WAR OR ELECTIONS?
VARDAN GRIGORYAN

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
Published on May 29, 2008
Armenia

Mr. Aliev is still busy solving the second problem

Prior to the meeting between the Armenian and Azeri presidents, the
official Baku has launched an unprecedented campaign on the
international arena and inside its own country, with the aim of
creating an impression that it is seriously preparing for new a war
against Karabakh.

This month’s `digests’ from the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact-line
published by the Azerbaijani information agencies are enough for
creating the impression that battles are going on there day and night,
people are dying and weapon emplacements are being silenced; that’s to
say, the parties have actually found themselves in a military
confrontation.

However, it is also well-known that no incident was observed as a
result of the OSCE monitoring conducted on the Armenian-Azerbaijani
contact-line (the section bordering on Aghdam) on May 7.

Along with all this, the official Baku has been recently toughening its
approaches and making attempts to impose conditions not only upon
Armenia but also upon the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Especially great activeness is demonstrated by Deputy Foreign Minister
Araz Azimov who has become specialized in this area. Instead of
expressing attitudes towards the document on the table, he is all the
time busy making willful interpretations on their contents, in an
attempt to impose ultimatums on Armenia.

What has caused Azerbaijan to assume a menacing stance when the parties
assured the international community long ago that they are ready for
the peaceful settlement of the conflict and, as a result of long-term
negotiations, have already reached a certain agreement not only for the
maintenance of peace but also for some of the principles of the future
peace treaty? However, prior to the meeting of the two countries’
presidents, all this turns out to be of no importance for Azerbaijan,
since Araz Azimov believes that the underlying principle of the Prague
Process is the settlement of the conflict based upon Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity.

We believe presenting this kind of invented approach as a precondition
for peaceful settlement is nothing more than a way leading the
negotiations to a deadlock. Having adopted this course, Azerbaijan has
recently started to create an impression on the international arena
that it has serious intentions for resuming the military operations.
One of the first questions addressed to a foreign diplomat or political
scientist visiting Azerbaijan concerns the prospect of a new possible
Armenian-Azerbaijani war.

However, the responses made by the representatives of different
countries cannot obviously inspire Azerbaijan with enthusiasm. Thus,
Johannes Rau, a well-known German expert, found that `Considering the
energy security issues, the European Union has the utmost concerns over
the possibility of resuming the war in Karabakh, since there are some
communication lines located at distance of 20 kilometers from the
conflict zone.’

The Russian experts demonstrate a more restrained attitude towards such
`tricks’ intended to arouse anxiety among the international community
and hence – create a `motivation’ of making pressure upon Armenia. For
instance, Alan Kasaev, `Ria Novosti’ agency’s chief expert on CIS and
Baltic countries, is sure that `There will be no war in Karabakh in the
near future, at least in the course of the coming five years.’

It’s more than clear that prior to the Serge Sargsyan-Ilham Aliev
meeting, the official Baku has great desires to inspire the
international community and especially Armenia with the idea that it is
stronger and fully prepared for the war and can no longer remain
patient; therefore, two options are left: either war or ceding
territories to Azerbaijan through negotiations. However, such
propaganda tools are unlikely to make a serious impression on the
highly-experienced diplomats of the OSCE Minsk Group, let alone
Armenia; especially considering that Ilham Aliev cannot seriously think
about resuming the military operations before presidential election to
be held on October 15.

We believe that the `boyishness’ of the Azeri diplomats and the
country’s state propaganda is fully within the logic of the process of
preparing for the upcoming presidential campaign.

Not having attained serious results in the Karabakh peace talks but
having great desires to be re-elected, the Azerbaijani president must
be able to gain control over the revanchist moods from the very start
and prevent his political rivals from doing the same before the
February 15 voting.