Today.Az, Azerbaijan
May 27 2008

Russian expert: "By stressing its isolation, "Nagorno Karabakh
Republic" became trapped by the same processes that occur around other
unrecognized countries"

27 May 2008 [10:16] – Today.Az

"Today Nagorno Karabakh occupies special place among the unrecognized
countries", said Alexander Skakov, chief of department for problems
of near abroad of the Russian Strategic Researches Institute, taking
part in the international conference in the Nagorno Karabakh center.

"On the one hand, Nagorno Karabakh proved its political and economic
independence and flexibility. On the other hand, "Nagorno Karabakh
Republic" distances itself from other unrecognized countries and in
the result from Russia as well. Russia also does not strive for
involving Nagorno Karabakh into its orbit and does not intend to spoil
its positive relations with Azerbaijan.

Paradoxical situation emerged in the result-by stressing its
isolation, "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" became trapped by the processes
and pressure of the other unrecognized countries", said Skakov.

According to him, "the intention of Brussels and Washington to break
the status-quo, unfreeze the existent conflict, transform the system
of international relations, established in the South Caucasus, did not
bypass Nagorno Karabakh".

"Since the Moscow meeting of the OSCE Minsk Group in 1993, Nagorno
Karabakh had been a conflict party, a participant of the negotiation
process and remained that until autumn of 1997, despite the sharp
resistance of Baku. Nevertheless, a number of factors, including the
emerging internal crisis in Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan’s growing
prestige resulted in Minsk group’s refusal to hold talks with
participation of Khankendi under pretense of the urgent presidential
elections in "Nagorno Karabakh Republic".

"Nagorno Karabakh Republic" is right to insist on its full
participation as a conflict side in the negotiation process under the
auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group. Baku is against it", said the
Russian expert.

At the same time he noted that the said situation is unambiguous. "On
the one hand, the status of Nagorno Karabakh, as a conflict side, has
lowered, as the talks are held without its participation. On the other
hand, "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" gets an opportunity to block the
implementation of any peaceful plan without participation in the talks
and Armenia is free in its actions.

Anyway, the non-participation of "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" in the
negotiation process can not be considered logical, as the interests of
Yerevan and Khankendi are not the same, though close to each others",
said Alexander Skakov.

He said Russia distances itself from the search of ways of the
conflict resolution, shifting the responsibility to the conflicting
sides and other mediators. This reduces Russia’s influence in the
region, he thinks.

Speaking about possible renewal of hostilities in the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict, he noted: "Most officials in Azerbaijan do not rule out
forced way of resolution in case there will not be any other peaceful
solutions. Nevertheless, the variant of Azerbaijan’s strengthening its
position in the international arena and isolation of Armenia and
Nagorno Karabakh is the most important for Baku".

He noted that militaristic spirits are stronger among the military
leadership of Azerbaijan than among the political one. "Generals
develop plans of military revenge and start to believe in their
possibility. The most surprising is that in line with some sources,
the Azerbaijani military authorities also admit the variant of front
attack to the "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" for outlet to the Karabakh
defense, which seems quite unreal.

Anyway, the confidence about the possible revenge creates conditions
for initiation of large scale military actions in case of any
provocation. I admit that such militaristic spirits may also exist
among the Armenian servicemen. In particular, Armenian mass medias
admit that in case Yerevan and Khankendi are confident about
Azerbaijan’s readiness to war, they may undertake a warning attack. It
seems to me that both scripts are possible only in the result of a
large scale crisis in the whole region", said the Russian expert.

The current plans of the peaceful resolution of Nagorno Karabakh
conflict should be considered in the sense of their preparedness, he
considers. Yet, he says that all of them are unreal and face
insuperable obstacles in the current conditions.

"To overcome them requires either good will or peace-loving, which
both sides do not have, or unilateral steps from one of the parties,
demonstrating its good will, which is unreal so far. Today the only
chance for the peaceful resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict on the
long-term basis is a course for reconciliation of the peoples and
rejection of the forced resolution of the problem", said Skakov.

/Regnum/

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