ALEXANDER ISKANDARJAN: KARABAKH PROBLEM AND CONFLICT SETTLEMENT ARE TWO DIFFERENT PROCESSES
DEFENSE and SECURITY
April 18, 2008 Friday
Russia
CAUCASUS MEDIA INSTITUTE DIRECTOR ALEXANDER ISKANDARJAN ON PROSPECTS
OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH SETTLEMENT; An exclusive interview with Alexander
Iskandarjan, Caucasus Media Institute Director and political scientist.
Question: Will adoption of the UN resolution on Nagorno-Karabakh
suggested by Azerbaijan have any effect on the fact itself of the
talks?
Alexander Iskandarjan: Yes, some effect should be expected indeed but
I do not think that it will be overly radical. The problem of Karabakh
and conflict settlement are two different processes. Sure, they are
meshed to a certain extent but different all the same. They do not have
any direct effect with each other. Karabakh conflict settlement is a
process with its own logic, parameters, and even involved parties –
some of them far from Karabakh itself. It’s an entirely different
process. Existence of the resolution will have some effect of course
but not as a factor facilitating solution to the problem of Karabakh.
Question: Azerbaijan suggests alteration of the form of the OSCE
Minsk Group? Is it expedient?
Alexander Iskandarjan: Both sides in the conflict promote different
interests in connection with the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict. They
even disagree on what should constitute conflict settlement because
Azerbaijan suggests one thing and Armenia another. The conflict
over Karabakh comes down to competition, no wonder Azerbaijan
and Armenia promote absolutely different objectives. I’m not even
talking of the interests of other involved countries and international
organizations. Azerbaijan clearly believes that the OSCE Minsk Group
where all decisions require a consensus answers its interests to a
lesser degree than something else would have done in its place. I
do not want to simplify things, of course, but the impression is
that Azerbaijan is after alteration of the Minsk process and its
structure. Armenia in its turn finds the OSCE Minsk Group quite
convenient to deal with precisely because of its emphasis on consensus.
Question: Is it correct to assume that the mounting tension along
the contact line advances the interests of Armenian and Azerbaijani
elites because it distracts general public in these countries from
domestic problems?
Alexander Iskandarjan: Availability of an enemy nearby is convenient
for mobilization and consolidation of society. Having an enemy nearby
is helpful indeed. This trick is regularly used in politics. On the
other hand, I believe that making an undue emphasis on it will be
wrong. The enemy does exist, you know. No need to invent it. The
enemy does exist in mass consciousness.
Question: Would you say the warring sides are prepared for concessions
at this point?
Alexander Iskandarjan: That Azerbaijan is not ready to offer Armenia
concessions on the scope it expects is clear. And vice versa. The
process of the negotiations between them is 1. a battlefield, and
2. an imitation, something that has little to do with the Karabakh
conflict. As things stand, all external forces involved in the matter
put Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Karabakh under pressure to settle the
legal issue and their in their turn resist the pressure.
Question: Will election of the new president in Armenia introduce
any changes in the matter of Karabakh?
Alexander Iskandarjan: Some infinitesimal changes, probably, but
nothing serious. Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are shaped
by objective factors and not by personalities.