ARMENIA: YEREVAN ROLLS OUT ITS RHETORICAL GUNS, AS NAGORNO-KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS STUMBLES
Haroutiun Khachatrian

EurasiaNet
April 4 2008
NY

The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is passing through a rough patch.

Armenia has vowed to recognize the breakaway region if Azerbaijan
tries to make a break with the current negotiating format. Some local
analysts, however, see powerful checks on Armenia’s ability to take
such unilateral action.

The United Nations General Assembly’s March 14 passage of a resolution
recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, and calling on
Armenia to withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani territories, unleashed
the latest round of rhetorical jousting. The measure was supported by
39 UN members; seven countries, including the United States, France
and Russia — leaders of the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe’s Minsk Group, which oversees the Karabakh peace process —
opposed the measure.

In the weeks since the UN vote, Azerbaijan has aired grievances with
the existing negotiating format, and has expressed frustration over
the failure of the Minsk Group members to support the resolution.

That frustration, coupled with recent statements by President Ilham
Aliyev touting Azerbaijan’s growing military strength, have been
interpreted in Yerevan as an intent by Baku to ditch the current
negotiation framework — and to attempt to impose a Karabakh settlement
through the renewed use of force. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

Azerbaijan has denied that it plans to abandon peace talks.

Nevertheless, Armenia has rolled out its own diplomatic weapon:
recognition of the self-declared Karabakh Republic as an independent
country.

Though Armenia has supported the region’s economy and defense
structures since its 1991 independence declaration, formal recognition
of Karabakh as a country has never seriously been floated as a
policy option. According to Robert Kocharian, that scenario could
soon change. "Azerbaijan made an attempt to test our toughness,"
the outgoing president told a March 20 news conference in Yerevan. "I
have a suspicion that if they are convinced that Armenia and Karabakh
have grown weaker, they will again make an attempt to achieve success."

But are such statements a bluff or a declaration of actual intentions?

In an apparent attempt to reinforce perceptions that he was
serious, Kocharian, a Karabakh native and the region’s former de
facto president, on March 31 traveled to the Karabakh capital of
Stepanakert to meet with the region’s current leader, Bako Sahakian.

On April 1, Kocharian was quoted as saying by the Panorama.am
news website that while Armenian leaders pondered the recognition
question, an immediate-term measure could be the conclusion of a
formal Armenia-Karabakh security pact "for the neutralization of the
Azerbaijani threat."

Kocharian’s time in office is limited, however. On April 9, Armenia
will inaugurate a new president, incumbent Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian, a fellow Karabakh native who served as defense minister
under Kocharian’s Karabakh administration. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].

Some analysts believe Sarkisian’s ability to take bold action on
Karabakh is constrained by domestic and foreign considerations. Given
the need to calm domestic tension in the wake of the March 1 crackdown
on opposition protestors, Sarkisian is seen as unlikely to opt for the
internationally controversial move of Karabakh recognition, suggested
Sergei Minasyan, deputy director of Yerevan’s Caucasus Media Institute
and an expert on regional political and military problems.

A former aide to Karabakh’s former de facto president, Arkady
Ghukassian, agreed. "Kocharian’s words are just another attempt
at blackmailing Azerbaijan, which may or may not be successful,"
said Manvel Sarkisian, now an independent expert in Yerevan. "They
do not seem to have a prepared policy in this direction," he said in
reference to the Armenian government.

Armenia’s ability to recognize is further constrained by Yerevan’s
close ties to Russia, as well as the international flap relating to
Kosovo’s declaration of independence. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. As part of his strategy for solidifying his hold
on power, Sarkisian traveled to Moscow in late March and pledged to
bolster trade and strategic ties with Moscow. Thus, it would seem
Armenia’s actions stand to be influenced more than ever by Kremlin
policy considerations.

Russian leaders of late have been outspoken critics of Kosovo’s move to
break away from Russia’s cultural cousin Serbia: more specifically,
the Kremlin has condemned the quick recognition offered by the
United States and Western European nations of the new country’s
independence. This has created a dilemma for Armenian leaders,
according to Russian media outlets. Apparently officials in Yerevan
have mooted a scenario in which, if they actually were to take the
step of recognizing Karabakh, they would also want to acknowledge
Kosovo’s independence in an effort to lend added legitimacy to their
actions. Sarkisian, during his March 24 trip to Moscow, reportedly
sounded out Russian leaders on this idea — a sort of ‘what if’
proposition — and got a very chilly reaction.

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a freelance writer based in
Yerevan. Sergei Blagov in Moscow supplied additional reporting for
the story.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress