AZERIS TO ADD DRONES TO THEIR MILITARY ARSENAL
Jirair Haratunian

ArmeniaNow.com
04 July, 2008
Armenia

Armenian Assembly of America

Internet has carried headlines from Baku and Yerevan on the latest
in military buildup . . .

"Azeris May Buy Drones From Israel"

"Azerbaijan to Buy UAVs to Watch Over Occupied Areas"

"Armenia Takes Conuntermeasures in Response to Azerbaijan Buying
Unmanned Aircraft"

"Karabakh to enlarge Security Zone if Azerbaijan Attacks"

There’s more but the picture is clear. The war rhetoric from Baku is
now amplified by reports that 10 unmanned robotic reconnaissance
aircraft, popularly called "drones," are being purchased from
Israel. This news follows another report that Azerbaijan is raising
its annual defense budget to new heights: from $1 billion to $1.3
billion next year. Armenian responses are equally stark. Nagorno
Karabakh’s president warns that Armenian forces will seize more
territory to enlarge its security zone if Azerbaijan attacks. And
in Yerevan, Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian asserted that defense
counter-measures are being taken by Armenia’s military forces.

Drones have become increasingly employed in warfare today. Israel
uses them to track Hamas insurgents in Gaza, and Americans search
out al-Qaeda and other insurgents in Iraq and Taliban fighters in
Afghanistan. In one of the South Caucasus conflict zones, a Georgian
drone was shot down by a Russian jet over the disputed region of
Abkhazia. The Georgians protested loudly and criticism was heard from
Washington, but the Georgians were not about to go to battle against
Russian troops in Abkhazia over the incident.

However, one must wonder about the consequences if one of Azerbaijan’s
newly purchased drones was destroyed by an Armenian military
jet. Could that ignite large-scale warfare in the Karabakh region? It
certainly can and some analysts predict renewed fighting is becoming
inevitable. One Armenian political analyst, Levon Melik-Shahnazarian
has written: "As soon as Azerbaijan concludes that it militarily
surpasses Armenia it will not hesitate a second (to attack). In an
analysis on June 20, Trend News Agency wrote, "Azerbaijani experts
believe that if military expenditures continue to be expanded by both
countries, the resumption of military operations between Azerbaijan
and Armenia will be inevitable."

The reaction from United States officials to this danger ranged from
sharp questions in Congress, to more muted concerns from American
diplomats. In a June 18 congressional hearing entitled "The Caucasus:
Frozen Conflicts and Closed Borders" House Foreign Affairs Committee
Chairman Howard Berman (D-CA) expressed alarm over the situation
stating, "I’m deeply concerned by the increasingly bellicose statements
made over the past year about Nagorno Karabakh, by senior Azerbaijani
officials, as well as the steady increase in Azerbaijan’s defense
budget as that nation acquires more oil wealth. The serious breakdown
earlier this year in the 14-year-old cease-fire has been widely blamed
on Azerbaijani provocations."

Sharp questions were directed at Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary
of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, who testified at the
hearing. In a more diplomatically nuanced response Fried said, in part,
"We hope that the Azerbaijani government will avoid the temptation
of thinking that renewed fighting is a viable option. In our view
it is not. We have noted our concern with persistent bellicose
rhetoric by some Azerbaijani officials." He carefully neglected to
note that President Aliyev is the most insistent Azerbaijani saber
rattler. Fried went on to say that the United States calls on Baku
"to focus on the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh dispute."

What is clear is that the moment is fraught with danger. It is
universally agreed that the sharp increase in the military inventory
of Azerbaijan and corresponding improvement of Armenia’s defense
arsenal intensifies the threat of a new Karabakh war.

One good sign was that peace talks brokered by the OSCE’s Minsk Group
co-chairs were resumed in St. Petersburg. It was President Serge
Sarkisian’s first opportunity to directly engage President Aliyev in
the peace process. No agreements were reached nor were any expected;
however, Aliyev did reiterate Baku’s commitment to the primacy of the
OSCE’s Minsk Group as the principal mechanism for the resolution of
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. That was a small but important shift in
tactics by the Azeri president. In recent months Baku had attempted
to circumvent the OSCE and move the Karabakh issue to the larger
diplomatic arena of the United Nations, where it had the automatic
support of virtually all the Islamic nations and those states that
are confronted by secession-minded minorities.

In sum, the atmosphere is extremely dangerous and the flicker
of hope for a peaceful settlement is dim. What is needed is for
the international community to more forcefully insist that the
resumption of war is unacceptable. New investments in the energy
and transportation sectors are at risk, as is the stability of the
entire region. As for Armenia, it must keep its military capabilities
at the highest levels of efficiency. But just as important, sane
minds must prevail so that the current internal political tensions
do not jeopardize the physical security of the people in Armenia and
Nagorno Karabakh.