A LESSON FOR AZERBAIJAN ON HOW TO WIN A VOTE AND LOSE A CAUSE
By Harut Sassounian
AZG Armenian Daily
02/04/2008
Armenia-Azerbaijan
The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on March 14 reaffirming
the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, reiterating the right of
return of internally displaced Azerbaijanis, and calling for withdrawal
of Armenian forces from "occupied territories."
Since the resolution was proposed by Azerbaijan and opposed by Armenia,
one would have assumed that Baku would be elated with the outcome
of the vote, while Yerevan would be licking its wounds. In reality,
neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia was happy with the result.
Azerbaijan was displeased for several reasons. To begin with, just
20% of UN member states (39 out of 193) voted in favor of the Azeri
resolution. Most of the states supporting the resolution were fellow
Muslim countries (28 out of 39). Even then, less than half (28 out
of 57) of the states belonging to the Organization of the Islamic
Conference voted with Azerbaijan, despite intensive lobbying and
threats by Baku not to sell oil and gas to countries not backing
the resolution.
Azerbaijan was also displeased that 100 UN member states abstained
and 47 others were absent during the vote. Azeri officials were even
more unhappy that among the 7 states voting against the resolution
were such major powers as the United States, France and Russia —
the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group of mediators on the Artsakh
conflict. Matthew Bryza, the US co-chair of the Minsk Group, defended
the US vote against Azerbaijan by stating that the resolution was
"one-sided" and that it "did not reflect the fair and balanced
nature of the [Minsk Group] proposal on the table." The Azeri Press
Agency (APA) claimed that the U.S., France and Russia not only
voted against the resolution, but also actively lobbied against its
adoption. Mr. Bryza disclosed in an interview with the APA that he
had cautioned Azeri officials not to proceed with the resolution.
Instead of listening to Mr. Bryza’s wise counsel, the Azeri leadership
recklessly went ahead and forced a vote on a resolution that was
not going to get supported by the overwhelming majority of the UN
member states, thereby damaging Baku’s interests! In the aftermath of
this fiasco, Azerbaijan declared a diplomatic war against the whole
world. Azeri officials announced that they would settle political and
economic scores with all those states that voted against, abstained
from or were absent during the UN General Assembly vote. This means
that Azerbaijan will end up antagonizing more than 150 countries —
80% of the world’s nation states!
Furthermore, Azeri officials have sharply criticized the U.S., Russia
and France for their opposition to the resolution, and have indicated
that they are exploring ways to dissolve or replace the Minsk Group
which would completely set back the possibility of resolving the
Artsakh conflict in the near future.
Azerbaijan has thus succeeded in antagonizing the three most powerful
countries in the world.
On the Armenian side, even though Yerevan did not win the vote and
did not succeed in blocking the resolution, it took advantage of the
Azeri blunder, to announce that Armenia reserves the right to recognize
Artsakh as an independent republic, if Azerbaijan tries to side-step
the long-standing negotiating process through the Minsk Group.
Since the Baku leadership did such a good job of over-reacting to the
UN vote and undermining its interests by antagonizing more than 150
states which did not vote for the resolution, Armenia does not have
to exert much effort to counter the UN decision, particularly since
it is advisory in nature and does not have a binding effect. Dozens
of similar resolutions have been adopted by the UN General Assembly
for decades asking Turkey to get out of Northern Cyprus, and Israel
to return the "occupied territories." Turkey, Israel and other states
have simply ignored such "toothless" resolutions. Armenia will probably
do the same.
Finally, Pres. Ilham Aliyev’s increasingly frequent threats to resolve
the Artsakh conflict by force are not likely to intimidate the Armenian
side. If Azerbaijan were militarily prepared to attack, it would have
done so without providing advance warning to Armenia. The fact is
that Azerbaijan is not capable of invading Artsakh, let alone start
a war with Armenia.
Azerbaijan is still suffering from the tragic consequences of its
last failed attack on Artsakh.
Even though no one welcomes war, should Azerbaijan attack when it is
not militarily ready to do so, it may end up losing even more territory
and cause the destruction of its valuable energy infrastructure.
From: Baghdasarian