IRANIAN MEDIATION: FRIEND OR FOE?

Turkish Daily News
July 26 2008

While Turkey has intensified its mediation efforts in the Middle East,
Iran has volunteered to take on a similar challenge to break the ice
between Ankara and Yerevan, according to reports in the Armenian and
Iranian press.

The subject arose when Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki made
a telephone call to his Armenian counterpart, Edward Nalbandian, during
a visit to Turkey last week. Mottaki expressed hope about the recent
exchange of positive messages between Yerevan and Ankara, according to
the Islamic Republic News, or IRNA, news agency. "Political observers
believe that Iran, as a powerful and stable country in the region,
can bring about reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia," says a
report by IRNA.

Armenian news agency Mediamax also reported that during the phone
conversation Mottaki informed Nalbandian that Iran was ready to
mediate between the two countries.

"The possibility of such an initiative by Iran is highly optimistic,"
Arif Keskin, a specialist on Iran at the Eurasian Strategic Research
Center, or ASAM, told the Turkish Daily News. Explaining that
a possible mediation would be a multi-dimensional gain for Iran,
Keskin said this is what has likely driven the country to make such an
attempt. "Iran is the sole country rescuing Armenia from its isolation
within the region. Armenia is currently under geopolitical siege,
surrounded by countries like Turkey and Azerbaijan with whom it has
long-standing problems."

"For Iran, Armenia has major strategic importance as well," he
said. "Iran wants to establish good relations with non-Turkish
elements in the region, especially with Armenia. Its Azeri minority is
a major concern. Therefore to alienate Turkey from Azerbaijan through
an Armenian-Turkish reconciliation would be to its benefit," he said.

"Iran could not solve the problems between Turkey and Armenia. Moreover
it is not clear how sincere Ankara is for a rapprochement with
Yerevan. The establishment in Turkey do not want any change in
bilateral relations," he said. "Previous mediation efforts by Iran
between Azerbaijan and Armenia resulted in Baku’s losing territory. It
is disputable how impartial Iran can be, or to whose advantage it
would work. It is unlikely that it would defend the Turkish thesis
against Armenia," he said.

"Iran wants to give the message to the West that it can act within
their parameters, that it is a stability factor in the region,
not vice versa," said Keskin. He said, however, that the initiative
raises many questions in terms of Turkey. "I do not think that it
was Ankara who asked for such a move from Iran. Turkey is disturbed
by the depth of Iran-Armenia relations. Therefore it is definitely
Iran’s own initiative."

According to Keskin, the Turkish government has to explain itself
publicly in terms of its recent relations with Iran. "It is not
just this mediation effort. Let’s take (Iranian President Mahmoud)
Ahmedinejad’s planned visit for example. What could Turkey gain from
the visit of such a radical figure? Sure AKP (Justice and Development
Party) would have gains in domestic terms. But it is a very risky
visit otherwise," he added.