SERGEI MARKEDONOV: CONFLICT IS BEING REKINDLED AGAIN
by Rzayev

DEFENSE and SECURITY
April 9, 2008 Wednesday
Russia

The arms race keeps Azerbaijan and Armenia off each other’s throats
in all earnest, but only for the time being

AN INTERVIEW WITH RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST SERGEI MARKEDONOV;
An interview with Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov,
department chief of the Political and Military Analysis Institute.

Question: Your opinion on the situation with the Azerbaijani-Armenian
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, please? The discord between chairmen
of the OSCE Minsk Group and official Baku is undeniable nowadays. The
escalation of tension on the front line in Nagorno-Karabakh is
unprecedented…

Sergei Markedonov: I believe that all conflicts on the territory of
the late Soviet Union – not only the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
– are being rekindled nowadays. The involved parties’ motives are
different, of course. No longer satisfied with the status quo, the
defeated parties would like to turn the tables. The winners (granted
that the term is somewhat dubious) see Kosovo as a precedent they hope
to use to promote their objectives. Afraid that the Kosovo precedent
may be applied elsewhere, post-Soviet countries with territorial
problems take steps of military and diplomatic nature.

All of that is reviving the currently latent conflicts. As a matter
of fact, the conflicts we are talking about are not exactly latent.

Changes taking place in conflict areas are not necessarily for the
better. Violence is mounting. It tripled in Nagorno-Karabakh over
the last twelve months. Conflicts will soon cease being latent.

Question: Do you then anticipate the renewal of hostilities between
Armenia and Azerbaijan? When do you expect them?

Sergei Markedonov: What is happening does not mean that the hostilities
are about to be commenced, right now or even tomorrow.

What we witness are attempts on the part of an involved party
(Azerbaijan in this particular case) to change the existing
situation. Baku’s threats to withdraw from the OSCE Minsk Group and
settle the conflict by other ways and means do not exactly facilitate
the status quo. Add here the aggressive militarist rhetoric which
is definitely dangerous because it creates a certain atmosphere and
inflames society.

And yet, it does not mean that the hostilities will be resumed in
the near future. Azerbaijan and Armenia are involved in a regional
arms race. Each country demonstrates certain successes in this sphere.

Azerbaijan never misses a chance to boast of its growing military
budget enabling it to buy weapons and military hardware. Armenia is
less redundant because it views itself as the winner. Objectively,
it is this very arms race that keeps Azerbaijan and Armenia off each
other’s throats. And yet, the process of rekindling the fires of the
conflict is well under way. It may eventually result in hostilities
or, hopefully, in some progress in the talks.

Question: What is your opinion of Russia’s stand on the UN resolution
concerning situation on the occupied Azerbaijani territories (March 14,
2008)? All chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group including Russia voted
against its adoption. Unlike Paris and Washington, however, Moscow
encouraged other UN members to vote against the resolution, much to
Azerbaijan’s chagrin. What about impartiality expected from OSCE Minsk
Group chairmen. Moscow voted against the resolution i.e. for Armenia…

Sergei Markedonov: Well, so did India, for example. Besides, all OSCE
Minsk Group chairmen were unanimous on the matter. By the way, that’s
what makes the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict different from the ones in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia and the United States disagree over
these latter conflicts. In this case, however, it was decided against
seconding this Azerbaijani resolution. On the other hand, I wouldn’t
call this stand anti-Azerbaijani. Better call it not pro-Azerbaijani,
if you see the difference. There are different angles the UN voting
may be viewed on from. One may call the outcome of the voting a triumph
because 39 UN members voted "aye". On the other hand, it may be termed
as a defeat as well because all OSCE Minsk Group chairmen voted "nay".

Question: But OSCE Minsk Group chairmen could abstain from voting or
miss the meeting altogether, right? Do you think it is possible for
OSCE Minsk Group chairmen to win Baku’s trust back again. Has there
been any such trust in OSCE Minsk Group chairman in the first place?

Sergei Markedonov: I do not think official Baku ever trusted them
completely. Baku has been critical of France for a long time already,
and also of Russia for that matter. The United States has been mostly
spared criticism. Until now. This is probably the first time when
Azerbaijani diplomacy is so critical of the Americans. In fact, Baku
always takes any failure to vote the way it wants as a hostile move.

Russia, France, and the United States meanwhile have never taken it
as voting for or against anyone. That’s a major distinction, a major
difference in interpretation.

Question: NATO summit begins in Bucharest, Romania, soon. Georgia
and Ukraine earnestly hope that the summit will become a milestone
on their way into NATO. Will it become a signal to Baku as well? What
do you think of Azerbaijan’s chances to join NATO?

Sergei Markedonov: I do not expect Georgia and Ukraine with their
coveted membership to become the central issue of the NATO summit.

Afghanistan is number one issue on its agenda. Moreover, NATO will
also discuss the situation in some countries of the Balkans that are
about to become full-fledged members of the Alliance. In short, I’m
quite skeptical of Georgia’s chances and I do not perceive Azerbaijan
in NATO. As a matter of fact, Armenia and Azerbaijan cooperate with
NATO with more or less equal abandon. Azerbaijan’s cooperation with the
Alliance may be somewhat more energetic, but it remains insignificant.

Question: What do you think of the current Azerbaijan-Russian
relations? What effect does Moscow’s policy with regard to Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has on its bilateral relations with Baku?

Sergei Markedonov: Notice that Moscow never mentions the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict together with the conflicts in
Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or the Trans-Dniester region. I suspect
that the Azerbaijani diplomacy knows it too. In the meantime,
Russian-Azerbaijani relations should serve as an example for the
Russian-Georgian relations. It is possible after all to improve the
latter. I’m convinced that Russia will try to maintain a balance
in its relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Still, they may be
somewhat better with Armenia because Russia has a military base on
its territory and because of some other factors.