PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR EU RISES AFTER CLOSURE CASE

Today’s Zaman
Aug 9 2008
Turkey

A clear majority of society supports Turkey’s bid to join the European
Union, a new opinion poll has found. Public support for Turkey’s EU
membership rose to 66.2 percent in this month, up from 55 percent in
June of last year, according to a survey conducted earlier this week.

The Social and Political Situation in Turkey survey, conducted by
the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic & Social Research Center on
Aug. 4-5, surveyed 1,226 people across various provinces in Turkey to
find out people’s views on a closure case against the ruling Justice
and Development Party (AK Party), which concluded last month, and on
an ongoing trial of suspected members of the terrorist organization
Ergenekon, whose members are facing various charges over trying to
topple the government. Ergenekon is suspected of a number of political
murders, assassinations, attacks and other public incidents with
the ultimate aim of creating disorder so as to trigger a military
intervention against the government. The survey also sought to measure
the pulse of the people on everyday politics and their opinions on
the future course of the country.

In response to a question on whether they would vote for or against
Turkey’s EU membership if there were a referendum today, 66.2 percent
said they would vote ‘Yes,’ while only 28 percent said they would vote
against. In June of 2007 38.3 percent of those polled were against
EU membership while 55.5 percent supported it.

The poll supports the notion that the general tendency of the
Turkish public is to increase support for EU membership in the face
of processes perceived to be anti-democratic. The increase follows
the failed attempt of a state prosecutor to close the ruling AK Party.

The Constitutional Court announced on July 30 that it would not
close the AK Party, noting, however, that the party was guilty of
anti-secular activities, but that the activities weren’t serious
enough to warrant closure. The court ruled instead to impose financial
sanctions on the party.

A state prosecutor in March had filed the case for closure of the AK
Party, calling also for a ban on 71 of its high-level officials from
belonging to a political party for five years.

In response to how they saw the ruling of the Constitutional Court,
27.6 percent of those polled said they were not pleased with the
decision while 69.7 percent said they were happy with it. In response
to a question on whether they thought the AK Party indeed threatens
secularism in Turkey, 35 percent said yes while 60 percent said
no. However, an overwhelming majority of 73.4 percent said the AK
Party should change its policies in the future to avoid a similar
situation, while only 22.6 percent said the party should stick to
its past policies.

Some critics have claimed that the Ergenekon investigation is the
government’s response to the closure case, since all of those detained
are staunch secularists known for their criticism of the AK Party. In
response to a question on whether they saw a link between the closure
case and the Ergenekon investigation, 54.6 percent of those polled
said no while 36.3 percent said they believed there was a link.

Ergenekon is political

Of the respondents, 16.2 percent said they agreed with the statement
"Ergenekon is a patriotic organization established to protect Turkey’s
regime," while 71.4 said they did not agree. However, 43.3 percent said
they agreed with the statement that "Ergenekon is an organization
aiming to stage a coup to forcibly overthrow the government,"
while 45.5 percent said they disagreed. In regards to the statement
"Ergenekon is a terrorist organization," 48.7 percent said they did
not agree while 40.5 percent agreed. Asked whether they agreed with
the statement "Ergenekon is a crime organization aiming to acquire
special interests," 55 percent agreed while 35.1 percent said they
did not agree. A not insignificant 41.8 percent agreed that "There
is no such thing as Ergenekon and the investigation is a politically
motivated process," while 45.5 percent said they disagreed. The
rate of those who had no opinion on this statement was 12.6 percent,
higher than in the case of any of the rest of the statements about
Ergenekon. In response to what they thought of the case without asking
if they believed that Ergenekon really existed, 54 percent said they
believed the case was political, while 32.9 percent said they saw it
as a legal case. Here too, 12.8 percent said they had no opinion.

In response to the question "Are you satisfied with the Ergenekon
indictment?" 59 percent said no, while 22 percent said yes. Eighteen
percent said they had no idea. The 2,455 page indictment, made public
last month, indicates that Ergenekon was behind a series of political
assassinations over the past two decades. The group is also suspected
of being behind the murder of Hrant Dink, a Turkish-Armenian journalist
killed by a teenager in 2007. Eighty-six suspects, 47 of whom are
currently under arrest, are accused of having suspicious links to the
gang. Suspects will start appearing before the court on Oct. 20 and
will face accusations that include "membership in an armed terrorist
group," "attempting to bring down the government," "inciting people
to rebel against the Republic of Turkey" and other similar crimes.

When asked their opinions about the possible outcome of the case,
a majority were pessimistic, with 53 percent saying they agreed with
the statement that the prosecutor’s claims will not be investigated and
no effective results will come out of the trial. However, 35.2 percent
said they agreed that the case will be the end to illegal formations
within the state and that it will enhance democracy in the end.

CHP support for Ergenekon suspects questioned

An overwhelming majority, 71.2 percent, said they thought the attitude
of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which has
accused the prosecution of conducting the operation in retaliation
for the closure case against the AK Party, was wrong. Only 19 percent
of the respondents said they agreed with the CHP, while nearly 10
percent said they did not have an opinion.

Pessimism about Turkey’s future

However, optimism about Turkey’s future was not high. In response
to the question "In which direction overall do you think Turkey is
headed?" 37.2 percent said Turkey will change for the better, while
58.2 percent said for the worse. The figures, however, mark a slight
improvement from those in June, when 28.6 percent had expressed hope
that things in Turkey would get better in the future and 66 percent
had said they believed things would get worse.

In response to a question on how the respondent would rate his or
her sense of trust on a scale of 1 to 10 for various individuals
and state agencies, the highest trust rating went to the military
(8.7), followed by the police (7.7) , President Abdullah Gul (7.1),
the judiciary (6.9), the Constitutional Court (6.7), Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan (6.4), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader
Devlet Bahceli (4.0) and finally CHP leader Deniz Baykal (3.1).

Asked who they would vote for if there was an election today,
42 percent of respondents said they would vote for the AK Party,
followed by the CHP (13.9 percent), the MHP (8.4 percent) and the DTP
(1.8 percent). Of the remaining respondents, 12.5 percent said they
were undecided, while 7.2 percent said they would simply vote a blank
ballot; 3.8 percent said they wouldn’t go to the ballot box at all,
while 5.4 percent said they had no opinion.

The poll was conducted Aug. 4-5 by telephone among a random national
sampling of 1,226 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The
margin of error for the full poll is 2.5 percentage points, at a 95
percent confidence level.