RUSSIA INTERESTED IN RESUMING WAR IN KARABAKH – AZERI ANALYST
Zerkalo
August 1 2008
Azerbaijan
A renowned Azerbaijani political analyst has said that Russia is
interested in resuming war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the
breakaway region of Nagornyy Karabakh. The reason is that Moscow is
losing its positions in the South Caucasus with NATO’s expansion and
the implementation of oil and gas projects, according to the former
advisor to the Azerbaijani president on foreign policy issues, Vafa
Quluzada, said. The following is an excerpt from C. Bayramova’s report
in Zerkalo newspaper headlined "Is it good for Russia if war starts
between Azerbaijan and Armenia?" and subheaded "Moscow is interested
in Baku starting first, national experts agree"; subheadings have
been inserted editorially:
Helicopters of the military air forces of Azerbaijan made sorties
over the contact line of the [Azerbaijani and Armenian] forces. The
Karabakh bureau of APA [Azeri Press news agency] said that about 12
helicopters flew from Fuzuli District towards Tartar and Goranboy
Districts. A source in the Ministry of Defence told the agency that
it did not have information about the flights. It should be noted
that very frequent reports have been made lately on the violation of
the cease-fire on the frontline. This is on the one hand.
Fears about resumed war
On the other, we can hear more fears, especially from the West,
about the resumption of military hostilities in the region of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as the military budgets of both
Azerbaijan and Armenian keep growing. The director of the European
programmes of the International Crisis Group, Sabina Freizer, warned
last year that a real threat for military operations was taking shape
in the region. A result would be a full scale war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan. Thus, Armenia and Azerbaijan are bracing themselves
for war, Freizer said then.
Her criticism of the international community, which she said is too
slow to react to what is going on, was also very interesting. "Is it
possible to stop war before it starts? We have such an opportunity in
Nagornyy Karabakh, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are making preparations
for war. There is a real chance to prevent this blast," she said,
expressing her fears.
Representatives from a number of other international entities also
expressed fears at different levels about the start of war later
on. The director of the Armenian Centre for Strategic Analysis
Spectrum, Gayane Novikova, has actually confirmed what Sabina Freizer
earlier said – "Azerbaijan is bracing itself for war with Armenia". The
difference was that according to her Azerbaijan will start war. We can
clearly see prejudice here because the Centre for Strategic Analysis
Spectrum is an Armenian organization.
[Passage omitted: more quotes on threats of resumption of war and
reported benefits of this war]
Russia’s provocation
But is the resumption of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia good for
any country, be it Russia or the USA, at a time when such issues as
Georgia’s admission to NATO for Russia and the stability and security
of energy projects being implemented in the region for the USA are
at stake?! Or are we looking at Azerbaijan’s initiative to start
war?! National experts are answering these questions.
Vafa Quluzada, a former advisor to the president and a political
analyst at present: "These are all provocations of Moscow. The start
of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia is good for Russia. It wants
to provoke us to war. Why? The matter is that US-Russian relations
are not having good times now. The reason is that NATO aspires to
re-conquer the South Caucasus region by admitting Georgia. Azerbaijan
is getting integrated into European and Euratlantic structures and
energy and transport communications important for the West go through
the territory of the country. So, Russia is totally losing.
"Losing control over the region would mean the end for it. That is why
it is trying to ‘remedy’ the situation. Russia can deal a blow to the
interests of the West by playing the card of war. Moscow understands
very well that in order to minimize these interests it needs to
‘destroy’ Azerbaijan or Georgia or both of them in the first place.
"Imagine the picture of resumption of war. Foreign oil companies will
immediately leave Azerbaijan, foreign banks will be closed in the
country and embassies will be evacuated. In this situation Russia
will act as a guarantor of peace and propose its own ‘services’
to stabilize the situation. After Azerbaijan’s defeat we will have
to sign for the Organization of Collective Security Treaty, as well
as for joint defence of air space, something that one of the Russian
generals insistently tried to ensure. Thus, Russia would win back in
this scenario.
"So, it is good for Russia that Azerbaijan attacks Armenia. However,
let us come down to earth and speak about real things. Whatever Russia
wishes, we will not attack Armenia first. Azerbaijan is well aware
of the fortification facilities Russia has installed in the occupied
territories. Definitely, we will not be able to overcome them since
they are very strong.
"What Azerbaijan is doing is just looking for a peaceful solution
to the conflict by means of NATO. That is all. Belligerent rhetoric
that our side sometimes expresses is designed for domestic use in
order to instil hopes into refugees and other citizens of the country
that Azerbaijan is ready to return its lands by all means. We have
never acted as an initiator of war openly. We are just saying that
our country is ready to resolve the conflict in a military way if
it is not settled in a peaceable manner. Note that this is a very
careful statement."
Moscow’s choice
Political analyst Rasim Musabayov: "It is quite normal that our
helicopters fly over the contact line. I do not think that we need
to ask anybody for permission for our helicopters to fly over our own
territories. I also believe that this incident is in no way a proof to
Azerbaijan’s preparations for military operations. Moreover, I do not
expect the start of military operations from the Azerbaijani side soon.
As for the question if the start of military hostilities in the region
of the Karabakh conflict is good for anybody, I think that it is good
for nobody for the time being. But I do not rule out the possibility
of provocation by Russia if the settlement of the conflict remains
at the same frozen level and eventually Azerbaijan will have to be
admitted to NATO following Georgia as an alternative way out.
In essence, Moscow will have a choice: either to become reconciled to
NATO’s expansion to the Caucasus (something one can hardly believe
since only Georgia’s admission to NATO means full loss of overland
access to Russia’s outpost – Armenia) or resort to provoking the
parties to the conflict to war. As for the USA, it is not good for
that country at all to see the resumption of military operations. In
this sense, it even deters Georgia from demonstrating excessive force."