NEVERENDING TENSION IN CAUCASIA
by Habibe Kader

Journal of Turkish Weekly
d=2955
Aug 8 2008
Turkey

The tension between Russia and Georgia has rise again with the
glow of the clashes in South Ossetia, which is a separatist region
of Georgia. In Georgia’s separatist region South Ossetia’s capital
Tsinvali, after the clashes between Georgean soldiers and pro-Russian
separatist organisms on Friday, 6 people have died and at least 15
people have wounded. Hundreds of women and children have sheltered
to Russia because of the ongoing armed clashes. Reuters News Agency
declared that in the last three days, 5 hundreds people have checked
in to Russia’s North Ossetia region.

South Ossetia officials cited that till now 15 buses have moved and
the ones that want to go to Russia is over 200 thousands. Yuri Popov;
the head of the Russian delegation to a joint commission in South
Ossetia, said that; "Russia will not be just an onlooker about this
situation. If we are to think the worst scenario that could happen,
we should take into consideration that Russia will not let its citizens
get hurt."

After these situations, not only the regional actors but international
actors are also interested in this area.

Caucasia, that is mentioned frequently these times, is
geographically divided into North and South Caucasus by the Big
Caucasus Mountains. North Caucasus is formed by seven autonomous
regions which are provinces of the Russian Federation. These are;
the Republic of Adygea, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Kabardino-Balkar
Republic, the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, the Chechen Republic,
the Republic of Ingushetia and the Republic of Dagestan. In South
Caucasus there is the independent states; Azerbaijan, Armenia and
Georgia. These three independent states which have different languages,
religion and ethnic groups are characterized as a region because of
their existing geography.

The countries in South Caucasus are important for Russian Federation
in terms of some different reasons. Among these, the historical
reasons, the security factor, geopolitical location and economy are
coming first. To begin with the historical reasons, Caucasia has
been Ottoman, Iranian and Russian powers’ fighting area throughout
history. Russia, who has been willing to be in control in that
area since Tsarist Russia, wanted to grow in this geography with
the condition of being active in Caucasia, specially in the 19th
century. But since the area is mountainous, the weather is harsh
and the difference of the languages, religion and ethnic composition
among the people living there, made it quite hard for Russia to be
influential as wanted. Ottoman Empire’s ongoing quest for domination,
which have continued in its last years, have encountered a strong
resistance of Muslims. In the last days of Ottoman Empire, Georgia
has become Ottomans’ natural ally since the Georgians joined the
resistance. Although the regime has changed in 1917 in Russia, Russia’s
fundamental strategic aims, remained nearly the same. After the South
Caucasus countries declared their independences in 1992, the Russian
Federation, who did not want to lose its control, described this area
as its backyard and followed that policy. The Russian Federation’s
willing to be in control and to be active in the area is because of,
among other reasons, the fear of to fall out. The Russian Federation,
as a result of the Chechens’ willing to be independent and that the
Chechen war has caused great loses, believed that it has to be powerful
in Caucasia in order to protect its integrity. So, the guarantee of
the Russian Federation’s integrity was found in the success in the
South Caucasus. For that reason, the Russian Federation followed
a real harsh violence policy. While that policy of Russia made the
separatist areas in Georgia, Russia’s allies, on the other hand it
fueled Russian antagonism among the people of the area; making it
possible for the Western powers to be more active in this area.

Secondly, the security factor, as in other countries, is among the
fundamental subjects of the agenda of the Russian Federation. The
South Caucasus countries are really important in protecting the
south borders because of the Russian Federation. These borders are
also considered as the barriers that stop the growth of the Turkish,
Iranian and Western elements. Besides, having good relationships with
the mentioned region countries or leading their policies by implied
coercion broadens the Russian Federation’s zone of influence. In
other words, as an effective agent in South Caucasus, Russia has been
expanding its zone of influence over Caucasus Mountains. Moreover,
the agents that want to exclude the Russian Federation and to minimize
its effect in the area connote it like; to push the Russian Federation
to the back of the Caucasus Mountains.

Thirdly, from the geopolitical point of view, the South Caucasus
is the only territorial connection between Russia, Middle East,
Aegean Sea and Africa. To protect this connection and even to carry
it further is of vital importance for the Russian Federation. On the
other side, the Russian Federation, in order to head such important
countries like Turkey and Iran, wants to be effective in this area. So,
although the Caucasia countries declared their independence in 1991,
the Russian Federation is still considering Azerbaijan, Georgia and
Armenia whose population is relatively less, as its backyard with
the influence of their geopolitical location and energy factor.

The importance of South Caucasus in terms of energy is beyond
doubt, because of Russia’s will to control the energy sources and
routes. Besides, the area is on the transmission route of Caspian
energy sources to world markets and that what makes Russia interested
with this area.

To control the area, is not the only cause of the Russian Federation
that sticks out about South Caucasus. Besides this, Russia is trying to
forestall other powers to fill in its place, in times that its control
is weakened. At that point, the region countries’ attempt to open up
to the West and increase the collaborations with them is bearing the
result that Russia Federation’s efforts are inadequate. The rising
Western effect on Georgia and Azerbaijan, in particular, is perceived
by Moscow as it is surrounded by the Western powers.

Georgia is one of the important countries in South Caucasus due to the
security, geostrategic location and economy factors. Besides that,
the relations between the Russian Federation and Georgia, is highly
different from the relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia. When compared
with other South Caucasus countries, Georgia is the country that the
Russian Federation clashing the most. This situation can be explained
with a few reasons. First of all, Georgia is in a more strategic
position in Caucasus considering the other two countries. Especially
with the independence of Ukraine, the Russian Federation has lost most
of its Black Sea shores. On the other side, contrary to Azerbaijan and
Armenia, Georgia’s population is not homogeneous enough. Azerbaijan and
Armenia has exchanged populations while the Nagorno-Karabakh problem
was continuing, the Armenians in Azerbaijan settled down to Armenia
and the Azerbaijanis in Armenia settled down to Azerbaijan. When
compared to Azerbaijan and Armenia, Georgia’s not having a homogeneous
population simplifies the external interventions. In plain terms,
Georgia, while in difficulty of holding its internal stability by
not being able to control the separatist movements in its country,
it enables the separatist areas to be used as political tools by
external powers, especially by the Russian Federation.

The ongoing tension between Russia and Georgia since 1992 has moved
to a new dimension after the pro-Western government has came into the
power with the Rose Revolution. With this new situation, Russia left
its power over Georgia to U.S.A. The Russian Federation’s foreign
policy over Georgia have been more reactive since Georgia wanted
to join NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which was added
on to the pro-Western government’s accession to power. So that, as
a response to Georgia, whom has been conducting policies against,
the Russian Federation has evidently supported (and still supporting)
the separatist regions in Georgia. The reply of Georgia to Russia’s
reactive and reflexive foreign policy is to follow a U.S.A sided
foreign policy and making strong expressions with the power that it
gained from the relations with U.S.A.

As a result, the Russian Federation’s aims and policies over
Caucasia have changed just a little from the Tsarist Russia time
to the Soviet Union time and the Russian Federation is moving
in the same direction after the Cold War. Although the region
countries have gained their independences, the Russian Federation,
as following these ongoing policies for hundreds of years, does not
want to narrow its influence zone and still not forgetting this area
even when losing power. Nay, the Russian Federation is calling that
area as its ‘backyard’. One of the most important reasons for this
is that the integrity of the Russian Federation is attached with
the success in the South Caucasus. Besides, the conflict between
Russia and Georgia is looming large in the Caucasus area, which also
attracts the attention of the global actors besides regional actors
thanks to its geostrategic location and in particular, in South
Caucasus that is formed by three independent countries. Azerbaijan,
by following balance of power with big powers and under the Russian
rule; Armenia, whom is nearly isolated in terms of its relations
with its neighbors, forms the Russian Federation’s relations with
the neighboring countries. The determinant in the relations with
Georgia is, Russia’s apparent loss of power in the region after the
pro-Western government has came into power. Georgia, in particularly,
sticking out with its problems with the separatist regions, is in an
open position to external interventions because of its, not homogeneous
population. The tension between the Russian Federation and Georgia
is not likely to lessen. Forasmuch as, the parties are sticking out
with their harsh and reflexive reactions and as a result of these
reactions, the problems are not solved but frozen. For this reason,
coming up of these problems as they did till now, should be expected.