AIR DEFENSE… FOR RUNAWAY TERRITORIES DENIED INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION
by Madina Shavlokhova

DEFENSE and SECURITY
May 19, 2008 Monday
Russia

THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IS PREPARED TO ESTABLISH A BASE IN ABKHAZIA;
Will Moscow really order establishment of a military base on the
territory of Abkhazia?

Official web site of the Russian Defense Ministry posted a
document Georgian military capacities (shape of the Armed Forces,
military potential, weapons and military hardware, and so on), this
Thursday. Russian AF Commander Colonel General Alexander Zelin became
the first Russian military to admit readiness to take Abkhazian leader
Sergei Bagapsh’s offer to establish a Russian military base on the
territory of the self-proclaimed sovereign republic. Making this offer
on May 14, the Abkhazian authorities ascribed it to the necessity of
"guarantees for a small democratic state."

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Georgia has been receiving
gratis military hardware from the United States, Czech Republic,
Turkey, Bulgaria, and Israel. Its mounting military potential is
believed to be having "a thoroughly negative effect on development
of the military-political situation in the Caucasus." According to
the document on the Defense Ministry web site, Georgia already laid
its hands on 175 tanks, 126 armored vehicles, 12 helicopters, 8 ships
and boats, and other articles. Tbilisi expects 100 armored vehicles,
14 aircraft including four Mirage-2000s, 15 Black Hawk helicopters,
and 10 ships yet.

What effect will all this merchandise have on the regional
stability? Vitaly Shlykov of the Foreign and Defense Policy Council
does not expect the weapons to be put to use. "Georgia will keep
accumulating it all to keep Abkhazia under strain and pressure,"
Shlykov said.

Neither is The Russian military in the meantime above keeping Georgia
under strain and pressure. Zelin of the Russian AF said this Thursday
that the military only needed the political decision and the base
in Abkhazia would be established. "It will facilitate security of
the state borders," AF commander-in-chief said. Zelin even recalled
Russian-Armenian interaction within the framework of the CIS United
Air Defense System. "I wish we had relations of similar nature with
Georgia but…" Zelin added.

Zelin’s words might be a response to the recent withdrawal of Georgia
from the CIS United Air Defense System treaty. The official note
to this effect was delivered on May 15, ten days after Georgia’s
unilateral withdrawal from the bilateral agreement with Russia on air
defense cooperation. There are no legal obstacles anymore preventing
installation of the third position area of the US national missile
defense in Europe. When Vladimir Putin offered the Gabala radar for
incorporation into the missile defense framework, US army experts
examined the installation and pronounced construction of a new radar
on the territory of Adjaria in Georgia a better option.