GEORGIA LOSES WHILE BATTLEGROUND EXPANDS
By Sä°Nan Oä~^An*
Today’s Zaman
Aug 12, 2008
Turkey
The operation initiated by Georgia in an effort to preserve its
territorial integrity and maintain constitutional order took on another
dimension with the involvement of Russia; there is now the danger that
the war may spread all over the region. Meanwhile, Abkhazia attacked
Georgian units stationed in the Kodor Valley, which Georgian forces
have occupied since 2006. With South Ossetia’s official call for
Russian help, the war to maintain constitutional order has turned
into a South Ossetia-Abkhazia-Russia war against Georgia.
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili issued a document indicating
that the country is in a state of war and referred it to parliament
for approval; parliament endorsed the document. The Russian General
Staff insisted that this is not a state of war, stressing that Russian
actions sought only to protect Russian citizens in the region. Georgia
asked for a cease-fire despite that the fact that it had declared
war against Russia.
Perhaps the date of Aug. 8 was chosen for a reason, as at the time
the international community was busy watching the inauguration of
the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Putin and many other word leaders
were in that city.
The first promise Saakashvili made to the Georgian people after the
Rose Revolution in 2003 was to preserve the country’s territorial
integrity. Georgia had three autonomous regions when it declared
independence from Russia. Two — Abkhazia and Ossetia — gained
independence. Only Ajaria was out of the conflict. Turkey’s role was
indispensable in this, as it actually acted as a guarantor in regards
to Ajaria. But Turkey never brought that up.
Saakashvili decided to start with the weakest of the three,
Ajaria. After sending Ajarian President Aslan Abatidze to Moscow, he
annulled the autonomous status of the region. The people of Ajaria,
a predominantly Muslim region that had been included in the borders
at the time of the Turkish National Oath (Misak-ı Milli during the
Ottoman era), were forced to convert to Christianity. A cross was
included on the Ajarian flag.
Next Saakashvili targeted South Ossetia, the second-weakest of the
three regions. But Russia did not let this happen.
In effect, Russia has had a pretext for this war for some time, as
most citizens of South Ossetia have become Russian citizens. Moreover,
Russia has stationed peacekeeping troops in the region. Russia has
also imposed an embargo upon Georgia. Therefore, Russia is trying
to take the Georgians out of South Ossetia in order to protect its
citizens and troops and to destroy Georgia’s infrastructure and
industrial capabilities.
The involvement of Russia in the conflict has forced Saakashvili to
ask for a cease-fire. This situation shows that Georgia will be the
losing party in the conflict. If the current scenario continues this
way, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will break away from Georgia. There
will be no peaceful means to ensure that these republics will remain
attached to Georgia.
It is necessary to review the developments, which have taken on a
regional dimension and now include Russia and Abkhazia, despite the
fact that the conflict started between Georgia and South Ossetia.
US, NATO and the EU:
The US, the EU and NATO have stressed that they support the territorial
integrity of Georgia. While some countries such as Denmark have made
strong statements against Russia, no concrete step has been taken
by the EU or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE). It should be noted that Russia’s ability to threaten Europe’s
energy security as well as its military and diplomatic strength has
played a determinative role in Europe’s ineptness.
It does not seem logical to think that Georgia initiated the South
Ossetia operation without informing the West — NATO, the US,
etc. It is also impossible to argue that Georgia did not consider
probable Russian involvement after initiation of the operation. So
why did Georgia take this action knowing that it would lead to
confrontation with Russia? It is not logical that Georgia did not
consider this. Only one option remains: Georgia started this war
knowing that a confrontation with Russia would occur. In so doing,
it might have sought to drag Russia into a regional conflict.
What are the strategic considerations of Russia in this
operation? These could include the following:
–Russia will be dragged into an ethnic conflict in the region to make
sure that it is labeled by the international community as an aggressor.
— Georgia will seek help from the US and NATO when it requires a
hand because it is aware that it cannot deal with Russia on its own.
–Georgia’s membership in NATO will be facilitated
–The Olympics, held in China, — the US’s biggest rival — will lose
importance because of the Russian-Georgian conflict.
–Attention will be taken away from the American elections
–Probably Israel and the US will strike Iran at a time when Russia
is busy with this regional conflict.
The list may be expanded. But there is one vague point: To what extent
will the US be supportive of Georgia? Statements from US authorities
have so far been mild at best, asking for immediate Russian withdrawal
and maintenance of Georgian territorial integrity. A harsher US stance
will be important for a better understanding of potential scenarios
in the region. On the other hand, Saakashvili called for a cease-fire
when he realized that the help he was expecting would never arrive.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Georgia will also have
repercussions in the region, causing separations and partitions. Maybe
the potential for this has existed for a long time, but the lines were
never drawn so clearly. Now the current statements made by different
countries clearly distinguish the sides and parties in the region.
This war clarified the lines among the countries in the region
and distinguished one from the other. Azerbaijan, neighbor to
both Georgia and the Russian Federation, issued a statement that
it supported Georgian territorial integrity, implying that it was
extending diplomatic support to Georgia in relation to the South
Ossetian problem.
Azeri support for Georgia is understandable. Azerbaijan, which
sympathizes with Georgia because of the Armenian occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh, supports Georgian territorial integrity. It
is expected that Azerbaijan will resort to violence to regain the
Nagorno-Karabakh region if this is not done via peaceful means in the
middle term. Azeri President Ä°lham Aliyev and the defense minister
made clear statements reaffirming this stance.
While Azerbaijan supports Georgia in the conflict, Armenia openly
supports Russia and even became party to the clash. It is rumored that
when Russian military jets bombed Georgian military bases in Vaziani
and Marnauil near Tbilisi, which are unofficially used by the US and
NATO, the jets had taken off from Armenia. This proves that Armenia
has joined the war on the side of Russia. Kazakhstan also tends to
support Russia in the conflict.
Within the region, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic countries have
taken Georgia’s side. Ukraine, which has ongoing problems with Russia,
declared that it would extend any kind of support with the exception
of weaponry to Georgia. Poland took action to ensure that the EU and
NATO take steps toward a decision to defend Georgia against Russian
aggression. In general the countries that have problems with Russia
in the region have taken a supportive stance toward Georgia in the
conflict.
Turkey is one of the most sensitive countries involved in this
conflict. Turkey has made clear that it does not support separatist
movements because of similar problems that Azerbaijan has been
facing. For this reason, it supports the territorial integrity of
states with separatist problems. However, it also has refrained
from moves that will harm its sensitive relations with Russia. It
is well-known that Turkey equips Georgian military units, provides
technical support for the Georgian army and even repaired a military
airport in that country. In general, Turkey extends military support
to Georgia. The Russian press has emphasized that Turkey is at the
top of the list of countries extending support to Georgia.
Another reason Turkey is concerned is that Georgia is a transit
country for Turkey. The country hosts important pipelines and
transport corridors. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, the
Shah Deniz-Erzurum gas pipeline and the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku (KTB)
railway project are all factors that increase Turkey’s concerns.
There are many sides behind this war. We cannot take the issue
as a mere Georgian-South Ossetian war. Russia is at the heart of
the conflict. Turkey supports Georgia because of their strategic
ties. Moreover, Turkey favors Georgia’s territorial integrity in
principle because Azerbaijan is dealing with a similar problem in
Karabakh. On the other hand, the northern Caucasian peoples support
South Ossetia. There is a sizeable Caucasian diaspora in Turkey
that generally supports South Ossetia. Moreover, Turkey has deepened
its strategic relations with Russia. In this case, Turkey cannot be
expected to take sides with either party.
Turkey may assume a role of mediation in this conflict as it has in
Middle Eastern conflicts because the involvement of Russia and the
voluntary support of the Caucasian peoples will make the situation
more difficult for Georgia. Georgia asked for Turkey’s support when
Russia became involved in the war and started bombing peaceful areas
outside the war zone. What can Turkey do at this point? The situation
is sensitive. Therefore, Turkey should assume the role of mediator to
ensure that the issue is discussed in UN circles and that peace is
maintained. And of course, Turkey should consider the humanitarian
aspect of the conflict and provide relief aid for people in the
conflict zone.
Is there any possibility that the energy and communication lines
will be harmed by the war? According to the Energy Ministry, the
answer is no. However, arguing that the BTC will not be bombed while
other locations within Georgian borders are being bombed — such as
the Port of Poti, the Vaziani military base and the unofficial US
military base in Marnauli, a predominantly Azeri region — must be an
attempt to calm the public. Otherwise, there is no other explanation
for this. On the other hand, it should be recalled that these lines
pass through a predominantly Armenian region, and in consideration
of this, some lines may be harmed.
*Sinan Ogan is the president of the Turkish Center for International
and Strategic Analysis (TURKSAM).
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