ARMENIAN GENOCIDE RESOLUTION PASSAGE "WILL DO NOTHING TO FOSTER TURKISH-ARMENIAN RECONCILIATION"

PanARMENIAN.Net
16.06.2008 16:10 GMT+04:00

Faced with a difficult dilemma due to the ongoing closure case against
the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, the United States
should underscore its strong support for Turkish democracy, according
to a report by a prominent U.S.

think tank.

In developing its position the U.S government needs to tread lightly
lest perceived interference in Turkey’s internal affairs provoke a
counterproductive nationalist reaction, advised the recently released
report by the Pittsburgh-based RAND Corporation.

Sponsored by the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, the report,
entitled "The rise of political Islam in Turkey", was penned by Angel
Rabasa and Stephen Larrabeethe. It examines the ascent of the AKP to
power and discusses four possible scenarios for Turkey’s future and
their implications for American foreign policy.

According to Rabasa and Larrabee, the United States has a strong stake
in a stable, democratic Turkey and in the success of a political
model that showcases the coexistence of a ruling political party
rooted in Islam and secular democracy. "An unstable Turkey wracked
by internal dissension would make it even more difficult to stabilize
Iraq and enhance regional stability in and around the Persian Gulf,"
said the report.

The U.S. approach would be more likely to be effective if it were
carried out in coordination with the European Union, the report
continued. Given the sensitivity of the issue of Turkish membership
in Europe, the U.S. should quietly support Turkey’s EU membership
bid behind the scenes and avoid overt pressure. At the same time,
Washington needs to recognize that Turkish membership in the EU
would have an impact on American-Turkish relations in the long run
given that Turkey’s foreign policy would be likely to become more
Europeanized over time, according to the researchers.

"Turkey’s growing interests in the Middle East are likely to make
Ankara wary about allowing the United States to use its military
facilities for Middle East and Persian Gulf contingencies,
except where such operations are clearly perceived to be in
Turkey’s interest, predicted the report. The United States cannot,
therefore, automatically count on being able to use Turkish bases
for its operations and should look for alternatives as well," said
the report’s chapter dedicated to Incirlik

As to the Armenian Genocide issue, RAND Corporation supposes that if
the H.Res.106 "were to pass, the Turkish government could come under
domestic pressure to take retaliatory action, possibly curtailing
American access to Incirlik and other Turkish facilities. The passage
of a resolution recognizing World War I-era killings of Armenians
at the hands of the Ottomans as genocide will do nothing to foster
Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, maintained the researchers, urging
the executive branch to work closely with the congressional leadership
to keep the issue from poisoning relations with Ankara."

The Corporation also demanded more U.S. pressure on Iraqi Kurds. "The
United States needs to deal more resolutely with the outlawed
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, terrorist attacks against Turkish
territory, according to the report, which added that closer military
and intelligence cooperation with Ankara against the PKK needs to be
followed up by other concrete steps. In particular, the United States
needs to put greater pressure on the Kurdistan Regional Government,
or KRG, to crack down on the PKK and cease its logistical and political
support of the group," the report said.

However, the report added that the PKK threat cannot be resolved
by military means alone. "While a tough anti-terrorist program is
an important component of a long-term strategy to defeat the PKK,
it must be combined with social and economic reforms that address
the root causes of the Kurdish grievances. In addition, America
should encourage Turkey to enter into a direct dialogue with the KRG
leadership. There can be no long-term stability on Turkey’s southern
border without accommodation of the KRG. This does not mean that
Turkey should recognize an independent Kurdish state, but it does
need to reach an understanding with the KRG, whose cooperation is
essential to reduce the PKK threat," the report said.