ARIF YUNUSOV: "SERZH SARGSYAN OBVIOUSLY FEELS NOT AT EASE IN AN ATTEMPT TO BECOME CLOSER TO RUSSIA AND THE WEST AND PLEASE ALL OF THEM"
Today.Az
04 July 2008
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with famous conflict expert Arif Yunusov.
– How do you assess the current sociopolitical situation in Armenia?
– It is difficult to specify situation in Armenia in brief,
because the events there develop by a script differing from ours or
Georgia’s. Parallels can be formally drawn with the 2003 events and
I can say that the same occurred in Armenia in spring.
At the same time, the situation is even more complicated. Thus, on
the other hand, the society demonstrated strong resentment with the
ruling regime. The fact that regime is not local but originates from
Karabakh even added negative. In the result, people were waiting for
a charismatic and wise opposition leader to reverse the situation
in Armenia.
Levon Ter-Petrosyan has become such a leader, through his second
appearance on the political stage astonished most people greatly,
for Armenia thought he will never return as a politician again. The
statements that the Armenian people will not forgive the terror,
suffered by the people, especially Yerevan residents in the ealy 1990s,
have been repeatedly made before. But it all sank into oblivion. The
most important thing were the organizational and declamatory skills
of the first President.
But it is not enough to have a leader and intention of the society. For
such small countries, as ours, reaction of the leading geopolitical
players is crucial. But here everything is different. In West’s
opinion Armenian opposition was untimely in raising the combat, as
now Russia’s position is more important for the West and today it is
not profitable for the West to argue with Russia for Armenia. This
is not Georgia, where the majority of population is anti-Russian. It
is unclear how can it affect the West in Armenia. Russia’s positions
are strong enough here.
In the result, opposition failed to complete its duty. Russia did not
believe to Ter-Petrosyan urgently arriving in Moscow, while the West
has taken the wait-and see stance, while Armenian society was striken
with pessimistic spirits. Today, these very feelings-disappointment
and pessimism are defining for understanding the situation in Armenia.
At the same time, it can not be said that Serzh Sargsyan has managed to
consolidate his positions. He still feels not at ease while attempting
to get closer to the strongest countries – Russia and the West and
wants to please all of them.
On the other hand, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and his supporters have a
rich political experience, they were caught in such situations and
managed to find a way our. Thus, there has been a certain pause in
the political situation in Armenia, which will probably last until
spring of the next year, when situation in Armenia may deteriorate
again under the influence of talks on Karabakh and PACE resolution,
and perhaps on other reasons. But there can hardly be anything serious
in Armenia before it.
– How would you comment on the statement of first Armenian president
Levon Ter-Petrosyan who said that adoption of resolution 1620 at
PACE summer session regarding Armenia is illogical and "evidences the
unscrupulousness of this organization and that the West has created
virtual Armenia for itself and now tries to prove us that the country
where we live is wonderful"?
– Levon Ter-Petrosyan statement proves strong disappointment with the
West’s position. We have sustained this repeatedly in Azerbaijan, while
Armenians have faced this for the first time, as opposition hoped for
the principal position of the West in the face of the OSCE and PACE.
But it did not occur, which has become a kind of a cold shower
for Armenian opposition. But belief in West has been preserved,
otherwise what should they do? Russia’s position in the elections
in any country in the post-Soviet area is primordially known, there
is nothing unclear there. There is no Islam factor in Armenia as
well. Therefore, Armenian opposition’s choise is too restricted. It is
too discontented with the position of the West, if exactly, western
organizations, it will periodically criticize them, but at the same
time not lose hope for their assistance.
– What is a difference between Azerbaijani and Armenian opposition?
– The differences are great and they are caused by many factors,
including actions of the authorities, position of the society
and reaction of geopolitical actors. There is a great difference
everywhere.
For example, energy factor plays important role for the West in
Azerbaijan. Therefore, the West shows passive reaction to the
actions of the authorities, formally in order not to spoil their
image completely. As is said, even PACE resolutions smell of oil
in Azerbaijan, which will last until the time when oil reserve are
exhausted. Our authorities are aware of it, and act fearlessly as
they understand that nothing threatens to them in real. Therefore
they can use force and money is enough to buy opposition when
necessary. Besides, our society is also pessimistic.
The situation is quite different in Armenia and the society is not so
pessimistic there and the West thinks not about the reserves in the
country, therefore, at some stage it will impose pressure on Armenian
authorities and assist to opposition. The latter just hurried, as
our compatriots in South Azerbaijan did in May of 2006.
At the same time, our opposition has to learn from Armenian’s. First
of all, Armenian opposition has a definite strategy, which it executes
consistently enough or at least tries to implement. And tactically it
is more creative. Let’s recall the story with the spread of DVD and
cassettes from Ter-Petrosyan’s meeting among the population. Know-How
is on the high level. It also invests something and tries to act
unexpectedly.
– Nevertheless, despite expectations of most experts, June 20 meeting
of the Armenian opposition involves masses. How did Armenian opposition
manage to attain such a success, as conduction of mass protest action
in the center of Yerevan in conditions of strong pressure by Armenian
authorities?
– Everything is relative. The pressure of Armenian authorities
on opposition is in fact not so strong, especially in comparison
with us. On March 1 the authorities managed to take control of
the situation only with use of force and deploying army in the
streets. Now, when the pressure of the authorities has weakened,
the opposition has a chance to conduct its activity. The question is
how to atract masses? Ter-Petrosyan managed to relieve a part of the
society from apathy and distrust in their powers. But only a part
of the society. Another part, especially beyond the capital city,
is still sleepy and fearing its authorities. Thus, the meetings in
Yerevan are only attended by those who joined them in February-March.
– In this case, what can we expect from the meeting of Armenian
opposition, scheduled for July 4?
– This meeting will not be so decisive for Armenia. The past script
will repeat. Another moment is important here: Armenian opposition,
led by Ter-Petrosyan always invents and undertakes something,
permanently holding the authorities under tension, which is important.
This means that the working Armenian regime will always be under
pressure, Even summer vocations are not for them, through traditionally
political activity is declining in this period, while in Armenia we
see different developments, which is a result of opposition’s actions.