Sunday’s Zaman, Turkey
Aug 10 2008
Iron silk road may become giant highway between East and West
Regional cooperation between the South Caucasus and Turkey has moved
into a new phase as the deal over Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway
finally concludes. Nicknamed "the iron silk road," the railroad will
connect Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey while bypassing Russia and
Armenia.
This project has formulated and clarified power relations among these
countries. Although it took longer than expected for Georgia to join
due to pressure from the Armenian lobby on American foreign policy to
halt the project, the railway is scheduled to be completed by 2010 at
an estimated price of $500 million.
The occupation of northern and southern routes by so called
"problematic" countries Iran and Russia drew American and European
attention to the South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan, as a
potential bridge between East Asia and Europe. Azerbaijan, Georgia and
Turkey stepped forward to serve as a protected corridor for Europe and
to strengthen transportation between Asia and Europe via the BTK
railway.
At a July 24 ceremony in Kars, Turkish President Abdullah G?Ã?¼l said,
"The line not only links three countries, it links China and London."
"This project is putting trilateral cooperation in the region one step
ahead," said Zeyno Baran, senior fellow and director of the Hudson
Institute’s Center for Eurasian Policy. Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman,
Baran said that the railroad, in allowing direct access from China to
Europe, is important in terms of stability and economic
development. According to Baran, a project of this kind is unique in
the region. "Contributions from the West were huge in oil and gas
projects; however, BTK is completely a result of the visions of the
leaders of these three countries," she said.
Transit railways linking Europe to Asia crossed through Armenia to
Turkey in three routes until Azerbaijan and Armenia went to war over
the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. One route passed through
Kars-G?Ã?¼mr?Ã?¼-Ayrum -Marneuli-Tbilisi, finishing in Georgia. The other
two traveled via Icevan-Kazakh-Baku and Kars-Yerevan-Nakhchivan-Baku.
Armenia has also closed all routes to Central Asia, Russia and
China. Thus the only trade connection that Armenia has left open is
through Iran.
Construction of the final section of the BTK railway, connecting Kars
with the Georgian border, began in July with a ceremony in which the
leaders of all three countries participated. 105 kilometers remain
left to build, 76 kilometers within Turkey and the remaining 29
between the Turkish border and the city of Ahelkeleki in
Georgia. Georgia also plans to rehabilitate rail between Ahalkeleki
and Tbilisi.
The railway is expected to transport 1.5 million passengers and 3
million tons of freight per year. Forecasts predict that by 2034 it
will transport 3 million people and more than 16 million tons of
goods. The total cost of the project is estimated at $500 million,
with $200 million to be covered by Georgia and the remaining cost to
be covered by Turkey. Georgia will also receive support from
Azerbaijan and the US.
In an interview with Sunday’s Zaman, Professor Rovshan Ibrahimov,
chairman of the international relations department at Qafqaz
University in Baku, said this project is crucial for all three
countries involved. "It is noteworthy that this is not the first
regional project uniting political and economic interests of the three
countries," he added.
An expert on political science and international relations in
Azerbaijan, Dr. Ibrahimov optimistically puts this trilateral relation
in a special setting. "The realization of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, as well as their
successful exploitation, provided the groundwork for ideas for
Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia to further deepen their relations, the
result of which was the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad project."
He added, "It is noteworthy that President G?Ã?¼l, during his official
visit to Azerbaijan, said that it is time to think about setting up a
special economic zone between the three regional countries."
The project had stalled, but it accelerated after the three countries
agreed on the deadlines for the railroad to be finished in Tbilisi on
Nov. 29 of last year and subsequently in Kars on July 24.
After the signing ceremony in Tbilisi, Erdo?Ä?an said the venture
would be a model for regional cooperation and that each of the
railway’s stations would send messages of peace and friendship to the
world. He stressed that the railroad would revive the historic Silk
Road and would serve the interests of all three regional
countries. ?Ä?°lham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, in turn,
stressed that the new railroad would strengthen stability and resolve
issues in the region.
Considering that the railway will connect China with the West,
interest in the project is increasing. Ibrahimov said, "This project
has already attracted the interest of such countries as Kazakhstan and
China, which have expressed a desire to use the BTK railway to
transport their goods to European markets." Essentially a train from
London will pass without interruption to China. In this sense, the BTK
railway will play a significant role in East-West trade.
Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia, the chairman of the Foreign Policy Association
of Georgia, said: "The 21st century begins with the realities of new
geopolitics for world society. Globalization and economic
interdependence are making international relations more prudent and
dynamic. Global integration is no longer a pure realization of
enormous political and economic projects, but simple regional ones."
Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman, Maisaia added that "the BTK railroad fits
into that dimension in that it further promotes one of the efficient
East-West transport and energy corridor systems."
Pointing out that the BTK railroad will deepen regional integration,
Dr. Maisaia goes on to say, "The railroad newly implies the full
integration of the South Caucasus region into the world globalization
process and of the developing potential of the involved parties
[Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey] for true strategic cooperation, not only
with such a global economic zone as the EU but also with the remote
ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] and the Pacific Forum."
While the three countries of the region are trying to establish a
common area for trade and suitable conditions for the exchange of
goods, the plan to exclude Armenia from all regional projects has been
a consistent policy of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Dr. Ibrahimov asserted:
"Because of the conflict with Azerbaijan and the historic dispute with
Turkey, Armenia in fact does not have any economic relations with its
closest neighbors. Because of the unresolved Karabakh conflict, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas
pipeline were built bypassing Armenia, although its territory would
provide the shortest route. In the event of the completion of the
construction of the BTK railway, Armenia will be finalized in the
economic impasse."
Similarly, Professor Kamer Kas?Ä?±m from Abant ?Ä?°zzet Baysal University
in Bolu classifies Armenia as the only unsatisfied country. "This
project means that Armenia will be out of both transit routes and
energy projects," he said.
President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili noted at the July 24 ceremony
in Kars that, through the project, Georgia had opened a window to
Europe. In this regard it was not surprising that Armenia would employ
its strong lobby in the US to try and block funding for Georgia. Thus
the expected deal was twice interrupted. At last on Nov. 21 of last
year President G?Ã?¼l went to Georgia and signed the deal. Azerbaijan
promised to fund some part of the project on the Georgian side.
The railway is also significant for Georgia in that, as it attempts to
behave more independently in the South Caucasus, Georgia’s recent
problems with Russia will require new projects in order to decrease
Russian dominance. "The one who benefits the most out of the regional
cooperative effort is certainly Georgia," argues Ilyas Kamalov, expert
on Russia and Ukraine at the Ankara Strategic Research
Center. According to Kamalov, energy-poor Georgia is planning to pay
its energy needs and carry out its projects independent of Russia.
Azerbaijan estimates that through this project, trade relations will
advance as well as long distance transport of goods will be replaced
by railway, which in turn will affect the efficiency and quality of
transportation. Kazakhstan also agreed to connect itself to the
railway. China and Kazakhstan signed support protocol agreements with
these three countries in 2006. According to Musa Panahov, deputy
minister of the Azerbaijani Transportation Ministry, Kazakhstan stated
that they would always be ready to support the railway. "According to
initial news, Kazakhstan is planning to transport 10 million tons of
goods a year," said Panahov during a press conference in March of last
year in Baku.
"The project will establish a direct link between Turkey and
Azerbaijan. It is crucial that all shipping in the region reach Europe
and Asia via Turkey," explained Turkish Transportation Minister Binali
Y?Ä?±ld?Ä?±r?Ä?&#x B1;m at the July 24 ceremony in Kars.
This giant project will contribute hugely to the development of trade
between East and West as well as deepen the economic, social and
cultural integration in the region.
10 August 2008, Sunday
MAH?Ä?°R ZEYNALOV ?Ä?°STANBUL