FROM UNCHECKED POWER TO MORE OF THE SAME?

Nigar GOKSEL

Turkish Daily News
June 19 2008

Disillusionment with democracy seems to be widespread in many
countries in our region. Obviously, the process began at different
stages for different countries, and expectations were higher to begin
with for some – ultimately it is all relative. The hope of having a
viable choice of leader, of being subject to reliable rule of law,
of better life standards is not fulfilled for many. In part, the
extent of how well-equipped those who hold power are in comparison
to the opposition creates a vicious (or virtuous, depending on where
you stand) circle. Those seated in power positions (or those assumed
to have the most chance in the next elections – rigged or not) are
aligned with businessmen, bureaucrats and the like, for the attached
opportunities.

Democracy not viable yet?:

The strong minds, the money, the momentum gravitates – pumped also by
well-financed PR campaigns. The gap in human capital and resources
widens, where these are already far too scarce. The prospects can
be very gloomy if you have not bet on the right horse. Counterpart
countries with stakes, strategic or economic, often take the
(predicted) winning side too, getting a head start in negotiating their
deals, and contributing to the self-fulfilling prophecy. Consolidation
of power is not necessarily all bad, especially in times of dramatic
transformation, when decisions need to be bold, rapid and enforced,
often despite a weak public administration. Supporters of the
governments point to the lack of vision and professionalism of the
opposition, and argue that they would not be able to govern. How does
one know when a country is ripe for this cycle to be interrupted?

In Georgia, a new government has been formed after a 59,18 percent
victory by the ruling party in the May parliamentary elections. Earlier
this year President Saakashvili was re-elected. Skeptics grumble that
he has recruited the best and brightest experts from the vibrant NGO
community. Given the reformist and pro-West approach of the government,
Western donor support for state programs has skyrocketed; critical NGOs
note this has been at the expense of their funding. Indeed, to deliver
much-needed services and to restructure institutions, the state needs
support. On the other hand, opposition looses blood. Faced with the
strains of rapid reform and security challenges, was it reasonable to
expect anything but emphasis on monopolizing power? In Armenia whether
the still impassioned movement against the administration in power
since spring (which many see to be a continuation of the previous)
will change the landscape is still an open question.

However, many seasoned experts of the region are doubtful. Political
apathy, which characterized the society for years prior, could very
well return. With the coming of October, an election will be held
in Azerbaijan. There are four presidential candidates, however, the
victory of Ä°lham Aliyev is all but known. The stakes of stability are
high, due to both energy resources and the delicate balance of power,
particularly between the United States and Russia, in the region. In
Turkey, due to stringent criteria to qualify to run in the elections, a
high threshold to enter Parliament, and no public financing to parties
that do not get 7 percent of the popular vote, the political system
favors those already strong. And once single-party rule is obtained,
the prime minister has strong control over the legislative.

Consolidating power in the judiciary takes longer, but in time, it
also falls into sway, based on the system which foresees the executive
appoint and promote judges and prosecutors. The more time spent in
power, the less checks and balances. The current crisis in Turkey has
a lot to do with the system, which, the subsequent governments have
not had an incentive to change either, by nature of the advantages
they too would have lost. For a stretch of time starting from the
turn of the century, the EU process indeed provided protection
from many populist reflexes common to Turkish politicians. The fact
that the EU does not have conditions that would clearly spell out
how the checks and balances need to be struck among the executive,
legislative and judiciary is a pity. Though concerns about military
power are often justified, taking this aspect up without looking at the
larger picture of distortion in the system is looking more and more
like it will not yield satisfactory results. Today, some democracy
advocates of the past are questioning whether democracy is viable
in Turkey. The ideologically motivated (read: religiously networked)
are more organized and enthusiastic about politics than the rest and
the years just don’t seem to be mending the many loopholes in the
democratic system. Even the Europeans and Americans are using their
words about democracy warily.

Bad governance vs over-concentrated power?:

In 2003 and 2004, a different atmosphere prevailed. There was
enthusiasm, especially emanating from the United States, that popular
will would bring about a change of power in this region. The Rose
Revolution in Georgia was emboldening. The skyrocketing growth rates
in Azerbaijan raised hopes, as did the questions as to whether Ä°lham
Aliyev was going to be able to keep the tight power hold his father
did. A party finally representing the masses and firmly committed to
the EU seemed to be carrying Turkey to a new league that would also
lift the prospects of neighbors, especially the Muslim ones. (It
is fair to say the Turkish state authorities never really "bought"
this vision to begin with). By now, a less upbeat but more realistic
understanding has sunk in. One big wave will not engulf the region,
imbuing the masses with both more say and the "right" demands. While
many things have improved in the countries mentioned in this piece –
reforms, growth and more – a lot has remained the same, such as crony
relationships, political infighting, a lack of translation of growth
into better living conditions, and the perception of a choice between
chaos/bad-governance and over-concentrated power.

–Boundary_(ID_ClkXeHh6LDOwZDOsGUn8SA)–