NewsAhead Agency, UT –
March 24 2008
Azerbaijan marks 90th anniversary of 1918 conflict with Armenia as
"Day of Genocide."
A flashpoint?
In 2008 it will be 90 years since territorial disputes between
Armenia and Azerbaijan resulted in a 3-day round of bloodletting and
expulsions that Baku regards as genocide against Azerbaijan. And 10
years ago in 2008 the late president of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev,
declared Mar 31 the "Day of Genocide" to commemorate the event. If
there is still a deadlock in the negotiations between the two
countries over Nagorno Karabakh, a de facto independent republic
located in the South Caucasus, the anniversary could trigger renewed
conflict.
The Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 provoked ethnic violence in the
area, and more erupted in 1918 when Armenia and Azerbaijan became
independent and each claimed Karabakh. Soviet domination of both
countries suppressed the worst of the hostilities between the two for
decades, but it exploded again in 1988 with the approaching breakup
of the Soviet Union and the return of independence to both countries.
The present deadlock coincides with the suspension of ceasefire
monitoring along the long line of trenches that divides Armenian and
Azerbaijani forces around Karabakh, and increased warnings that the
dispute – in which fighting was halted in 1994 – might once again
lead to open conflict.
The OSCE Minsk Group was created in 1992 by the Conference on
Security and Cooperation in Europe, now Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe, to encourage a peaceful, negotiated
resolution to the conflict. At this stage in the negotiations
compromises are laid out in a document called "Basic Principles." It
is awaiting the signatures of the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan. According to a report by the Zurich-based International
Relations and Security network in December, the political climate in
both countries ahead of presidential elections in 2008 makes it
unlikely the document will be signed.
Azerbaijan is growing in confidence both economically and
diplomatically, according to the ISN report, and officials have said
frequently that their "patience is running out" and they are
considering the military option. On 30 Oct, the current president,
Ilham Aliev, said, "We should be ready to liberate the occupied
territories by military means at any moment." Aliev boasts that his
oil-rich country’s fast-growing defense budget, which now stands at
more than US $1 billion, should increase to a point where it exceeds
Armenia’s entire annual budget.
On 27 November, speaking at a meeting of defense chiefs from
post-Soviet states, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiev said,
"As long as Azerbaijani territory is occupied by Armenia, the chance
of war is close to 100 percent." Dec/07
aijan_genocide_Mar_08.htm