VERY WORRYING WORDS FROM ST PETERSBURG
by Anna V. Hakobyan

Haykakan Zhamanak
June 7 2008
Armenia

Yesterday [6 June] the Nagornyy Karabakh negotiations renewed within
the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group with the meeting held between
[Armenian President] Serzh Sargsyan and [Azerbaijani President]
Ilham Aliyev.

"Worrying" statements

The mere fact of the renewal of the negotiations is as positive as
what happened in St Petersburg yesterday is worrying, in particular
some statements made there. This is all about the statements by US
co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Matthew Bryza which are more than
worrying for the Republic of Armenia. Matthew Bryza, in particular,
spoke about the return of occupied territories and said the following:
"After these territories are returned and will be part of Azerbaijan,
they will be demilitarized, international peacekeeping forces will be
deployed there, Armenia’s armed forces will withdraw and will not be
in the current tense situation when Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s troops
look at each other across mined areas, at the distance of hundred of
metres in some cases".

One should only hope that he just mixed things up by using the words
"Armenia’s armed forces", "Armenia’s troops" rather than the phrases
"the Armenian troops" and "the Armenian armed forces". Bryza however
did not stop at that point. "So, I hope that our friends in Armenia
will feel themselves safer after these territories are returned. I
hope that this will have a positive impact on Armenia’s political
system as well," Bryza said.

He added that certain risks may occur for the Armenian president,
if he gives his consent to the return of the occupied territories
to Azerbaijan. However, as there are quite attractive provisions
for Armenia in the option for the conflict’s settlement currently
available at the negotiations table, there is a possibility that those
ones will attract the Armenian side. Matthew Bryza identified the
establishment of a corridor connecting Nagornyy Karabakh and Armenia
and the mechanism for determining Armenia’s [as published, actually
Nagornyy Karabakh’s] status as some of the attractive provisions.

"I would like to mention once again that the agreement should
be acceptable for Armenia as well," Bryza said. In other words,
Bryza implied that an agreement can be also concluded if it is not
acceptable for Armenia, but that will not be done for the time being
only because the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs will be generous to not
let this happen. Incidentally, before making his above statements
Bryza said that, in his opinion, the Russian government, at least
Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Yuriy Merzlyakov did not
share his opinion.

Reason for concern

The statements of this kind can be made every day, but only if there
is a political need. Thus, Armenia’s incumbent authorities should
of course think about and analyse these statements of the co-chairs
for a long time. As for the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting, judging by
the fact that [Armenian ex-President] Robert Kocharyan was not at
the negotiations table, one should suppose that he has dropped this
absurd idea [return of territories] eventually. The Sargsyan-Aliyev
meeting resembled the Kocharyan-Aliyev meetings of the last years,
at least at a glance of an outsider. In comparison, Serzh Sargsyan
did not leave the meeting in the middle, as Robert Kocharyan did a
few times, but it is possible that he could do this.

[Passage omitted: Details of the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting]

As it has been expected, the major result of the negotiations with
the new Armenian president in attendance, which have been interrupted
due to the presidential election in Armenia [on 19 February], was a
decision to continue the talks on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict’s
settlement within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group. At a joint
news conference after yesterday’s negotiations, the Armenian and
Azerbaijani foreign ministers, Edvard Nalbandyan and Elmar Mammadyarov
respectively, described the meeting between Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham
Aliyev as constructive and positive.

Mattew Bryza said about the yesterday’s meeting: "The expectations
came true, I mean we expected that the meeting would be of a
familiarization nature, it turned out to be such. Mood was positive,
constructive." These, however, are standard statements which are made
after any meeting. Let’s not forget, it has been also reported that
the co-chairs are expected to visit the region, and the two foreign
ministers will meet, and the issue of the [next] meeting between the
two presidents will depend on these results.