RAND: AK PARTY CLOSURE WILL DEEPEN DIVIDE

Today’s Zaman
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June 16 2008
Turkey

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) of Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to take a moderate course if it is
not closed down by the Constitutional Court and act more cautiously
about pressing for measures that could be perceived as changing the
secular-religious balance in the country or provoking the secularists
into another attempt to remove it from power, a study sponsored by
the Pentagon has predicted.

The report, sponsored by the undersecretary of defense for policy and
conducted by the International Security and Defense Policy Center
of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, also found that
the religious-secularist divide will deepen within Turkey and that
Turkey’s relations with the European Union will become more problematic
if the ruling party is closed. Shutting down the AK Party, however,
is unlikely to eliminate it as a political force because "if it is
closed, the party is likely to simply reemerge under another name,"
the report said.

"It would, however, sharpen the secularist-religious divide within
Turkey and could lead some pious Turks to lose faith in the political
system. Turkey’s prospects of EU membership, already facing serious
obstacles, would be further jeopardized," the report, penned by Angel
Rabasa and F. Stephen Larrabee, predicted.

The AK Party is facing closure on charges of becoming a focal point of
anti-secular activities. Its senior members, including Prime Minister
Erdogan, and President Abdullah Gul, a former AK Party member, are
also facing political bans.

Assessing the alternative scenarios for Turkish politics, the RAND
report said the AK Party will be faced with structural limits for
opening space for Islam in the public sphere. One such limitation
stems from the fact that "the Kemalist establishment remains largely
intact" and that "any government that crosses the lines that define the
acceptable role of religion in politics risks accentuating political
tensions and possibly provoking intervention by the military." Other
factors, such as Turkey’s Western orientation and the presence of
a moderate and pluralistic tradition of Islam that does not embrace
rigid interpretations or Shariah rule will also lead the AK Party to
take a moderate path.

According to the report, there are other scenarios under which
the AK Party could pursue a more aggressive Islamist agenda or the
military could intervene in the country’s politics, but they look less
likely. It noted that there were secularist Turks who were worried
that the AK Party would appoint Islamists to state posts and turn
away from Europe to create a rival Islamic bloc. But this "creeping
Islamization" scenario is unlikely for several reasons: "First, it
would lead to greater political polarization and would likely provoke
intervention by the military. Second, most Turks support a secular
state and oppose a state based on the Shariah. Third, EU membership has
been a core element of the AK Party’s foreign policy," said the report.

As for possible direct military intervention, the report said this
would occur only as a last resort in the event that the AK Party
presses for an Islamic agenda more aggressively. "A confrontation
could take place if the AK Party takes actions seen by the military
as crossing important lines. …While direct intervention by the
military cannot be excluded from consideration, especially if the AK
Party begins to push an Islamic agenda more aggressively, it is not
very likely and would occur only as a last resort after the military
had exhausted all other options," said the report.

The report noted that the AK Party’s Erdogan, unlike his Islamist
predecessor, Necmettin Erbakan, was oriented toward Europe and that
the party’s electoral success "does not translate into popular support
for an Islamist agenda." Assessing the implications of the AK Party’s
pro-European policies, the report said they paved the way for the
reconfiguration of Turkish politics as well: "As the West became a
tacit ally of the AK Party, formerly pro-Western secularists surfaced
as opponents of EU accession. The [main opposition Republican People’s
Party] CHP, once the champion of a Western orientation for Turkey, has
increasingly moved in a more nationalistic direction and has adopted
a more ambiguous attitude toward the West, seeing some aspects of the
West’s influence as a threat to the integrity of the Turkish state
and Kemalism."

Lessons for US: Turkish alliance in Mideast not taken for granted With
its renewed focus on Middle Eastern affairs and growing interests in
the region, Turkey is likely to avoid offering the United States a
blank check for military cooperation, a US study has revealed.

The study, sponsored by the Pentagon and conducted by the International
Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense
Research Institute, said the Turkish policy toward the Middle
East is likely to remain a sensitive issue in bilateral US-Turkish
relations. "Turkey’s growing interests in the Middle East are likely to
make Ankara wary about allowing the United States to use its military
facilities for regional contingencies except where such operations are
clearly perceived to be in Turkey’s interest," it said, calling for a
diversification of US access options that would provide alternatives
to Ä°ncirlik air base in case Turkey increases restrictions on US
use of it or other Turkish facilities.

Turkey disappointed the US by refusing to cooperate militarily in the
war on Iraq in 2003. Iran, whose nuclear program is viewed with deep
suspicion by the US, is expected to be the next issue of contention
between Ankara and Washington in the event the US administration
decides to go ahead with military sanctions to force Tehran to end
its nuclear program.

The RAND report also cautioned the US administration against describing
Turkey as a "model" for coexistence of Islam and democracy in its
political system because this makes many Turks, particularly the
secularists and the military who believe that it pushes Turkey
politically closer to the Middle East and weakens Turkey’s Western
identity, "uncomfortable."

This, however, does not mean that Turkey is different from other
Muslim countries in its long experience with fusing Islam with
Westernization. Referring to Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development
Party (AK Party), the report said: "The ability of a party with
Islamic roots to operate within the framework of a secular democratic
system while respecting the boundaries between religion and state
would refute the argument that Islam cannot be reconciled with modern
secular democracy. On the other hand, if the experiment fails, it
could lead to greater secular-Islamic polarization, further reducing
the middle ground needed to build the moderate Muslim bulwark needed
to contain the spread of radicalized Islam."

"Beyond Turkey, the accommodation of Islam with democracy and
secularism that has been achieved there is a valuable resource in
the current ideological conflict between radical and mainstream
interpretations of Islam. Mainstream entities in Turkey, therefore,
should be encouraged to partner with groups and institutions
elsewhere in the Muslim world to propagate moderate and pluralistic
interpretations of Islam," the report also noted.

The report dismissed characterization of the current tensions in Turkey
as a struggle between "Islamists" and "secularists" and said these
tensions were "a part of a struggle for power between newly emerging
social sectors and the secularized elite — a struggle between the
‘periphery’ and the ‘center’– that has deep roots in Ottoman and
recent Turkish history."

It also noted that while the AK Party has Islamic roots, "it enjoys
broad-based political support that transcends religious, class,
and regional differences" and suggested Washington should remain
committed to supporting Turkey’s membership in the EU because this
would "rebut the claim that the West, especially Europe, is innately
hostile to Muslims."

Future US administrations will need to work closely with congressional
leaders to ensure that the Armenian issue does not poison future
relations with Turkey, the report said, and urged Washington to follow
up with concrete steps in its current cooperation with Turkey against
the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ä°stanbul Today’s Zaman

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