LEBANESE CRISIS AND ARAB WORLD
Boris DOLGOV
01 .07.2008
Lebanon
The events of May – June 2008 in Lebanon resulted from an old political
crisis the nation had been living through.
In early May, 2008, the Lebanese government headed by Fuad Saniora,
decided to shut down Hezbollah`s telecoms network.1 The same
day, the government fired the head of Beirut airport’s security,
Brig. Gen. Wafik Shoukeir, amid its investigation into allegations
that Hezbollah had installed cameras and other monitoring equipment
at the airport. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah viewed the actions
as a "declaration of open war to Hezbollah and attempt to put Lebanon
under U.S and Israeli control".
Armed Hezbollah groups and its allies seized a TV center in Beirut,
took over the offices of a pro-governmental ‘Al-Mustaqbal’ newspaper
and halted work on Beirut airport and seaport. New clashes between
Hezbollah rebels, their political allies and supporters of Fuad
Saniora`s governmental coalition erupted to last for 7 days and take
lives of more than 80 people.
The Lebanese army was not involved in the clashes and took active
steps only after the government canceled the decision. Soon the
clashes were over and the situation improved. The Arab League acted
as a mediator in the talks in Doha on May 21, 2008, and there was
achieved an agreement between the opposing sides to form a national
unity government and to elect General Michel Suleiman as Lebanon`s
President. The former President, Emil Lahoud, stepped down in late
2006 after he failed to overcome the national crisis.
The Lebanese parliament, headed by a Hezbollah member Nabih Berri,
set the election date for 10 times, but because of harsh political
differences the deputies failed to elect a new leader.
Currently, Lebanon`s political world is divided in two groups. The
first group is represented by the alliance of political figures
opposed to the government and lead by Shi`a Islamic Hezbollah
movement. Another Shi`a party, Amal (Hope), some Sunnis headed by
Lebanon`s Karami family, General Aoun`s "Free National Movement",
representing Christian community, and also a part of left-centered
forces (a few members-Muslim as well as Christian- of the Lebanese
Communist party). This group is also supported by the Arab Socialist
Baath Party and followers of Gamal Naser.
The other group consists of "Al-Mustaqbal" party, led by Saad Hariri,
the son of Rafik Hariri, who was killed in assassination in 2005.
"Al-Mustaqbal" is part of a Sunni community and supports the Lebanese
government and its chief Fuad Saniora. The right-centered "Kataib"
movement of Christian Maronites2 and the Lebanese Forces movement,
uniting the Shamoun and Franje right Christian clans. The Druze
community3 headed by Walid Djumblat represent the "National Patriotic
Forces" political block. Yet this party has not clearly defined its
position and has contacts with both Hezbollah and "Al-Mustaqbal". It
is worth mentioning that this scheme is approximate, and form time
to time a leader in every group changes its views.
The roots of the crisis should be viewed only in context of
Lebanon`s ethnic, religious and historical development. Lebanon is a
multi-confessional state, where people of 15 religions co-exist. Mainly
they are Christian Maronites, Catholics, Armenians-Grigorians,
Orthodox Christians and also Muslims- Shia, Sunni and Druz. The
Constitution of Lebanon and its system of state grants to Christian
Maronites top posts on a permanent basis: president, army chief,
central bank head. While a Sunni Muslim traditionally occupies the
post of prime minister and a parliament speaker is Shi`a.
Such system of state seemed to be a proper one soon after Lebanon was
de facto recognized a sovereign state in 1946, after the French troops
left its territory. But in the course of time the Muslim population
began to dominate4 and demand changes in the system of state. To some
extent, it explains the current conflict although it should rather
be viewed as political.
What is peculiar about Lebanon’s public and political life is its
clannish and ethnic character. Major political groups have their
armed units. The country`s participation in the Arab-Israeli conflict
and in a civil war in mid-1970s had a great impact on Lebanon`s
political situation. As a result of the Arab-Israeli wars, vast
Lebanon`s territories in the region of Shabaa Farms were occupied by
Israel. There also appeared refugee camps, which currently give home
to 250,000 of Palestinians.
The escalation of tension in Lebanon happened in late 2006-early 2007,
when clashes between the students supporting different political
parties erupted in many districts of Beirut, Tripoli and Saidu. The
clashes took the lives of several people. Soon after the government
imposed a curfew in Beirut, leaders of the opposing groups- Hasan
Nasrallah and Saad Hariri-called on their supporters to stop violence
and leave the streets.
The clashes erupted when members of the international community
gathered at a summit in Paris to decide how to help Lebanon recover
after Israeli attacks in summer 2006. There it was decided to support
Fuad Saniora`s government and provide financial assistance to Beirut
(Saudi Arabia announced a $1,1 billion aid,while U.S. And EU said
they would allocate $0,5 billion). The U.S was going to spend the
money on Lebanon`s security, in other words- to fund the army and
security forces, where Washington and Tel-Aviv expected to strengthen
their influence.
A joint U.S.-Israeli strategy in Lebanon is aimed at the implementation
of a plan which failed during Israel`s 2006 invasion: to use some
Lebanese political groups and the army to suppress Hezbollah, dubbed
by President George W. Bush as "second Al-Qaeda".
Here we should note Russia`s growing role and authority in the
Middle East.
In January, 2007, "Al-Mustaqbal" leader Saad Hariri visited Russia
to discuss issues of bilateral relations and ask Russia to help
Lebanon avoid foreign interference in its home affairs. The problem
is that some very authoritative pro-Syrian forces5 are active in
Lebanon nowadays, but they are constantly pressed by Israel and
U.S. If Turkey mediates the peace talks between Israel and Syria,
the situation in the Middle East will change dramatically.
Iran for its part supports Islamic Shi`a movements in Lebanon.
The Arab League and, first of all, Saudi Arabia and Egypt as they are
doing their best to avoid a civil war in Lebanon, play a key role in
the settlement of the Lebanese crisis. After signing an agreement in
Doha on May 21, 2008, General Michel Suleiman was elected President
of Lebanon on May 25. After a series of consultations with major
parliamentary factions, he appointed Fuad Saniora as Prime Minister
despite objections from Hassan Nasrallah and General Aoun. Mr. Saniora
began his work aimed at the establishment of a national unity
government, which is due to consist of Hezbollah members as well.
This is a rather complicated process as both opposing parliamentary
groups are competing to receive key ministerial portfolios. The
situation becomes even worse as sporadic clashes between the sides
erupt from time to time.
For example, in late June, 2008, 24 people were injured and one killed
in a skirmish between Sunni and Alavit armed groups.
However, the situation is improving against all the odds. According
to a spokesman for General Aoun`s group, Walid Huri, a national unity
government is likely to be established in Lebanon in July.
Many members of the Lebanese parliament point to the role of President
Michel Suleiman in achieving an agreement with the opposition and
in the solution of numerous conflicts (as the one in Nahr al-Barid
refugee camp).
The Arab leaders support Mr. Suleiman`s initiative.
With the help of international community, mainly the Arab League,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Syria and Jordan, Lebanon managed to avoid
a civil war. But still, the situation there is tense enough. Lebanon`s
future depends not only on the balance of political forces there but
also on the unity of the Arab world in general.
_______________ 1 According to Egypt`s mass media, the move came as
an attempt to prevent direct contacts between Hezbollah and Iran`s
leadership and special services. The system played a key role in
Hezbollah`s war against Israel in July-August 2006 as the rebels
could make pinpoint strikes and confuse Israeli guidance systems.
2 Christian Maronites belong to one of the Syriac Eastern Catholic
Churches, with a heritage reaching back to St. Maron in early 5th
century.
3 The Druze are religious community found primarily in Lebanon, Israel
and Syria. It is unique in its incorporation of Gnostic, neo-Platonic,
pagan and other philosophies. The Fatimid caliph Al-Hakim bi-Amr Allah
is the central figure in the Druze faith, as he is considered by the
Druze to be the reincarnation and manifestation of God.
4 In 1920s Christians made up above 50% of the Lebanese population. As
of 2006, 3,925 million live in Lebanon, 40% of them are Shi`a Muslims,
while Christians make up only 30%.
5 Syria has a great influence on Lebanon. After Syrian troops entered
Lebanon in 1976,a civil war was over. However, some Lebanese and
U.S. And France did not like that Syrian state structures and special
services had too much power in Lebanon. Following a UN resolution,
Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2004. The death of Rafik
Hariri in assassination in February 2005 also had a negative impact
on cooperation with Syria as U.S.
Accused Damascus of involvement in the crime. (though no evidence
of this was provided by the UN commission). During Israel`s invasion
in Lebanon in 2006, Syria supported Beirut, helped refugees to flee
their homes and get humanitarian aid. Damascus allegedly provided
Hezbollah groups with arms.