Kavkaz.memo.ru , RUSSIA
July 9 2008

Surveys point to increased trust in NATO in Armenia

by Lilit Hovhanissyan – Kavkazskiy Uzel website

The questionnaires of national surveys conducted in Armenia in the
recent years constantly include questions regarding the attitude
towards NATO.

In order to find out the dynamics of the changes in the public mood
over this issue, the Kavkazskiy Uzel correspondent decided to turn to
the previously published results of the polls that are carried out
regularly by the Armenian Sociology Association/ASA (president
G. Poghosyan) and the Armenian Centre for National and Strategic
Studies (ACNIS).

The ASA polls were funded by the USAID. Those studies were prepared,
coordinated and analysed by the Baltic Surveys/The Gallup
Organization.

In order to find out the dynamics of the changes in the public mood
the results of three national surveys held in 2006 (May, August,
November) and four surveys held in 2007 (March, July, October,
December) were studied; 1,200 respondents aged 18 years and over were
interviewed in all regions of Armenia, the margin of error does not
exceed 3 per cent.

The results of the three national surveys conducted in 2006 indicate
that in average, 47.7 per cent of the respondents expressed a positive
attitude towards NATO as an international institution; 41 per cent had
a negative attitude; and 11.3 per cent had no opinion.

According to the results of the survey held in the first half of 2007
(March, July), the confidence rate in NATO as an international
institution had grown, making 52 per cent; with 35 per cent having a
negative attitude, and 13 per cent having no opinion. In the second
half of 2007 (the surveys were conducted in October and December), 55
per cent had a positive opinion towards NATO; 36.5 per cent had a
negative opinion, and 8.5 per cent had no opinion.

Thus, over a two-year period, a stable trend of a growth in confidence
in NATO is observed. Accordingly, the percentage of the respondents
with a negative opinion or no opinion has reduced.

A different picture is seen when a direct question "Should Armenian
join NATO?" is asked.

In 2006, only 8.7 per cent said "definitely yes", and 31 per cent
"probably yes", while 10.5 per cent said "definitely no", 30 per cent
said " probably no", and 16.5 had no opinion.

The two national surveys conducted in the first half of 2007 revealed
the following picture: "definitely yes" 11 per cent; "probably yes" 35
per cent; "definitely no" 13.5 per cent; "probably no" 28 per cent; no
opinion 12.5 per cent.

A non-significant growth in staunch supporters of joining NATO is
observed along with a slight decrease in the number of moderate
opponents and a stable number of staunch opponents.

Nevertheless, if the abovementioned data is compared with the surveys
of previous years, a trend of growth in the number of the supporters
of joining NATO is quite obvious. A survey conducted among 1,500 by
ACNIS in July 2005 seems to be the most reliable one among all the
others conducted previously. To the same question "Should Armenia join
NATO?" 34.7 per cent said yes; 33.9 per cent said no; 31.4 per cent
had no answer. When the same question was asked to 40 experts three
years ago, 52.2 per cent said yes, 30 per cent said no; 17.5 per cent
had no answer.

The supporters of joining NATO have interesting motives: NATO is the
most reliable security system – 43.3 per cent; Armenia cannot joint
the European Union without first joining NATO – 17.8 per cent; it is
reasonable for all three countries of the region to be in the same
security system – 33.9 per cent; other answers – 0.8 per cent; did not
know – 4.2 per cent.

The motives of the experts who supported the idea of joining NATO is a
little different: NATO is the most reliable security system – 31.8 per
cent; Armenia cannot joint the European Union without first joining
NATO – 4.5 per cent; it is reasonable for all three countries of the
region to be in the same security system – 63.7 per cent.

The motives of the opponents of Armenia’s joining NATO are as follows:
since Armenia’s problems with Turkey, a NATO member, have not been
settled – 24.9 per cent; Armenia should stay a member of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization member and rely on Russia in
terms of its security – 52.9 per cent; Armenia is not welcome in NATO
and should not think about it – 21.4 per cent; other answers – 0.2 per
cent; did not know – 0.6 per cent.

The motives of the experts who oppose joining NATO are also different
from the regular people: since Armenia’s problems with Turkey, a NATO
member, have not been settled – 22.2 per cent; Armenia should stay a
member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization member and rely
on Russia in terms of its security – 0 per cent; Armenia is not
welcome in NATO and should not think about it – 77.8 per cent.

Overall, it can be said that the number of those in favour of Armenia
joining NATO (the total number of staunch supporters and moderate
supporters) has grown from about 33-34 per cent to 45-46 per cent over
the past three years.

Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandyan has said that Armenia is
not discussing the issue of joining NATO but plans to further
cooperate with it. Armenia wants to develop its relations with NATO
but is not going to join it, Armenian former President Robert
Kocharyan said in July 2007. He said that joining NATO "would not
raise the security" of the country and will spoil its relations with
the neighbours.