POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARMENIA AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Eurasian Home Analytical Resource
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April 9 2008
Russia

Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of Caucasian Institute of Mass Media,
Yerevan.

After the inauguration of president-elect, Serzh Sargsyan, the new
government will be formed. What changes can be expected now? The
foreign policy will not change dramatically. Regardless of the
government staff, Armenia will maintain friendly relations with the
countries it is on good terms with, it will continue to work towards
the strategic partnership and ‘complimentarism’ that is a cornerstone
of the Armenian foreign policy.

The Nagorno-Karabakh issue predetermines Armenia’s foreign policy,
as do the country’s four neighbors. Armenia does not have diplomatic
relations with Turkey, its relations with Azerbaijan need no comment.

Armenia is on good terms with Georgia that has strained relations with
Russia. And Iran has bad relations with the USA. All those factors
make the Armenian foreign policy conservative and successive.

So, there cannot be drastic changes in this sphere. It may happen
if inadequate politicians come to power, but no such candidates took
part in the election campaign.

The domestic policy can be changed. There has been very important
progress that may be left unnoticed by foreign countries but it is of
fundamental importance to the South Caucasus region. For the first time
in the modern history of the post-Soviet South Caucasian countries
the President resigned of his own free will after two presidential
terms. Besides, the referendum on amending the Constitution was held
under Robert Kocharyan, on November 27, 2005, and the latter could use
that chance to prolong his presidency. But he didn’t. For the first
time, in the South Caucasian countries the power was transferred not
in the wake of a coup d’etat or a "color" revolution and not within
a family like in Azerbaijan.

Therefore, the new leader can reshuffle the government. It is very
important to the Armenian society, since the replacements of political
figures would mean the internal political changes. The questions
whether the government will be technocratic or political, whether
the politicians, who annoy the Armenian society, will be dismissed,
whether fighting corruption will become one of the key priorities,
etc are of importance. All of that will be clear within two weeks
following the appointment of the new government.

As regards the opposition, now it includes only the forces backing
former first President Levon Ter-Petrossian. All the other opposition
forces, including Artur Bagdasaryan, who got slightly fewer votes in
the presidential election than Ter-Petrossian, joined the coalition.

Ter-Petrossian has been keeping silence for about two weeks. I believe
that after the inauguration he will make a statement. He is likely
to say that he will continue to carry on political struggle without
recognizing the election returns. He may decide to put an end to the
political struggle, but that is less probable. The third scenario is
the continuation of the political struggle within the framework of
the existing system in order to prepare for the next parliamentary
elections.

All those points are significant because the Armenian society is
split. The dispersal of the opposition rally came quite as a shock to
the society. That occurred in Armenia for the first time. For the first
time people were killed. The society insists that those events should
be investigated. A part of the society is ready to take radical steps.

Under the circumstances the authorities and the opposition’s behavior
influences lessening of social tension and overcoming the division.

Everybody understands that something should be done to stop the
state of a shock. In all, according to the official data, about 40%
of the people voted for main opposition candidates Ter-Petrossian and
Bagdasaryan. This is an enormous figure. If the authorities ignore
those people, the protest marches can take place sooner or later. The
authorities must understand that and take necessary measures. Judging
by the statements made by the authorities, they realize it. We will
know in the near future what the authorities will do.