serious public collision. The elections went beyond the bounds
of a normal process," Bryza said. "In the big picture, it doesn’t
matter what we call this. The important thing is that Armenia and
America should work together to restore the progressive development
of democracy. I think that’s realistic."

Meanwhile, Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights Thomas
Hammarberg, who recently concluded a three-day visit to Armenia,
has called for an investigation "which is independent, impartial,
transparent and perceived as credible by the whole population." The
international community, he said in a March 20 report, stands ready
to offer any assistance needed.

Such a request, though, may not be immediate. The call for an
independent investigation, Kocharian told reporters on March 20,
"left me with the impression that Europe and the Republic of Armenia
understand this word a little bit differently."

"There is no more independent body in the Republic of Armenia than
the Prosecutor’s Office," he commented.

Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a reporter for the ArmeniaNow
weekly in Yerevan.