SEVERE STRUGGLE HAS STARTED IN THE REGION FOR THE POSITION OF REGIONAL POWER-HOLDER
PanARMENIAN.Net
22.07.2008 GMT+04:00
Iran does not look around in her foreign policy, like Turkey, and
contributes to regulation of conflicts and controversial issues in
the region.
In all probability severe struggle has begun in the region for
the position of regional power-holder. Candidates are two – Iran
and Turkey. Stakes are high – exclusion of the USA and Russia
from the region and establishment of "personal order" the way
Iran or Turkey picture it. Iran has a more favourable position
in the competition. First, Tehran has oil and gas, which Turkey
lacks. Moreover, according to explored and confirmed data Iran has
the forth standing in the world.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ In political aspect Iran’s position is more
favourable than that of Turkey. There exists only the problem dreamed
up by Baku – the problem of South Azerbaijan, the Iranian province
on the Azerbaijani border. There is also the nuclear program that
challenges the USA and the EC. However, Iran does not face any
problems with her neighbouring states. And that is true – Iran does
not look around in her foreign policy, like Turkey, and contributes
to regulation of conflicts and controversial issues in the region.
During a phone conversation between Manouchehr Mottaki and RA FM Edward
Nalbandian, the Iranian Foreign Minister welcomed the positive shifts
in Armenian-Turkish relations. In his words, as a powerful and stable
country in the region Iran can assist reconciliation between the two
neighbors – Turkey and Armenia. The conversation between Mottaki and
Nalbandian shows that serious developments in the Armenian-Turkish
relations are on the agenda. Mottaki also expressed hope that
improvements of relations between the two countries would contribute
to the establishment of peace and harmony in the region. At the end
the Iranian FM invited his Armenian counterpart to a conference on
Non-Alignment Movement due in Tehran, late July, and confirmed his
earlier invitation to visit Iran in current September.
Meanwhile, according to Iranian expert Hatam Ghaderi, Iran’s
willingness to mediate in Armenian-Turkish reconciliation is a
unique tool to exert pressure on Official Ankara and is a response
to Turkey’s mediation between Syria (Iran’s ally) and Israel (Iran’s
opponent) . "Using the Armenian factor Iran is willing to put pressure
on Turkey. In fact, Turkey was the first to toy with Iran and ‘put
its cards on the table’ against this country. And now, in response,
Official Teheran is eager to put pressure on Turkey, using Armenia
as its trump-card," Ghaderi said.
In his turn, Turkish political analyst Ufug Coshgun considers that
Iran issued statements on her willingness to serve as a mediator
between Turkey and Armenia as an alternative to Turkey’s mediation
between Syria and Israel. According to Coshgun, there is a chance of
Iran’s mediation to prove effective but it is not something you can
be fully certain about.
However, it should be noted that Turkey’s mediation in establishing
negotiations between Syria and Israel has produced no results. In
the words of Prime-Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert the issue can
be reconsidered only in January 2009 with a new president in the
USA. The US European lobby might hold back the initiative until it has
a guarantee of Israel’s security, whereas Turkey is unable to provide
such a guarantee since the Iranian President keeps threatening Israel
with enviable drive.
However, Iran’s success in developing Armenian-Turkish relations is
not definite. In both cases the efforts of mediators will fail if the
parties are unwilling to come to an agreement. And it is exactly what
the parties now lack.