ARMENIA: BETWEEN A STATE OF EMERGENCY AND A PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION
By Haroutiun Khachatrian
Caucaz.com
April 7 2008
Georgia
The February 19 elections and the March 1 tragedy have revealed a deep
split in Armenian society. Public debate in the country is focused on
finding a way out of the crisis. While a new governmental coalition
is taking shape prior to the official presidential inauguration on
April 9, the opposition continues to make its views known, despite
restrictions. Rumours have also circulated about possible negotiations
between official election winner Serzh Sarkisian and opposition leader
Levon Ter-Petrosian.
The tragedy was the March 1 clashes that left eight dead and more
injured. The 20-day state of emergency imposed on Yerevan that evening
held without any apparent violation, due largely to supporters loyal
to former president Levon Ter-Petrosian who respected the leader’s
call for respect of the emergency rule.
Ter-Petrosian had run for presidency in the February 19 elections,
pulling in 22 percent of the vote, according to official results.
With more than 52 percent of the official vote, Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian was declared winner of the contest, despite claims by
Ter-Petrosian and his supporters that the vote was rigged and that
Ter-Petrosian was the actual winner.
The events of February 19 and March 1 reveal a schism in Armenian
society. While Sarkisian certainly has his supporters, many Armenians
are severely critical of the ruling authorities and have taken
great risks to demonstrate their opposition. This activism prompted
Ter-Petrosian to declare "I woke up society. It is probably the most
important deal of my life."
State of emergency
During the state of emergency, Sarkisian and his supporters scored a
number of key victories. First, on March 8 the Constitutional Court
rejected Ter-Petrosian’s appeal to nullify the February 19 vote.
Instead, the court confirmed Sarkisian’s election as the next
president. Second, more than a hundred people were arrested on
charges of organising or participating in the violent actions
of March 1. Among the detained are three members of the National
Assembly. One of them, Sasun Mikaelian, was reported to possess
illegal weapons. A number of people, including Khachatur Sukiasian,
another MP, are in hiding. Third, the authorities amended a law on
public demonstrations to allow the government to deny permission to
hold rallies, provided the police have information that demonstration
may cause disorder. Subsequent requests for pro-Ter-Petrosian rallies
have been rejected.
All of these changes took place in the presence of visiting political
delegations from the Council of Europe, the European Union and the
United States. Most of the foreign groups arrived with the goal of
helping the government and Ter-Petrosian establish dialogue to mediate
the situation. The Council of Europe and the OSCE Office of Democratic
Institutions and Human Rights criticised the restrictions on public
demonstrations. In return the Armenian authorities spoke of their
"possible revision" in the near future. The international delegates
also called on the authorities to stop human rights violations,
particularly politically-motivated arrests and detentions. While the
authorities claim that only those involved in violent actions are being
detained, Ter-Petrosian has said that his supporters and activists,
including some who were not in Yerevan on March 1, are being targeted.
A new coalition
On March 21, the state of emergency was lifted. Troops controlling
central Yerevan were pulled out and restrictions on mass media,
including blocks on national and international websites, were lifted.
A four-party coalition government agreement was also signed. Led
by Sarkisian’s Republican party and its previous coalition partner,
Bargavach Hayastan (Prosperous Armenia), the coalition also contains
the ARF Dashnaktsutiun party. That party’s inclusion is somewhat
surprising, given that its presidential candidate, Vahan Hovhannesian,
had resigned following the news that he received only six percent
of the vote and the party had hinted that it might withdraw from the
government in protest of the elections’ poor organisation.
By far, however, the most unexpected coalition member is the Orinats
Yerkir (Country of Law) opposition party. That party’s leader Artur
Baghdasarian garnered 17 percent of the February 19 vote after running
on a radical opposition platform. Many expected him to join forces
with Ter-Petrosian, but claiming to be acting "for the sake of the
country" on February 29 Baghdasarian announced a 180 turn to join
Sarkisian in the government. Although no agreement on the distribution
of ministerial portfolios has been reported, Artur Baghdasian is
expected to take the post of Secretary of the Security Council.
With the formation of the coalition, the overwhelming majority of the
National Assembly’s 131 members support the future government. Only
seven members of the Zharangutiun (Heritage) party and four other
deputies, three of them detained and one in hiding, stand in opposition
of the Sarkisian administration.
Continued opposition
Apart from one trip to the Constitutional Court, Ter-Petrosian has
reportedly not left his residence since March 1. Since the tragic
events that Saturday he has made only one public appearance,
an interview, the content of which, due to media restrictions,
local media did not report. He said that given the fact that the
Constitutional Court’s verdict came during a state of emergency,
Sarkisian’s legitimacy is doubtful, He also said he was ready to
co-operate with authorities according to the conditions suggested
by the EU, which call for the release of political detainees and the
carrying out of an independent international investigation into the
events of March 1.
Because all the public events have been banned, Ter-Petrosian’s
supporters have organised nightly "political walks" through downtown
Yerevan. Co-ordinated over the internet, up to one thousand people
with otherwise nothing in common, have been walking through the city
streets carrying candles and portraits of those who died on March 1.
Each day police have arrested several of the walkers, but in all
cases they have been released later the same day.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that the political teams of Sarkisian
and Ter-Petrosian are holding negotiations. The nature of relations
between the two political heavyweights will likely come into focus
only after Sarkisian is inaugurated on April 9.