WHO IS SERZH SARGSYAN’S BIGGEST OPPONENT?

Lilit Avagyan

168 Zham, Armenia
July 1 2008

The situation in Armenia continues to be characterized as a crisis. If
I am not mistaken, you also share the same view.

[Richard Kirakosyan] I think that the crisis is just beginning
after the [February presidential] election. The reason is that the
authorities have not given answers to the main questions. This crisis
is not only about [President] Serzh Sargsyan or [former president,
currently the opposition leader] Levon Ter-Petrosyan. I can say
that Sargsyan’s biggest opponent is Robert Kocharyan, [Sargsyan’s
immediate predecessor in office]. Sargsyan is under immense pressure
from international bodies, the Armenian public and Robert Kocharyan
with his team. Sargsyan has another opponent – time. He is expected
to carry out reforms in a short period of time. It is very interesting
to follow these processes.

[Correspondent] It may be interesting but the political crisis also
affects the public’s mood and the effectiveness of the government
agencies as well as the private sector. People are in a strange
psychological state. They don’t understand whether Sargsyan has come
or Kocharyan has left or Ter-Petrosyan is coming back.

[Kirakosyan] I think that Sargysan’s positions are getting stronger
every day in the Sargsyan-Kocharyan struggle, and Kocharyan’s positions
are getting weaker. Ter-Petrosyan’s positions as the opposition leader
are strong too.

[Passage omitted: Kirakosyan says Kocharyan has only five or six
months to maintain his power.]

[Correspondent] So you think Sargsyan can keep his grip on power? There
are two opinions: the first one is that he won’t be able to implement
the reforms he has promised, and, therefore, his rule will not last
long, resulting in an fresh election. And the second opinion is that
Sargsyan is trying to weaken Kocharyan’s positions because of the
international pressure to ease the tough and biased stance towards
the opposition, and this would allow him to stay in power.

[Kirakosyan] Let’s be frank. I believe that [former] President
Kocharyan’s time is over. I consider fresh presidential election
technically impossible. This situation indicates that the Armenian
people are not the same. The ruling political forces and the public
alike have realized that it is impossible to return to the status
quo that existed before 1 March. I believe this government would
succeed if the reforms are not political but economic. I expect a
more dangerous crisis in Armenia – an economic crisis. The storm of
hiking food and fuel prices is moving towards Armenia. I think the
leadership should overcome this crisis. From an impartial standpoint,
the political disagreement in society is not due to Ter-Petrosyan or
Sargsyan but it is due to the polarization that exists in Armenia. Look
at the big difference between the living standards of the oligarchs
and the average Armenian.

[Passage omitted: Kirakosyan says that while Kocharyan bears
responsibility for the clashes of 1 March, Sargsyan too had his part
of guilt.]

[Correspondent] The authorities have committed to comply with the
PACE resolution provisions but people have the right to think that
the authorities are not showing good will because those steps are
taken under an outside pressure. Don’t you think that the authorities
have crossed the Rubicon even if they ease the law on assemblies and
release the political prisoners, and it would be hard, if possible,
to regain the trust?

[Kirakosyan] The key meaning of the demands that the international
bodies put forward is not to punish Armenia but help it. When they
speak of political dialogue, to me, it is not the dialogue that matters
but political debates. It was very bad in Armenia in the past 10 years:
there was a leader whose decisions were covert, wrong and shameful. It
was impossible to maintain this model.

[Passage omitted: Kirakosyan says that despite all the turmoil,
Armenia remains the most stable country in the South Caucasus.]

[Correspondent] The Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly gave
some more time to Armenia to fulfil the Resolution 1609. It looks
unlikely that the authorities will fulfil them completely, especially
[the requirements about] the release of all political prisoners. Do
you think that sanctions could be imposed on Armenia to hurt its
political and economic elite?

[Kirakosyan] The threat of sanctions is real. But the approaches of
the USA and the OSCE are special towards countries that have found
themselves in such a difficult situation. It should not be forgotten
that Armenia gives more stability than neighbouring Azerbaijan does
with its oil. If Armenia is viewed outside of the context that exists
in the region, you can say that Armenia is a dangerous country,
but in the context of such geopolitical developments, the powerful
countries should help Armenia and not punish it.