LEBANON: CHRISTIAN DIVISIONS COMPLICATE POLITICS
By Mona Alami

IPS, Italy
April 28 2008

BEIRUT, Apr 28 (IPS) – The political crisis gripping Lebanon
has chipped away at what has been viewed by most since the 2005
parliamentary elections as an unlikely alignment of two political
heavyweights.

The recent falling out between Michel Aoun, head of the Christian Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Michel Murr, the Greek Orthodox former
vice-president of parliament, heralds a change that will undoubtedly
affect the 2009 electoral landscape in the Lebanese Christian region
of the Metn in the north.

Inexplicable alliances have long been a tradition of Lebanese politics,
defined by short-sighted tactical partnerships rooted in the intense
rivalry of opposing parties, communities and political families. Such
alliances have played a key role in the struggle for power among the
various Christian factions.

To strengthen their positions, the Christian Kataeb party (Phalangists)
and the Lebanese Forces — led by Amin Gemayel and Samir Geagea
respectively — joined forces in the 2005 elections with the largely
Sunni Future Movement (headed by Saad Hariri, son of slain former
prime minister Rafik Hariri) and the Progressive Socialist Party
(PSP) headed by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Comprising the March
14 Movement and holding a total of 67 seats out 128 in parliament,
the alliance is considered the majority.

At the other end of the spectrum is the opposition, consisting of the
surprising ‘memorandum of understanding’ between the FPM and Hezbollah,
the Shia ‘Party of God’, which is led by Hassan Nasrallah. Also part of
the alliance is the Shia Amal party, headed by current House speaker
Nabih Berri.

Since the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005, the two sides have
failed to reach a compromise on the balance of power in government,
which has resulted in an ongoing sit-in protest by the opposition in
Beirut since December 2006 and an empty presidential seat since the
position was vacated by former president Emile Lahoud in November 2007.

It is, in fact, the postponement of presidential elections 19 times
thus far that has incited Murr to warn Christian MPs who abstained
from voting that they might not be re-elected. "Christians should
not be lied to; under the false pretence of defending the rights of
their community, presidential elections are being blocked," he said.

"Murr believes presidential elections should take place as soon as
possible, while the FPM links elections to a basket of measures, such
as agreement on the future cabinet composition and the replacement
of the inequitable 2001 parliamentary law," says Armenian MP Hagop
Pakradounian.

So, what does the growing rift between Murr and Aoun over the
appointment of a president mean for the 2009 elections?

The battle for power in the Metn pits the Kataeb party and LF against
the FPM, which is joined by a few independents, including Murr. The
impact of Murr’s defection from the opposition can be measured by
his political weight in the area, which affects the outcome of eight
parliamentary seats: four Maronite positions, two Greek Orthodox,
one Catholic and one Armenian.

Research shows that participation of voters has been customarily low
in the area, as is the case with the rest of the country. According
to statistician Kamal Feghali, 51.2 percent of registered voters
participated in the 2005 elections, in which Murr represented 20,000
votes. In the 2007 partial elections (prompted by the assassination
of Kataeb MP Pierre Gemayel), 47.2 percent of voters participated,
with 15,600 votes influenced by Murr. During both elections, total
votes amounted to about 80,000.

"There are currently four independent members of parliament, of which
three are allied with the FPM — Hagop Pakradounion, Selim Salhab
and Ghassan Moukheiber — while the fourth is Michel Murr. Four other
seats are occupied by FPM deputies," explains Alain Aoun from the FPM.

According to Alain Aoun, Murr’s new position will be restricted
to the Metn and will not affect national elections. "It is too
early to measure the exact repercussions of this new realignment
on the political landscape. The disagreement between Mr. Murr and
the FPM might dissipate before the 2009 elections, as long as the
political discourse remains toned down," he points out, adding that
the political context in 2009 will ultimately define the outcome of
the next parliamentary elections.

Another factor that could disrupt the balance of power in the Metn is
the Armenian sway. "Armenian voters represent some 12,000 votes in the
Metn, of which our party, Tachnag, traditionally garners 80 percent,"
explains Pakradounian. Some 10,000 people voted for the Tachnag party
in the 2005 elections, while this figure came down in 2005 by 1,150
votes, according to statistics provided by Feghali.

"Murr’s recent change of heart does guarantee his realignment with the
majority," says Pakradounian. "I think his main objective is to exert
enough pressure to resolve the deadlock and accelerate presidential
elections. My belief is that he is still trying to find a common
denominator between the opposition and majority.

"We maintain excellent relations with both Gen. Aoun and President
Murr, who are our allies, and their disagreement may be short-lived,"
continues Pakradounian. While Tachnag’s alliance with Michel Murr
is more than 44 years old, Pakradounian states that General Aoun has
also frequently proven his loyalty to the Armenian party by refusing
to participate in the cabinet in the absence of the Tachnag.

With the power to sway votes in one direction or the other, the Tachnag
is certainly proving a force to be reckoned with. Their influence
could even reach the elections of the eastern Bekaa city of Zahle,
where the party holds one of seven seats. (END/2008)

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress