AZERBAIJAN WANTS TO BORROW TWO UAVS FROM GEORGIA

Rezonansi
July 3 2008
Tbilisi

Baku and Tbilisi have been negotiating a sensitive question for about
a month now. The Azerbaijani government has asked Georgia to provide
two UAVs for a period of six months. The GPSearch.org website cited
an unidentified representative of the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry
as the source of this information.

According to the website, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was
planning to raise the question at his meeting with Mikheil Saakashvili
when he arrived in Batumi to attend the GUAM summit two days ago. It
is not known whether the two presidents actually discussed this and,
if so, how their conversation ended.

The source in the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry said that the aircraft
is to be used for reconnaissance missions in Nagornyy Karabakh.

The request has clearly created an awkward situation for Tbilisi since
Georgia has friendly relations both with Azerbaijan and Armenia. If
Baku’s request is rejected, the Azerbaijani government will be
unhappy. On the other hand, Yerevan is set to protest if Georgia
agrees to provide the UAVs.

The Georgian Defence Ministry’s press service has said that it knows
nothing about Azerbaijan’s request.

What should official Tbilisi do? Political analyst Ramaz Saqvarelidze
believes that Georgia faces a dilemma and will have to choose the
lesser of two evils.

"You can imagine how Armenia will react if Georgia provides Azerbaijan
with the UAVs. You probably remember that Georgia criticized
Russia for supplying weapons to the Abkhaz in the past. Similarly,
if Georgia hands over the aircraft to Azerbaijan, it will inflame
conflict between the two states, i.e. Georgia will contribute to the
resumption of conflict.

"Is it in Georgia’s interests to do this? The answer depends on
the strategy that the country will adopt. An individual sometimes
has to choose the lesser of two evils. Georgia will anger Aliyev
if it rejects Azerbaijan’s request. It will anger Armenia if it
provides the aircraft. The country will have to decide according to
its strategy which of the two options is the lesser of two evils",
Saqvarelidze said.

Relations with Azerbaijan more important than ties with Armenia

Political analyst Soso Tsintsadze holds a different view on this
subject.

"It is true that we need to maintain some kind of a balance
since Armenia is our neighbour but we are closer to Azerbaijan
than to Armenia as far as the matters of territorial integrity are
concerned. Moreover, the Azerbaijani press is not particularly pleased
with the fact that the [Georgian] president appointed Van Baiburt, an
ethnic Armenian, as his advisor on ethnic minorities. It is therefore
a very sensitive question.

"In truth, Armenia’s policy towards Georgia has not been quite
friendly. Since I am not an official, I can avoid the insincerity of
political correctness. Being an independent expert, I can express my
opinion and say the things that the Georgian government will never
say because of diplomatic ethics and national interests.

"If Georgia were to choose, relations with Baku are 100 times more
important than relations with Yerevan. Armenia should understand
this and behave accordingly because we have no choice. Georgia and
Azerbaijan are in a similar position today.

"Many people probably remember that the foreign minister of Nagornyy
Karabakh who spoke at an international meeting in Vladikavkaz
(which I attended too) made the kind of anti-Georgian statements
that even Bagapsh and Kokoyty have hardly ever made. He publicly
said that he hoped that a day would come when Tskhinvali and Sukhumi
would gain completely independence from Tbilisi and its imperialist
rule. Yerevan’s representative attended the meeting too but he did
not protest and even applauded him. This is the reality. It would
therefore be unwise for Georgia to confront Azerbaijan in order to
preserve good relations with Armenia. People in Baku have already
suggested that Georgians are ungrateful as Azerbaijan has aided them
by supplying oil, has and so on.

"It is true that Azerbaijan can afford to buy UAVs on its own
but extra aid can do no harm. Azerbaijan is trying to gain as many
allies as possible. Georgia is not a second-rate state in this region
and hence Baku considers Tbilisi’s stance on any issue to be very
important. Armenia needs to understand this. Yerevan is concerned
with its own interests and is trying to secure railway connection
with its strategic ally – Russia. God forbid an armed conflict starts
between Baku and Yerevan, the Armenians will use the railway that
they are trying so hard to restore to receive military supplies",
Soso Tsintsadze said.

"Unfortunately, Azerbaijan and Armenia are not the same kind of
allies for Georgia. It is understandable that Georgia is trying to
maintain friendly relations with its neighbours. However, relations
with Azerbaijan are a lot more important than relations with Armenia
as far as the question of territorial integrity is concerned," the
political analyst concluded.