NEW GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE CAUCASUS: TOWARDS WHERE? – ANALYSIS
Azeri Press Agency
May 20 2008
Azerbaijan
2008 began very actively in view of Armenia-Azerbaijan
conflict. Despite that the activeness appears as natural on the back
of presidential elections in both countries the developments are at
odds with the scenario.
In fact the elections shouldn’t be viewed as a reason of the
developments because it is only the part of world and regional
processes. Today, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and situation in
whole South Caucasus should be evaluated as an impact of new system
of international relations, created after Kosovo’s declaration of
independence in February, on the region. In other words, new view
of super powers and organizations on the traditional confrontation
between the principles of territorial integrity of the countries
and self-determination right of peoples should be considered as an
accelerator of the processes. Undoubtedly local conditions, which
played decisive role in the existing situation and domestic terms,
shouldn’t be out of attention:
– Armenian self-isolation policy for defending of status-quo; – Effect
of Azerbaijan’s huge oil incomes; – Intensified dissatisfaction of
public community in Armenia against the Nagorno Karabakh clan; –
Azerbaijan’s concern over Kosovo experience to be as a precedent;
Russia is not reconciled with the Kosovo’s independence and threatens
to repeat the same scenario in the Caucasus. Last developments,
related to Russian citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, are the
part of this plan. Concerning over this, the West states that Kosovo
is not precedent and tries to strengthen its position in the region
considering such strategic features of the region as a transit
and energy security. Other conditioned aspect it the threatening
of territorial integrity of ally Georgia, the scene of "rose
revolution". The West gave written promises to Georgia in Bucharest
summit to welcome it in NATO and the country is out of the orbit of
Russian influence, which changes the balance of forces in the Caucasus.
Azerbaijan’s recent tactics "the best defense is an attack" also means
the using of new situation in its favor. A weak domestic stability in
Armenia is also in favor of our country. It will be credulity to think
that adoption of UN resolution on situation in the occupied lands of
Azerbaijan and post-election unrests in Armenia coincided only. Baku
tries to create legal basis for a new situation not to threaten its
vital interests. The UN resolution and 43rd article of NATO Bucharest
declaration have been adopted with this goal. In the first case
Azerbaijan won the UN support and in the second case it achieved to
neutralize two of the three superpowers, which voted against the UN
resolution and to reach NATO guarantee for its territorial integrity.
Certainly, there is no need to exaggerate an importance of resolution
of UN General Assembly or resolution of NATO. Adoption of such
decisions and documents is positive. The new power is a continuation
of previous one and therefore Armenia will not change its policy on
Nagorno Karabakh. Domestic tensity, separation of church, Diaspora
and society give broad political chance for Azerbaijan. Such situation
occurred during terrorist act in Armenian parliament in 1999. Matthew
Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian
Affairs noted in Helsinki Commission that Armenia could be deprived
from Millennium Challenge Cooperation. There is not an analogue of
this situation in Armenia-US relations.
Baku has left Armenia behind within the framework of Prague
process. Using adopted documents, Azerbaijan can influence on
the negotiation process. Here includes the joint usage of Lachin
corridor and fate of Kalbajar, as well as status of Nagorno Karabakh
Autonomous Province. Azerbaijan will use negotiations on UN level
and inactivity of OSCE MG as a way of pressure. Realization of
Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway will be last element of Armenian
blockade and Yerevan bewares of increase of Azerbaijani military
budget and war mood. After Kosovo experiment, unilateral recognition of
Nagorno Karabakh will weaken the position of Yerevan. Former Spokesman
for Armenian foreign ministry Vladimir Karapetian noted that Azerbaijan
could use natural gas as a trump card in Russia-Azerbaijan relations,
as well as Iran issue in US-Azerbaijan relations and exaggerate its
role in European energy security.
"We face common useless condition linking with our weakness,
new regional status of Azerbaijan. Today’s Azerbaijan differs from
Azerbaijan participated in negotiations process late in last century",
he said.