Sada Al-Watan (Arab-American News), Michigan
May 5 2008

Christian divisions complicate politics

By Mona Alami
Saturday, 05.03.2008, 09:39am

BEIRUT (IPS) ‘ The political crisis gripping Lebanon has chipped away
at what has been viewed by most since the 2005 parliamentary elections
as an unlikely alignment of two political heavyweights.

The recent falling out between Michel Aoun, head of the Christian Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Michel Murr, the Greek Orthodox former
vice-president of parliament, heralds a change that will undoubtedly
affect the 2009 electoral landscape in the Lebanese Christian region
of the Metn in the north.

Inexplicable alliances have long been a tradition of Lebanese
politics, defined by short-sighted tactical partnerships rooted in the
intense rivalry of opposing parties, communities and political
families. Such alliances have played a key role in the struggle for
power among the various Christian factions.

To strengthen their positions, the Christian Kataeb party
(Phalangists) and the Lebanese Forces ‘ led by Amin Gemayel and Samir
Geagea respectively ‘ joined forces in the 2005 elections with the
largely Sunni Future Movement (headed by Saad Hariri, son of slain
former prime minister Rafik Hariri) and the Progressive Socialist
Party (PSP) headed by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Comprising the
March 14 Movement and holding a total of 67 seats out 128 in
parliament, the alliance is considered the majority.

At the other end of the spectrum is the opposition, consisting of the
surprising "memorandum of understanding" between the FPM and
Hizbullah, the Shia "Party of God," which is led by Hassan
Nasrallah. Also part of the alliance is the Shi’a Amal party, headed
by current speaker of the parliament, Nabih Berri.

Since the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005, the two sides have
failed to reach a compromise on the balance of power in government,
which has resulted in an ongoing sit-in protest by the opposition in
Beirut since December 2006 and an empty presidential seat since the
position was vacated by former president Emile Lahoud in November
2007.

It is, in fact, the postponement of presidential elections 19 times
thus far that has incited Murr to warn Christian MPs who abstained
from voting that they might not be re-elected. "Christians should not
be lied to; under the false pretense of defending the rights of their
community, presidential elections are being blocked," he said.

"Murr believes presidential elections should take place as soon as
possible, while the FPM links elections to a basket of measures, such
as agreement on the future cabinet composition and the replacement of
the inequitable 2001 parliamentary law," says Armenian MP Hagop
Pakradounian.

So, what does the growing rift between Murr and Aoun over the
appointment of a president mean for the 2009 elections?

The battle for power in the Metn pits the Kataeb party and LF against
the FPM, which is joined by a few independents, including Murr. The
impact of Murr’s defection from the opposition can be measured by his
political weight in the area, which affects the outcome of eight
parliamentary seats: four Maronite positions, two Greek Orthodox, one
Catholic and one Armenian.

Research shows that participation of voters has been customarily low
in the area, as is the case with the rest of the country. According to
statistician Kamal Feghali, 51.2 percent of registered voters
participated in the 2005 elections, in which Murr represented 20,000
votes. In the 2007 partial elections (prompted by the assassination of
Kataeb MP Pierre Gemayel), 47.2 percent of voters participated, with
15,600 votes influenced by Murr. During both elections, total votes
amounted to about 80,000.

"There are currently four independent members of parliament, of which
three are allied with the FPM ‘ Hagop Pakradounion, Selim Salhab and
Ghassan Moukheiber ‘ while the fourth is Michel Murr. Four other seats
are occupied by FPM deputies," explains Alain Aoun from the FPM.

According to Aoun, Murr’s new position will be restricted to the Metn
and will not affect national elections. "It is too early to measure
the exact repercussions of this new realignment on the political
landscape. The disagreement between Mr. Murr and the FPM might
dissipate before the 2009 elections, as long as the political
discourse remains toned down," he points out, adding that the
political context in 2009 will ultimately define the outcome of the
next parliamentary elections.

Another factor that could disrupt the balance of power in the Metn is
the Armenian sway. "Armenian voters represent some 12,000 votes in the
Metn, of which our party, Tachnag, traditionally garners 80 percent,"
explains Pakradounian. Some 10,000 people voted for the Tachnag party
in the 2005 elections, while this figure came down in 2005 by 1,150
votes, according to statistics provided by Feghali.

"Murr’s recent change of heart does guarantee his realignment with the
majority," says Pakradounian. "I think his main objective is to exert
enough pressure to resolve the deadlock and accelerate presidential
elections. My belief is that he is still trying to find a common
denominator between the opposition and majority.

"We maintain excellent relations with both Gen. Aoun and President
Murr, who are our allies, and their disagreement may be short-lived,"
continues Pakradounian. While Tachnag’s alliance with Michel Murr is
more than 44 years old, Pakradounian states that General Aoun has also
frequently proven his loyalty to the Armenian party by refusing to
participate in the cabinet in the absence of the Tachnag.

With the power to sway votes in one direction or the other, the
Tachnag is certainly proving a force to be reckoned with. Their
influence could even reach the elections of the eastern Bekaa city of
Zahle, where the party holds one of seven seats.

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