RUSSIAN-AZERBAIJANI RELATIONS: NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT
Alexey Malashenko

Eurasian Home Analytical Resource
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May 19 2008
Russia

The year of 2008 is very important for Azerbaijan, since the
presidential election is to take place in the country this
year. Besides, the year of 2008 is important for the entire South
Caucasus. The Russian-Caucasian relations may break new horizons,
and this can concern Georgia, Azerbaijan and even Armenia. I believe
that Russia and the Caucasian states will understand each other better
in spite of the current strained relations between Moscow and Tbilisi.

As for the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, I think that they will
develop within the framework of the diversification of Azerbaijan’s
foreign policy and economic relations. In Russia this new trend is
being adapted to, it is understood that the new independent states
are guided by the national interests rather than by nostalgic feelings.

Moscow and Baku will continue getting used to each other. Something
will be taken painfully. For example, new oil and gas routes through
Azerbaijan will meet with Russia’s rejection.

The parties will pin their great hopes on new Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev. Anyway, he does not make strongly-worded statements that
we used to hear. Of course, this is good.

The important question is how the territorial conflicts will be
settled. This year drastic decisions will not be taken. I do not know
when they will be taken. But I feel that pragmatism tells.

One can say that formerly Russia could use the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict to influence the participants of the conflict – Armenia and
Azerbaijan. But I believe that now these countries are likely to use
the conflict to influence Russia. For example, when it is said that
if Russia does not change its position on the conflict, Azerbaijan
will bring about a rapprochement with the West.

Alexey VLASOV, general director of the Information and Analytical
Center for Study of the Social and Political Processes in the
post-Soviet space, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow The
hopes or apprehensions of the experts who believe that after the
change of power in Russia the Kremlin’s foreign policy will be changed
drastically are unlikely to be realized. In the short term the policy,
which Vladimir Putin conducted during his second presidential term,
will be followed.

How is that connected with the South Caucasus? I think that neither
Russia nor the Western states have produced the new rules of the game
that should be clearly formulated due to the dynamic development of
the situation in the South Caucasus as well as in Central Asia.

The chaotic processes, which will be still more intense after the
Kosovo precedent, result from the unbalanced strategy of the Russian
Federation. It is not clear if we should proceed from the "closed
concepts", namely the South Caucasian problems should be resolved
within the region with Russia acting as a moderator, or we should go
over to "open strategies" and say that the EU and NATO have certain
interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. If that is so,
we must sit down at the negotiating table together with the Western
politicians and draw up the rules of the game.

For today Russia’s foreign policy, there are no synchronous actions
in different areas. That’s why the policy pursued towards Abkhazia
and South Ossetia differs from the policy pursued towards the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Rasim MUSABEKOV, political scientist, Baku If the Caucasian conflicts
are not settled, the relations between the regions’ states and with
Russia are unlikely to become stable. Azerbaijan’s foreign policy must
focus on elimination of consequences of Armenia’s aggression against
Azerbaijan that led to the occupation of not only Nagorno-Karabakh
but also the territory where there were six times as many people as
there were the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.

I believe that this is the major impediment to the development
of the Azerbaijani-Russian relations. When Vladimir Putin was
the Russian President, those relations became much better and
much more pragmatic. The economic relations’ potential is not
exhausted. Azerbaijan is the largest market in the Caucasus. Many
Azerbaijanis speak Russian.

As regards the security issues, Azerbaijan does not try to reduce the
problems to the mass media squabbles. I believe that if Azerbaijan
does not see the change of Moscow’s attitude in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict settlement, it will be extremely difficult to stop
Azerbaijan’s drift in the Western and NATO direction.

The stage when Russia tried to prevent Azerbaijan from developing
the Caspian Sea energy resources became a thing of the past. This
country implemented the large-scale projects concerning the oil
and gas exploitation and supplies to the world markets sidestepping
Russia. Today Azerbaijan is getting Russia’s competitor as oil and
gas exporter, though not very serious, in the international markets.

There is a different kind of interest in building the relations
with Azerbaijan. Gazprom displays an interest in the purchases
of the Azerbaijani gas. This is reasonable and can be negotiated
pragmatically.

At present there is a clash of positions on the Transcaspian projects
of the energy supplies. If Azerbaijan reaches the agreement with
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, this will be difficult to stave off. If
there are consumers and suppliers of those energy resources, it will
be almost impossible to prevent those projects from being implemented.

Rashad RZAQULIYEV, head of the Foundation of Social Developments,
Baku We should view the Russian-Azerbaijani relations in the context
of shaping the Eurasian policy. It is Russia that plays a certain
role in the formation of a new fair order in Eurasia. In this respect
Russia’s position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement will
be an important and serious part of the big geopolitical game.

If Russia fails to stop a split of the Eurasian space by the foreign
forces, then at least the Nagorno-Karabakh issue can change the
geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.

The past experience does not allow us to hope that Russia will
change its position on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. In my opinion,
Azerbaijan itself should be concerned about its territorial integrity
and sovereignty. I’m sure that Azerbaijan is able to resolve those
problems or will be able to do that in the near future.

The problem is different. The global political situation is formed
by a small group of the states. The Russian political elite must
continue to be conscious of their responsibility for their country
as well as for the large area that is historically and culturally
connected with Russia. The maintenance of order in the South Caucasus
should proceed from Russia’s national interests.

The material is based on the experts’ addresses during the video
conference Moscow-Baku "Russian-Azerbaijani relations: New Stage of
Development". The video conference was organized by the Russian News
and Information Agency RIA Novosti on May 13, 2008.