ARMENIAN POLITICAL LIFE AND NATO EXPANSION
By A. Haroutiunian

AZG Armenian Daily
28/03/2008

Regional

Armenia not Concerned with Georgia’s NATO Membership?

The Armenian Center for National And Strategic Research (ACNSR)
organized a discussion on NATO expansion in Caucasus. About 50 people
were invited to the discussion, but only a minor part of them was
present to the event.

The participants of the discussion rather spoke about the inner
political situation in Armenia rather than the issues connected with
the North-Atlantic alliance.

However, the first Rapporteur, former Vice Defence Minister Vahan
Shirkhanian, pointed out three possible ways of development of the
NATO activities in Georgia.

According to Mr. Shirkhanian, Georgia may soon become a full NATO
member by the localized Balkan scenario, and restore its territorial
and administrative integrity with the aid of NATO forces. In this
circumstances the Russia-Georgia relations would worsen even more,
Armenia would face serious troubles with its vital communications with
abroad and the military actions in Georgia would encourage Azerbaijan
to recommence the armed conflict in Karabakh.

According to the second scenario, observed by Shirkhanian, Georgia
would be given the green light on the coming NATO Summit in Bucharest
and Georgia-NATO negotiations on membership would be started. This
would encourage Azerbaijan to start in its turn similar negotiations
with NATO. Thus, Armenia would remain alone amidst three NATO-oriented
states.

Shirkhanian said that most probably NATO will decide not to decide
to start membershiop negotiations with Georgia yet and will beware
of provoking armed clashes in the region.

The idea of ACNSR expert Hovsep Khurshudian’s speech was rather
vague. With a few words, it may be said that Kurshudian tried to
convince the listeners that the situation inside Armenia is so bad
that the issue of Georgia’s NATO membership is of little importance
compared with that.

Independent expert Manvel Sargsian, instead of speaking on the topic
of his report, which was also the possible membership of Georgia in
NATO, was deliberating vaguely on "some forces" in our region, which
were suggestedly "the West" and Russia. it came out from his words
that there is no power in the world which could match "the West",
and even Russia’s chances to oppose it are close to zero.