Sunday’s Zaman, Turkey
Aug 10 2008

Could South Ossetia become Kosovo?

by
SAVAÅ? GENÃ?*

One of the legacies of the Soviet Union is ethnic and border conflicts
it left as it collapsed. The eagerness of the US and Russia to expand
their spheres of influences is behind clashes between South Ossetia
and Georgia as well their pursuit of independence.

Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power in Georgia with the promise of
preventing ethnic problems and separatist movements after the
country’s Rose Revolution, tried to form an alternative power focus
against separatist movements in South Ossetia after successfully
resolving problems in Georgia’s Ajaria region. The Tbilisi government,
led by a Saakashvili concerned with the probable prevention of his
plans by Moscow and uneasy with the latter’s influence in the region,
arrested several Russian soldiers who were serving in the Russian
peacekeeping force that was part of a multinational force stationed in
the country on the grounds that they did not possess proper visas. He
further announced that these arrested Russian troops would be deported
from South Ossetia following a parliamentary decision. The Saakashvili
administration, which sought to create a new peacekeeping force free
of any Russian contribution, announced that it wanted to station a new
peacekeeping force operating under UN command in the region. The
acceptance of this request could be viewed as the recognition of
Russian domination of Georgia. As is known, South Ossetia, which
declared unilateral independence from Georgia in 1990, was seized by
Georgian troops for the second time yesterday. Following an attack by
Georgian forces on South Ossetia after this decision in January 1991,
bloody clashes took place between the parties. Some 1,000 died in the
conflict and 100,000 people were forced to leave their homes.

The leaders, who realized that the issue will not be resolved through
conflict, decided to sign a cease-fire agreement in July 1992 and form
a joint peacekeeping force with the participation of South Ossetians,
North Ossetians, Georgians and Russians. In June 2002 the Georgian
president announced a new Conciliation Plan with Ossetia and stressed
that they would focus on economic projects for the improvement of the
region. He made several further attempts to restore Georgian influence
in the region and ensure Georgian territorial integrity.

South Ossetians declared independence from Russia two times: after a
referendum held in 1993 and another held in 2001. General elections
were held in 2006 and the South Ossetian people overwhelmingly
supported independence from Georgia with a clear majority of 99
percent of the vote. In the elections, Eduard Kokoity won the
presidency. All these elections and referendums showed that the South
Ossetians wanted independence, also sending a clear message to the
world that they did not want to remain under the control of the
Georgian administration.

Resistance against Ossetian independence

Saakashvili, who refused to recognize the election results and
organized alternate elections after which he formed a pro-Georgian
administrative unit, announced that he recognized Dmitri Sanakoev as
the leader of South Ossetia. The Tbilisi administration, which took
action to create an autonomous unit in South Ossetia under the
leadership of Sanakoev, called on the Kokoity administration to give
up their ambitions for independence and support this entity. With this
move, he showed that he would resist Ossetian aspirations for
independence and rely on resources available to him to prevent
Ossetian independence.

The Ossetian people and Kokoity, who expressed disagreement with this
entity, turned to the UN, the EU and the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) for the recognition of South Ossetia after Kosovo
declared independence on Feb. 17, 2008. The South Ossetian parliament,
which asserted that Kosovo’s independence set a precedent, argued that
a decision to declare independence — to be made by ethnic groups —
should have priority over the territorial integrity of the sovereign
state. Lastly, an announcement made by US Deputy Assistant Secretary
of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza, who noted
that a regional issue in Karabakh could be resolved by referendum,
raised hopes among South Ossetians for independence while causing
uneasiness and concern in the Georgian administration.

Georgia, whose membership in NATO was prevented by Russia at a NATO
summit in Bucharest in early April 2008 because of its regional issues
with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is seeking to resolve its problems by
relying on its own methods in an attempt to integrate with the
world. The Georgian administration, which is eager to maintain close
ties with the EU and become a NATO member as soon as possible, seeks
to reduce Russian influence by gradually escalating tension in the
region.

The Tbilisi administration, which sought to clamp down on independence
plans by staging a sudden attack in South Ossetia on the night of
Aug. 7, seems to have had its last chance in South Ossetia before the
realization of the possibility of resolving the Karabakh issue through
a referendum. This operation, which will affect the internal politics
of Georgia, does seem to have been resolved by military means by the
Georgian army in the presence of Russians in the region. The Council
of Europe, which demands a cease-fire and an immediate end of violence
by the Georgian army, will try to convince the Georgian government to
resolve the issue based on political methods and means.

The UN should take action to maintain lasting peace between Georgia,
South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Turkey may serve as a mediator that will
attract the trust and confidence of the parties in the
conflict. Alternative plans should be developed for a lasting peace
between the parties.

* SavaÅ? Genç is an instructor at Fatih University.
10 August 2008, Sunday