POST-BUCHAREST CAUCASUS: ACCUMULATION OF THREATS
by Andrei Areshev

DEFENSE and SECURITY
April 16, 2008 Wednesday
Russia

HIGHLIGHT: LACK OF STABILITY IN THE CAUCASUS MAKES IT A BRIDGEHEAD
OF THREATS AND MENACES; The lack of stability in the Caucasus plays
into the hands of the Alliance.

The NATO summit in Bucharest chose to table the matter of membership
of Georgia and Ukraine in the Alliance. The evaluation of this decision
cannot help being ambivalent.

Some experts believe that time is playing into the hands of Moscow
and the Old European countries that protest the rapid expansion of the
Alliance. The assumption is that the period between now and December
may bring about some changes in Kiev and Tbilisi that will call for
postponement of the matter or its actual removal from the agenda.

Had this development been possible, it would have been ideal for all
involved parties beginning with the peoples of Ukraine and Georgia
subject to total indoctrination these days. They are told again and
again that membership in the Alliance will pave their way to well-being
and prosperity.

It is time to disabuse ourselves of the illusions and admit that
the process of NATO’s eastward expansion has gone so far that the
absorption of Georgia and Ukraine by the Alliance is really a matter of
time. The United States is out to secure the important geopolitical
regions of the post-Soviet zone and first and foremost Ukraine,
Caucasus, and Central Asia.

The Ukraine and Georgia stand on the threshold of the Alliance and
their eventual membership in NATO poses a real threat to Russian
security.

"Russia will definitely take steps to secure its interests on the
state borders," Chief of the General Staff, Yuri Baluyevsky, said.

"There will be military steps, among others." The sooner these steps
are taken the better because words alone have been patently unable
to check NATO’s eastward advance.

Tbilisi may send its regular army to conquer Abkhazia and South
Ossetia and solve the problem posed by the runaway territories. ""We
bought several billion dollars worth of military hardware these last
several years," President Mikhail Saakashvili told servicemen of the
Sachkhere military base on April 8. "Our lives – yours as well as
mine – are dedicated to promoting the unity of the country. We will
know no rest until Georgia is reunited. The struggle for our freedom
is not over yet. Our victories await us."

Observers point out more and more indications of the forthcoming
Georgian aggression. Some Georgian political scientists claim that
"Russia itself has been forcing hostilities in Abkhazia on Georgia."

"Russia may go too far in the matter of recognition of the
self-proclaimed republics," Georgy Khutsishvili of the International
Center for Conflicts and Negotiations said. "It may officially
recognize them or actually annex these territories, sparking Georgia’s
reaction."

Tension over Nagorno-Karabakh is mounting too. OSCE Minsk Group
Chairman Matthew Bryza said in Bucharest that the talks over its
status should end in a mutually acceptable compromise. It was not
the negotiations Bryza was talking about. He spoke of the "status"
of Nagorno-Karabakh and the necessity of its revision, clearly
meaning that Armenia should make new concessions to Azerbaijan. Some
pro-Western "experts" in Armenia referring to the conclusions of the
International Crisis Group are already calling for economic sanctions
against their own country.

Observers believe that designers of "the brave new world" are out to
make solutions to the Abkhazian, South Ossetian, and Karabakh problems
diametrically polar to the Kosovo precedent. The key part in the
process is to be played by NATO. Structures like the Commonwealth or
CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization are helpless to prevent
it from happening. Not even Kazakhstan followed Russia’s example
and lifted economic sanctions off Abkhazia, and this is not even the
most vivid example of discord between members of the Commonwealth and
CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization over latent conflicts in
the Caucasus.

The situation being what it is, unprecedented importance is attached
to Moscow’s determination to prevent more bloodshed.