AIRPLANES ARE THE PRIORITY OR FOR WHOM IS "UNFREEZING" OF THE CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS BENEFICIAL?
by Alla Prisyazhnyuk

DEFENSE and SECURITY
May 12, 2008 Monday
Russia

The independence of Abkhazia may lead to problems with revision of
borders between the former subjects of the Soviet Union

ARE HOSTILITIES POSSIBLE ON THE TERRITORY OF ABKHAZIA?; From the
strategic standpoint neither Georgia, nor Russia nor the West are
interested in a local war in the North Caucasus. Any shot in the region
that is waiting for big money may be fatal. Russia is preparing for
the Winter Olympics of 2014 in Sochi. Americans are protecting the
strategically important oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and are
cherishing plans to build the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. However,
opinions of the parties about the ways to solve the Abkhaz problem
differed. The question who pulls the strings of the Georgian-Abkhaz
conflict – Tbilisi, Moscow or Washington – remains unanswered.

>From the strategic standpoint neither Georgia, nor Russia nor the West
are interested in a local war in the North Caucasus. Any shot in the
region that is waiting for big money may be fatal. Russia is preparing
for the Winter Olympics of 2014 in Sochi. Americans are protecting
the strategically important oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and are
cherishing plans to build the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline.

However, opinions of the parties about the ways to solve the
Abkhaz problem differed. The question who pulls the strings of the
Georgian-Abkhaz conflict – Tbilisi, Moscow or Washington – remains
unanswered.

Russia goes too far

The "thaw" of the Georgian conflict, started four years ago, is in
full swing. In 2008, it is going on with the active participation of
Russia. At first, the Russian Defense Minister announced an increase of
the quantity of CIS peacekeepers in Abkhazia from 2,000 to 3,000 and an
arrangement of 15 additional checkpoints. Six weeks ago, Vladimir Putin
issued decrees on the development of relations with these regions.

It is also understandable why it is Abkhazia and not South Ossetia
that is in the focus of Russian-Georgian conflict. First, there is a
deposit of gravel in Abkhazia which is the closest to Sochi and gravel
is used as construction material for Olympic objects. Georgia refers to
environmental problems and protests against gravel extraction. Second,
the Abkhaz labor force is cheaper. Third, Russian passports have been
handed out actively in Abkhazia, which should substantiate actions
of Russia aimed at defending the rights of its citizens.

Pretended war

Experts offer two main versions for escalation of the conflict in the
North Caucasus. The first and the most popular version is that Mikhail
Saakashvili has dared to undertake a risky independent game hoping
to win parliamentary elections on the wave of Georgian patriotism,
to purge the sponsors of the opposition and to increase his rating.

The second version is based on the "American trace." An American
show is being played in the North Caucasus in which the conflicts
in Abkhazia and South Ossetia serve as a disguise for preparation of
the operation in Iran. Sergei Tolstov, director of the institute of
political analysis and international studies, says that "Everything
depends on whether the decision on an attack on Iran is made. If the
decision is positive, according to one of the versions, Saakashvili
simply creates a distractive maneuver."

Future of the Russian-Georgian conflict

Are hostilities possible on the territory of Abkhazia? One way or
the other, everything shows that the parties will not risk starting
a military operation. This war is not beneficial for anyone. Victor
Konstantinov, researcher of the institute for study of Russia, remarks,
"Russia raises the stakes in this game moving combat-ready troops to
Abkhazia to deprive Georgians of the temptation to get involved into
this war." According to Tolstov, the downed airplane actually became
a demonstration of military power of Abkhazia capable of preventing
flights of reconnaissance airplanes above its territory.

At any rate, it is obvious that in case of a war in Abkhazia, Tbilisi
will not be able to resist Russia without American support. For the
US the Georgian problem is far from being its first priority. In
turn, Russia is afraid that in case of at least one shot near Sochi,
the license for conduction of the Olympics may be, if not taken away,
then sanctions will be imposed for sure. Besides, in case of an armed
conflict, Moscow will face harsh pressure on the part of the US and
European Union. If the Abkhaz conflict is viewed as an attempt to
postpone joining Georgia to the NATO Membership Action Plan, it is
bound to fail.

Finally, if the matter comes to this, Russia will have to fight in
Abkhazia all alone, says Sergei Markedonov, director of the section
of problems of inter-ethnic relations of the institute of political
and military analysis. Neither Ukraine, nor Azerbaijan will support
it. Armenia having only two outlets to the outer world via Iran and
Georgia is excluded too. Kazakhstan has problems of its own.

This is just another way that the Russian party tries to present
the Abkhaz situation as a negative consequence of Kosovo’s
self-determination. The Russian expert draws a grim picture: "The
independence of Abkhazia will lead to many other problems: a revision
of post-Soviet borders between the former subjects of the Soviet
Union. This is a precedent worse than Kosovo because in relations with
the Ukraine, there are skeletons in the closet (Crimea, Donbass). There
are questions in the relations with Kazakhstan too. Besides, there
are problems in Ukrainian-Belarusian relations like Polesye, although
they are not so obvious. There are also border disputes with Estonia."