A NEW RAILWAY LINE AND SOME REGIONAL REALITIES

Turkish Daily News
July 25 2008
Turkey

Given the obstacles it is sometimes hard to be optimistic about
the prospects of improved ties between Turkey and Armenia. But life
becomes much more difficult if one does not retain some optimism

Semih Ä°DÄ°Z

The ground breaking ceremony yesterday for the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars
railway, attended by the presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia,
is yet another bitter reminder for Armenia of its growing regional
isolation, and the economic consequences this is having for the country
and its people. Try hard as they may, members of the Armenian diaspora
in the United States, as well as their supporters in the U.S. Congress,
have been unable to prevent this project going ahead, just as they
were unable to prevent the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline
project, which is currently up and working. Attempts at preventing
such projects demonstrate a lack of understanding, of course, of
how things work in this part of the world, and who is exactly in a
position to stop such major initiatives.

Washington’s role: Washington, on the other hand, is the last capital
that would do this, given the growing stake it has in Azerbaijan
and Georgia, apart from its large vested interest in Turkey, and the
delicate regional balances it cannot afford to overlook. Ironically
Washington’s hand in Armenia was even further weakened after the
diaspora in the United States, with support from within Congress,
prevented for a long time the appointment of an ambassador to Yerevan,
because ambassadorial candidates refused to pronounce the "G-word,"
in line with the government’s policy. This was a classic example of
the diaspora harming the interests of Armenia and the United States
since the lack of an American ambassador in Yerevan was hardly of
any consequence to Turkey, but had diplomatic consequences for those
two countries. The same diaspora is relying now on presidential
candidate Barack Obama in the belief that he will be the one to
browbeat Turkey into a position that changes all of this to the
advantage of Armenia. Some say Obama will go that way, regardless of
the cost to Washington. Others argue that this is unlikely to happen
given the same regional realities that will prevail if Mr. Obama is
elected president, and the fact that he will not be in a position to
alter these, but only manage them as best he can in order to serve
the interest of his country, and not that of the Armenian diaspora in
his country. This we will have to wait and see. All that can be said
under normal circumstances is that the only option open to Washington
is to try and bring about a rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia,
and between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and this is what its policy is
based on at the present time.

The French example: Then there is the French example, after the
parliament in that country tried to criminalize the denial of the
Armenian genocide. That case showed that such efforts come at a cost,
not just to relations with Turkey, but also to relations between
Armenia and Turkey. Many sober-minded analysts believe that Washington
under any president will maintain its current policy and shy away from
steps that will make a rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey harder,
and not easier. There are indications that Armenia’s new president
Sergh Sarkissian, although a hardliner himself until recently,
is coming around to this realization also, and is therefore seeking
means of opening channels of dialogue with Turkey. His namesake Prime
Minister Tigran Sarkissian is said to be pursuing a similar line,
and was reported by the Arminfo news agency as telling a young group
of diaspora Armenians recently that they as Armenians cannot go on
indefinitely with a policy of enmity toward neighbors. But this new
approach in Yerevan has angered not just diaspora Armenians in the
United States, but also hard-line ultra-nationalists within Armenia,
including former president, Robert Kocharian. Needless to say both
Sarkissian’s are accused of toying with treason, and of preparing to
sell out on the Armenian cause. This negativity in Armenia and among
members of the diaspora is also said to be prompting second thoughts
in the Presidency in Ankara on the question of whether President Gul
should attend the Turkey-Armenia football match in Yerevan in early
September after being invited by President Sarkissian. But Ankara has
also been giving concrete signs that every positive step by Armenia
will be reciprocated. This is why many believe Gul should go to Yerevan
regardless of what kind of a rude welcoming the ultranationalists
there, led by the Dashnaks, may have planned for him.

Serious obstacles: There are many serious obstacles to overcome
in relations between Armenia and Turkey before ties are fully
normalized. No one can afford to be naïve on this score. But the
simple fact is that nothing will happen unless the leaders of the two
countries decide to take bold steps that may not please all of their
citizens, and particularly the ultra-nationalists. Then there is of
course the Karabakh problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan that has to
be solved if true cooperation in the southern Caucasus to everyone’s
advantage is to start. This will also require brave steps on the part
of the two countries. Given these obstacles it is sometimes hard to
be optimistic about the prospects of improved ties between Turkey and
Armenia. But life becomes much more difficult if one does not retain
some optimism at all times, even in the face of difficult odds.

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