OSCE: EFFORTS TO THAW FROZEN CONFLICTS GROWING MORE COMPLICATED
Jean-Christophe Peuch

EurasiaNet
April 16 2008
NY

In his first public appearance as chairman-in-office of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Finland’s
new foreign minister, Alexander Stubb, called for enhanced efforts
toward resolving the Soviet-era conflicts of Nagorno-Karabakh, South
Ossetia, and the Transdniester region.

"I am really convinced that there are many areas where we need to
make a difference, and we need to work a lot harder on them. I think
we must seriously look at all [three] frozen conflicts and my aim as
[chairman]-in-office is to re-energize efforts towards the peace
settlement of these conflicts," Stubb told the OSCE’s Permanent
Council in Vienna on April 10. "I sincerely hope that our efforts
are met with constructive engagement by all the partners."

Addressing that same panel on January 10, Stubb’s predecessor Ilkka
Kanerva had listed conflict resolution among Finland’s top priorities
at the helm of the OSCE.

Yet, three months into Finland’s chairmanship, OSCE efforts to promote
peaceful solutions to the Soviet-era conflicts seem only to be growing
more complicated. Recent developments concerning Karabakh underscore
the difficulties facing Finland.

Azerbaijan has been outspoken in its criticism of the peace process in
recent weeks, and has pressed for changes in the existing Karabakh
negotiating framework. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. Armenia, meanwhile, has threatened to recognize Karabakh’s
independence, if Azerbaijan refuses to participate in peace talks
overseen by the OSCE’s Minsk Group. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

Addressing reporters in Vienna on April 10, Stubb said he fully
supported the Minsk Group’s mediation efforts, adding that he saw
"very little room for maneuver, or change" in the existing negotiation
process.

Among the 39 nations that voted in favor of a UN resolution recognizing
Azerbaijan current borders and calling for the immediate withdrawal of
Armenian forces from occupied Azerbaijani territory were Baku’s fellow
GUAM members — Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. The latter two are
themselves entangled in conflict settlement talks involving the OSCE.

Frustrated by the disproportionate influence that Georgia asserts
Russia enjoys over the existing negotiating framework, Tbilisi recently
came out with a new proposal for peace talks. Dubbed 2+2+2, the new
formula seeks to leave the Russian republic of North Ossetia out of the
peace process, award Georgia’s loyalist Provisional Administration of
South Ossetia a seat at the negotiation table and bring the European
Union in. Georgia has threatened to withdraw from the peace process,
if its proposal is not accepted. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

OSCE Secretary General Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, who met behind
closed doors in Vienna in March with Georgia’s State Minister for
Reintegration Temur Iakobashvili, has not commented on Tbilisi’s
initiative. Stubb in early April made it clear he was not in favor
of modifying the existing negotiation framework.

Stubb also said that, in his view, the internationally-sponsored
negotiation mechanism between Moldova and its Russian-speaking
separatist republic of Transdniester "seems to be working quite
well." Yet, this so-called 5+2 settlement process — which brings
together the OSCE, Russia and Ukraine as mediators, along with the
EU and the United States as observers — has been stalled for the
past two years. Addressing the OSCE’s Permanent Council on March
13, Finnish diplomat Heikki Talvitie clearly indicated he did not
anticipate any breakthrough in the near future.

In the meantime, Russia unilaterally arranged for direct talks between
Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and Transdniestrian leader Igor
Smirnov. The meeting — the first of its kind in seven years — took
place on April 11 in the separatist-controlled city of Bendery. The two
men agreed to work toward reinforcing confidence-building measures,
with the aim of reviving the 5+2 process. Voronin also promised to
lobby Brussels and Washington for the lifting of a travel ban imposed
on Transdniestrian leaders five years ago. In return, Smirnov pledged
to no longer deny Moldovan officials access to Transdniester.

In a statement, the OSCE welcomed the Bendery meeting as "a first step
that can pave the way to resumption of the settlement negotiations
in the 5+2 format."

The "Kommersant" newspaper on March 11 reported that Russia was ready
to help Moldova restore its sovereignty over Transdniester in return
from Chisinau’s assurances that it will not join NATO. That same
Russian daily on April 12 said solving the Transdniester conflict
would also help Russia counter Georgia’s attempts at weakening its
leverage on the South Ossetian peace process.

Editor’s Note: Jean-Christophe Peuch is a Vienna-based freelance
correspondent, who specializes in Caucasus- and Central Asia-related
developments.