ABKHAZIAN KNOT: THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT PLACES ITS NEIGHBORS IN FRONT OF A CHOICE
by Victor Yadukha

DEFENSE and SECURITY
May 12, 2008 Monday
Russia

AS A RESULT OF A RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT MOSCOW MAY FULLY LOSE
POSITIONS IN TRANSCAUCASIA; Yesterday, Georgian State Minister for
Reintegration, Temur Yakobashvili, announced in Brussels that Georgia
was close to a war. On the same day, Yerevan-based agency PanArmenian
reported with reference to Real Azerbaijan that Baku was going to
provide military assistance to Georgia sending Afghan mojaheds and
its own militants from among the amnestied criminals and Azerbaijanis
living in the CIS. Baku called this report a canard. In any case,
the policy of Azerbaijan may change after the entrance of Georgia
into NATO.

Yesterday, Georgian State Minister for Reintegration, Temur
Yakobashvili, announced in Brussels that Georgia was close to a
war. On the same day, Yerevan-based agency PanArmenian reported with
reference to Real Azerbaijan that Baku was going to provide military
assistance to Georgia sending Afghan mojaheds and its own militants
from among the amnestied criminals and Azerbaijanis living in the
CIS. Baku called this report a canard. In any case, the policy of
Azerbaijan may change after the entrance of Georgia into NATO.

PanArmenian states that it is planned to restart air flights from Baku
to Kabul. The agency explains, "The transportation of big cargoes of
weapons and groups of Afghan mojaheds trained by British instructors
via Azerbaijan to Georgia is expected." According to PanArmenian,
"active recruitment" in Azerbaijani diasporas in Russia and CIS
continued for a month already

Khazar Ibragim, director of the press service of the Foreign Ministry
of Azerbaijan, said, "This is gibberish on which it is impossible
to comment."

Nonetheless, public discussion dedicated to this topic has been going
on in Azerbaijan for a long time. According to political scientist and
diplomat Fikret Sadykhov, despite the good neighborly relations with
Russia, in this conflict Azerbaijan "should take the side of Georgia"
because Azerbaijani hydrocarbons go to the European market through
it and Tbilisi "has always manifested understanding" to the stance
of Azerbaijan regarding Nagorno-Karabakh.

This topic is closely connected with the topic of entrance of the
country into NATO. Recently, President Ilkham Aliev announced that
"proceeding from the current situation, membership of Azerbaijan
in NATO is not discussed." Connection to the present moment is not
incidental. According to military expert Uzeir Dzhafarov, Azerbaijan
will definitely join NATO but only after Georgia. Alexander Skakov
agrees, "So far, Azerbaijan has managed to maneuver but if Georgia
enters into NATO Baku will hardly be able to continue the independent
game." Moreover, according to Skakov, in this case Armenia will be
in NATO too (its devotion to Russia should not be overestimated)
and Western peacekeepers will be inserted into Nagorno-Karabakh. In
this situation Russia can remain in Transcaucasia only by one way,
namely by blocking the entrance of Georgia into NATO.