A ‘HOT AUTUMN’ AHEAD IN CAUCASUS POLICY FOR ANKARA

Today’s Zaman
July 30 2008
Turkey

A "hot autumn" will descend on the Turkish capital this year as it
faces a challenging schedule concerning its policies regarding its
two Caucasian neighbors — policies which it will have to handle
with delicacy.

President Abdullah Gul is to participate in the ninth summit of
the heads of state of Turkic-speaking countries, to be held in Baku
on Sept. 5. In addition to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the
summit’s host, presidents o f Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan are also expected to participate. Gul has an official
invitation to visit Turkey’s estranged neighbor Armenia the day after
the summit in Baku concludes.

Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan invited Gul to a World Cup qualifying
match between the national soccer teams of the two countries which
will be played in Yerevan on Sept. 6 and called for dialogue to help
normalize ties, saying this will be mutually beneficial.

Both diplomats at the Foreign Ministry and officials close to
the Cankaya Presidential Palace are tight-lipped on whether Gul
will honor Sarksyan’s invitation, which has led to the definition
of the current state of affairs in international media as "soccer
diplomacy." Analysts say Ankara will probably announce its decision
on the matter at the latest possible moment while continuing its
reticence as long as possible.

Sources close to Gul’s office say, however, that "Cankaya Palace’s
assessment of the invitation is positive."

Turkey severed its ties and closed its border with Armenia in 1993
in protest of Armenian occupation of the Azerbaijani territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Gul recently reiterated emphasis on respect for
territorial integrity, and it has been widely considered a sign that
Turkey is not planning to reverse its policy on ties with Armenia
any time soon unless Yerevan agrees to take a step back in the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, despite a recent thaw in relations.

"Normalization of bilateral relations with Yerevan will not only be
helpful for Armenia, but will also be helpful for Turkey," a senior
Turkish diplomat recently told Today’s Zaman. "Normalization is a need
not only for our landlocked neighbor in order to rid itself of its
isolated situation under difficult economic conditions. Normalization
is a need for us as well," the same diplomat, speaking on condition
of anonymity, said.

The Azerbaijani capital is, meanwhile, waiting for Gul’s final
decision despite assurances given by Turkey that Ankara’s policy
towards Yerevan has not changed.

"One should not forget that we are not Armenia’s enemies despite the
absence of diplomatic recognition. Almost 70,000 Armenian citizens
are currently earning their livelihood in Turkey," another diplomat
also noted.