NEXT STEPS TO NORMALIZE TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS
by Hovhannes Nikoghosyan

Diplomatic Traffic
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April 18 2008
DC

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 at the height of the
conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis over Nagorno Karabakh,
a conflict in which Turkey sided with Azerbaijan. At the time of the
closure, the Russian media were speculating that Turkey might invade
Armenia but was warned off by the head of Russia’s General Staff, who
was said to have told Ankara that to do so might start World War III.

In the mid 1990s there were rumors of secret negotiations between
Armenia and Turkey concerning the route of the Baku-Ceyhan oil
pipeline. It was said that Turkey suggested the pipeline run through
Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia instead of Georgia, in exchange for
Armenia withdrawing its forces from Nagorno Karabakh. If such talks
were held, nothing came of them as the pipeline was routed through
Georgia.

The next, and possibly the most positive step in bilateral ties, was
the creation of the Turkish Armenian Reconciliation Commission (TARC)
in 2001 by civil society representatives from Armenia and Turkey. TARC
was originally financed by the US Administration and coordinated by
David Phillips, a senior adviser at the US State Department.

Today we can say that the major step towards real reconciliation made
by TARC was the decision to ask the New York-based International
Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ) to study the applicability
of the 1948 UN Genocide Convention to events of 1915-1923. The ICTJ
published a report in 2003 stating that the Ottoman Empire in its
late years had committed genocide against Armenians. However, TARC
stopped functioning after its fourth meeting in Moscow. No official
outcome of its work was ever published.

If we look at how Armenians and Turks conduct business, one can
hardly describe their behavior as that of enemies. The notion of the
two peoples being enemies today is a stereotype perpetrated by those
powers that benefit from the standoff between the two, especially for
strategic and military reasons. I deeply believe that if we do not
take any steps to improve the ongoing situation in Armenian-Turkish
relations their "geopolitical incompatibility" will become a matter
of fact. For instance, in Armenia both political and public opinion
believes that the Kars-Baku railway project (bypassing Armenia through
Georgia) is a project Ankara is behind to support Baku, and not a
project that will help strengthen regional integration and peace.

The most important reason for improving Turkish-Armenian relations,
however, is the need for both countries to be more stable European
allies, since both nations want to join the European Union.

Besides, keeping the Turkish-Armenian border closed is not the best
way to solve problems in 21st century. There are unresolved disputes
within Europe, but no borders are closed. The best way forward is
a fair dialog. No state can move forward alone without cooperating
with its neighbors.

In 2001 Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian made the following
statement: "The fundamental obstacle for future Armenian-Turkish
relations is our lack of trust in Turkey, as well as the fact that
we are not hopeful that Turkey will become our reliable partner." I
believe, no one could describe the current situation better. And the
same mistrust is no doubt present in Ankara. The fact is that neither
side trusts the other. What can be done to improve the situation?

In 2001 former Turkish foreign minister Ismail Cem suggested the
holding of a Turkish-Azerbaijani-Armenian trilateral conference on
regional security issues. I believe this was a great idea that was
unfortunately never carried out. But the idea is still valid.

I believe it would be useful to call a wider conference for regional
peace and security, focused on confidence-building measures in the
South Caucasus/Caspian region. The following powers could participate:
Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Russia, the United States
and the European Union.

I think this is an issue to be discussed seriously. It is a matter
of fact that all the participants have reservations regarding
rapprochement with at least some of the others, but these should be
discussed as soon as possible. It is important for each country to
articulate for the others what concessions it deems acceptable for
the talks to succeed. Armenia believes in a non-military approach to
solving the thorny regional issues, but it has not received a positive
response so far.

Hovhannes Nikoghosyan is the Managing Editor of "Actual Policy"
e-Journal. ()