259471&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
A ug 10, 2008 23:40 | Updated Aug 10, 2008 23:46

Analysis: Russia sends a message to the West
By TOVAH LAZAROFF

Georgia lost a foolhardy gamble in thumbing its nose at its powerful
neighbor Russia, which this weekend bombed Georgian cities and wrested
control of its breakaway province of South Ossetia, according to
Israeli Russian experts.

Russia had seen a "golden opportunity" to teach Georgia and its
neighbors a lesson to "behave properly," said Hebrew University
Russian expert Yitzhak Brudny, as he explained how a small military
flare-up between Georgia and South Ossetia had turned into a major
military exercise for Russia and drawn world attention away from the
Olympics in Beijing.

With all eyes turned toward China, Georgia’s pro-Western President
Mikheil Saakashvili had hoped he could respond harshly to a skirmish
with South Ossetia on Friday and try and regain control of the
separatist province, said Russian expert Amnon Sella of the
Interdisciplinary Center at Herzliya.

"It backfired on him because Georgia, which has a very small army,
can’t take on Russia," which had obviously been prepared for such a
move given its swift response, said Sella.

"Saakashvili is a young president who is not well seasoned in
international affairs," said Sella. He had hoped the international
community and in particular the West would support Georgia’s moves in
South Ossetia and that Russia would not respond, he added.

Saakashvili, explained Brudny, has a reputation for being a "hothead"
who does not always think through what he is doing.

Instead of responding diplomatically, Russia, which has granted
passports to most South Ossetians, sent combat troops into South
Ossetia and attacked Georgia from the air.

The bombardment was a way for Moscow to kill a few birds with one
stone, Brundy and other academics said.

It showed both Georgia and the West that Russia was a regional
superpower to be reckoned with, said Brudny. The message was: "We are
going to use force, we are not going to tolerate a hostile regime on
our borderland."

"Russia wants to maintain the status quo, meaning they wield influence
over the region," including a monopoly on sources of energy, said
Sella. Running through Georgia is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipline, the
second largest in the world for the transport of crude oil, he said.

By flexing its military might against Georgia, Moscow paid the West
back for its recognition of Kosovo’s independence; a move that Russia
had opposed, said Brudny.

In addition, he said, Russia hoped that its violent response would
mark the beginning of the end of the Saakashvili government, which
seeks to join NATO and had moved the country away from Russia in favor
of the West. Moscow would like to see a pro-Russian government replace
Saakshvilli, he added.

Russia is nervous because NATO is expanding into its back yard with
both Georgia and the Ukraine seeking membership at the same time that
NATO is putting an anti-missile system in eastern Europe, specifically
in in Poland and Chechnya, said Zvi Magen, a former ambassador to
Russia and the current chairman of the Institute for Eurasian studies
at the IDC in Herzliya.

While the system is supposedly aimed at protecting Europe from Iran,
the Russians are still uneasy about it, he added.

Saakshvilli, in a way, had been "ambushed" by the larger forces in
play here, said Magen. For some time now Russia had been in opposition
to the West in its region, but had been able to do little more than
verbally protest – this was an opportunity for it to flex its muscles,
said Magen.

In this way, he added, it also sent a message to the American
administration that will replace Bush in January: Russia is not a
force to be ignored.