YaLibnan, Lebanon
May 31 2008

Lebanon cabinet : Too many wish lists

Published: Saturday, 31 May, 2008 @ 7:25 AM in Beirut (GMT+2) By: Ali
Hussein

Beirut- Lebanon’s Prime Minister designate Fouad Siniora will be
facing many challenges in forming the new cabinet as the first day of
consultations has revealed.

Siniora ( pictured ) started Friday at 1:30 pm the consultations with
the Parliamentary bloc leaders to form a cabinet of national unity but
he soon found out that the demands by the opposition are politically
motivated and far from being unity oriented

Hezbollah parliamentary bloc leader Mohammed Raad demanded 1 Sunni and
1 Druze seat for his marginal Sunni and Druze allies . According to
political observers Hezbollah’s demand is politically motivated and
appears to be aimed at penetrating majority ranks.

According to observers the distribution of Shiite seats are most
likely as follows: Ali Hasan Khalil, Mohammed Jawad Khalifeh and Jihad
Murtada representing the Amal Movement headed by Speaker Berri

Mohammed Fneish and Hussein Hajj Hassan representing Hezbollah. The
third is yet to be decided , perhaps it may be for a Druze or Sunni

It is not clear whom Amal will be willing to give up for a Druze or
Sunni

Hezbollah’s ally Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun, who
also heads the Change and Reform Bloc asked Siniora to be represented
in the cabinet by five Christian ministers. According to observers the
distribution is most likely as follows:

2 Maronite ministers: Gibran Bassil and Nabil Nicola 1 Orthodox
minister: General Issam Abu Jamra 1 Catholic minister: Elias Skaff 1
Armenian minister: Hagop Pakradounian

According to As Safir and based on March 14 sources, the distribution
of the majority cabinet seats are most likely as follows:

6 Sunni ministers: Fouad Saniora, Mohammed Safadi, Mohammed Qabbani
and Samir al-Jisr in addition to two of these three names — Jamal
al-Jarrah, Hassan al-Sabaa or Ahmed Fatfat. 3 Maronite ministers:
Jihad Azour, Butros Harb and Joe Sarkis. 3 Druze ministers: Ghazi
Aridi, Akram Shehayyeb and Wael Abu Faour. 2 Greek Orthodox
ministers: Farid Makari and Atef Majdalani or Tareq Mitri. 1 Catholic
minister: Michel Mkattaf. 1 Armenian minister: Jean Oghassabian. It
is not clear which Sunni and Druze seats the majority will be willing
to give up if Hezbollah insists on one Druze and 1 Sunni

The grand total of above is 30 seats which is the size of the
projected unity government

MP Michel Murr, who represents a bloc representing the Metn
constituency, told Siniora that he wants his son, Elias Murr to be the
bloc’s representative for a cabinet seat and asked for either the
ministry of defense or the foreign affairs as suitable seats. Murr is
currently in the care taking government as a defense minister,
representing former president Emile Lahoud . It is not clear yet if
Murr will be allocated one of president Suleiman’s seats , since
Michel Murr has quit Aoun’s Change and Reform Bloc and declared
himself independent .

MP Mohammed Safadi, representing the Tripoli Gathering, asked for the
same ministry he is currently occupying in the temporary government :
Public works

The biggest problem facing Siniora is the distribution of the so
called sovereign ministries . These are the Defense, Finance, Foreign
affairs, Interior and Justice. According to political observers, most
probably the Interior will go to the president since he is considered
the neutral party and all eyes are on the 2009 elections , which will
be supervised by this ministry. The other 4 may be evenly split by the
majority and opposition .

The other problems facing Siniora is the distribution of the
ministries of Labor, telecommunications, public works , education and
social affairs. The majority according to analysts is unwilling to
give up the ministries of education, labor and telecommunications
ministries, while the opposition is insisting on the ministry of labor
and public works. These 2 ministries are labor ( employment) oriented
and could help influence the 2009 election results

A lot of horse trading is awaiting Siniora today and possibly the
coming days and weeks.

The majority wants Michel Suleiman’s presidential oath to be the basis
for the forthcoming cabinet’s policy statement

The wish lists are so entangled that many think Siniora will not be
able to form a cabinet