ISRAEL MAY SEEK REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN "THROUGH OTHER MEANS

Palestinian Ma’an News Agency
July 8 2008

[Commentary by Nasir al-Lahham, editor in chief of the Ma’an News
Agency: "Israel May Seek Regime Change in Iran Through Other Means"]

Israeli reporters and military analysts hastened this week to draw
their own scenarios about a military confrontation between Israel
and Iran in the future. They did not hesitate to reach the conclusion
that Israeli military force would "crush" the Iranian forces without
any danger to the small but devastating Israel. Israeli Channel
10 broadcast a comparison recently between the Iranian and the
Israeli armies showing that Israel would be able to strike Iran with
devastating effect.

On the other hand, Iran’s "Shihab" missiles would have no more
effect on Israeli targets than Saddam Hussein’s famously ineffective
Russian-made Scud missiles. Despite Israeli leaders’ concerns about
Iran’s nuclear programme, analysts downplayed the power that Middle
East state. Some even expect the Iranian regime to shift from its
Islamic government to become an ally of Israel, as was the case during
the reign of the Shah, before the Islamic revolution. Consequently,
Israeli experts do not recommend that Israel destroy Iran as the US
destroyed Iraq. They, instead recommend that Israel seek to convert
the Iranian regime to something similar to the Turkish regime which
does not antagonize Israel. They believe Iran could be neutralized
because, like Turkey, it is Islamic but not Arab.

Another route Israel and the US could pursue is to assassinate
the Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad rather, than invade and
occupy all of Iran. Full scale invasion would risk destabilizing the
entire region; Iran after all borders Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Turkmenistan, Armenia, Turkey, Iraq and the Persian Gulf. In addition,
a number of other recent developments point to Israeli manoeuvring
vis a vis Iran:

-Israel accepted the prisoners swap with Hezbollah in order to ease
tension on its northern front and save its efforts for the Iranian
front.

– Israel started negotiations with Syria on condition that no
resolution be reached regarding the Golan Heights. For military
reasons, Israel cannot withdraw from the Golan Heights. Syria was drawn
into these phony talks in order to avoid tension with the United Sates.

-From a strategic point of view, Israel is trying to show the world
that it is involved in irresolvable crises and so the Palestinian
[National] Authority and the West should help Israel face these
problems. However, Israel has determined once and for all to avoid
establishment of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River, and
at the same time try to gradually normalize relations with the Arabs
and restructure the regimes in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan
to guarantee the existence of Israel for 60 more years.