RUSSIAN ANALYST SEES CHANCES FOR FRESH GARABAGH WAR

AzerNews Weekly
Aug 6 2008
Azerbaijan

Fresh military action may erupt between Azerbaijan and Armenia over
the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh region, a Russian analyst has said.

"The resumption of hostilities is possible, although I don`t think
it would be a large-scale operation," said Mikhail Aleksandrov, who
heads the department on the Caucasus of the Institute for CIS States.

Aleksandrov claimed that Azerbaijan will try to take action of local
scale that is needed for President Ilham Aliyev to conduct his campaign
for the October election.

The analyst maintained that in the course of all-out military action,
Baku would not win and will have to retreat. He said President Aliyev
was striving to resolve the Garabagh problem, otherwise, he would be
blamed for failing to do enough to settle the long-standing dispute.

"But I believe that the conflict will not see a solution in the near
future. There will be no concessions of principle from the Armenian
authorities in this respect. The Garabagh conflict will retain the
status quo for a long time.

"Global processes propelled by the economic crisis that will possibly
bring about US withdrawal from Iraq and a NATO collapse are currently
under way in the world. All these changes will lead to a change in
the geo-political layout in the region," Aleksandrov said.

Aleksandrov said the West-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan export oil
pipeline was the only factor that could make Baku "think twice"
or divert it from launching military action.

"Let`s assume that the hostilities in Upper Garabagh have started. The
Armenian side has a full right to deal blows on communications
while acting in self-defense, and the West knows it all too well,"
Aleksandrov alleged.

Commenting on the statement, Azerbaijani former state adviser Vafa
Guluzada said Russia was looking to see things spinning out of control
in the Caucasus.

"I am referring to the Upper Garabagh [conflict] in Azerbaijan and
Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. Thus, a blow would be dealt
upon Western interests in the region and existing communication lines
would collapse. Clinging to Azerbaijan`s belligerent statements,
subversion would be staged, and in the long run, Azerbaijan would be
blamed. But I don`t think they will dare to do so."

The conflict between the two South Caucasus republics reared up
in the late 1980s due to Armenia`s territorial claims. Armenia has
been occupying over 20% of Azerbaijan`s internationally-recognized
territory since the early 1990s. Years of peace talks have brought
little tangible result. Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly warned
against Armenia`s policy of aggression, saying the country`s land
will be freed at any cost.

Guluzada said such statements as Aleksandrov`s were provocative. "The
allegations that President Aliyev will use the `Garabagh card`
during the election campaign are ridiculous, as the main thing the
Azerbaijani government needs ahead of the elections is stability."

As for the allegations on the United States` weakening position in
the region and the NATO collapse, the analyst said: "The process of
NATO`s strengthening is ongoing around the world. In the backdrop
of the USSR collapse and Russia`s faltering, the US is turning into
a hegemonic state, while Russia is losing its positions in Europe,
Asia, etc., in short, in regions the world over."