IRAN: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

"Noravank" Foundation
03 July 2008

Sevak Sarukhanyan

On May 28 the newly elected parliament of Iran elected a new speaker.
As a result of voting the new head of Majlis became the ex-president of
Public Television and Radio, the former secretary of the Supreme
National Security Council Ali Larijani. Larijani’s victory may have an
important influence both on the activity of Majlis and the course of
events in preparation to presidential elections to be held next year.

The new parliament of Iran and coming presidential elections
In spite of the fact that A. Larijani represents the political wing of
right conservators and during the elections for the post of speaker was
supported by the president M. Ahmadinejad, his approaches are somehow
different from the ones of the representatives of the president’s
political team.

First: Ali Larijani, being a secular politician, has direct ties with
Iran’s spiritual authorities. Apart from the fact that Larijani was
born in the family of a clergyman, he is also the son-in law of a
well-known ideologist of Islamic revolution M. Mottaki. It is quite an
important precondition as the political plane of up-to-date Iran is
little by little separating from spiritual authorities: it has come to
be proved by the election of a secular president, M. Ahmadinejad, to
the post of president as well as by the staff of Majlis today, the
number of clergymen in which hardly exceeds 10%. In that way, in
comparison with most of the representatives of Iran’s contemporary
political plane, the `secular’ A. Larijani is not only the ideological
follower of clergymen but also their representative.

Second: A. Larijani, having enough conservative political ideas, is
more than acceptable by the international community. It has come to be
proved by the positive implication in reports and analyses of the
western press in connection with his election. Heading the group
engaged in negotiations with foreign countries on nuclear program, A.
Larijani differs by his considerably mild position and steps made not
only ones towards peaceful settlement of the nuclear program.

Third: A. Larijani was relieved of the post of National security
secretary by the president M. Ahmadinejad. According to a number of
international sources it is mainly reasoned by contradictions and
complicated interpersonal relations between them. In this sense the
election of A. Larijani is more probable to be considered a
propagandistic step by M Ahmadinejad, as only a little part of
conservatives making majority in the parliament support the president
and their position couldn’t influence on the decision of all
conservatives while electing A. Larijani to the post of the speaker.

All these have come to prove that quite an influential politician is
heading the Iranian parliament. The activity of this politician may
seriously raise the role of Parliament in the country’s political life.
One of the peculiarities of Iran’s state system is that the role of
parliament mainly depends on its leader. Let’s remember 1980-89s, when
the speaker of Parliament was A.A. Hashemi-Rafsanjani ` one of the most
important figures of Iran’s state system who had direct influence on
both home and foreign policy of the country.

The course of events of the coming 2009 presidential elections in Iran
will considerably depend on the parliament, the position of its members
and the chairman. There is a great probability that A Larijani may
become the candidate of a considerable part of conservatives, in that
way reducing the chances of M. Ahmadinejad to be reelection.

Teheran’s mayor, Mohammed Baker Kalibaf, is considered another possible
candidate; however his nomination for presidency will mainly be
conditioned by agreements with the very A. Larijani as at the last
presidential elections Teheran’s mayor and the newly elected speaker of
Parliament appeared in the framework of one political alliance.

Foreign challenges
During the past months the political developments around Iran became
quite complicated. Iran’s tough position towards the nuclear problem
hasn’t changed at all as a result of which in July-August of the
current year the Iranian nuclear program will again be discussed in the
UN Security Council. Should we judge by the announcements made by the
Iranian president, the coming months are not expected to bring any
mollification in Iran’s position. And this may cause new sanctions and
further isolation of Iran. It is possible that the new package of
sanctions, which may be applied to Iran, will have direct influence on
Iran’s financial relation with the external world. This has come to be
proved by the appeal of the president M. Ahmadinejad made on June 9 to
the Iranian businessmen, state and private structures to withdraw all
their funds from European banks. According to some information, Iranian
funds in European banks make $80 billion, and their possible `arrest’
may be a serious strike to the Iranian economy. Here one should take
into consideration two more circumstances:

Withdrawal of Iranian funds from European banks may also cause damage
to financial stability of Europe itself. It means that the appeal of
Iran’s president may also be of propagandistic character and become the
lever of influence on the Europeans’ position.
The policy adopted by M. Ahmadinejad stirs up discontent of the Iranian
business circles having direct connection with the UN countries, as
Europe is the economic partner number one for Iran both in the sphere
import and export of goods: accordingly, the president’s appeal is also
a strike to Iranian business circles: they may not be passive
participants at the coming presidential elections and must support this
or that candidate. It is not excluded that the Iranian president’s
approach is connection with gaining a serious lever of influence on the
country’s businessmen.
For Iran it is quite an important problem the further discussions on
the Iranian issue in the UN SC. It is known that during the last years
it has not been possible to apply sanctions to Iran because of the
position of the two constant UN members – Russia and China. There are
serious reasons to be concerned about possible changes in the position
of these two countries.

First: There is a newly elected president in Russia, who can’t but have
its own approaches to foreign political issues. Besides, in Russia and
over its borders possible alleviation of tension between Russian-west
relations is connected with D. Medvedev and his positions to topical
international issues. For Iran it is also an important question how the
further development in Russian-American relations may influence on the
position of Russia to Iranian issues.

Second: On the eve of Olympic Games expected to be held in China, the
anti-China campaign of the US has become an important lever of
influence in the hands of Washington not only on American-China
relations, but also on China’s approach to other states. Anti-China
campaign held by the United States having domination position in the
world information plane has made Beijing activate Chinese-American
negotiations on different levels called to solve a number of vexed
questions for Washington and Beijing. And under these conditions it is
extremely important for Iran what kind of changes will be made in
Beijing’s official position to Iran’s nuclear problem.

Other issues of author
ENTRANCE OF THE IRANIAN GAS INTO EUROPE [17.04.2008]
NEW DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM [31.03.2008]
US-TURKEY-AZERBAIJAN: A FORMAT OF NEW ENERGY COOPERATION [20.03.2008]
ON THE REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS [03.03.2008]
IRAN ON THE EVE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS [14.02.2008]
ON A NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS LEFT OUT OF COVERAGE IN 2007
[21.01.2008]
The visit of the RF President V.Putin to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
New restructuring on the regional energy map [21.06.2007]