RUSSIA MAY TURN FOCUS TO PRO-U.S. UKRAINE AFTER BEATING GEORGIA
By Henry Meyer
Bloomberg
Aug 13, 2008
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Now that Russia has humiliated Georgia with a
punishing military offensive, it may shift its attention to reining in
pro-Western Ukraine, another American ally in the former Soviet Union.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s
first order of business likely will be to try to thwart Ukraine’s
bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
"The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine
of the damages of allying itself with NATO," said Geoffrey Smith at
Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.
The U.S. has long seen Georgia and Ukraine as counterweights to
Russia’s influence in the region. Opposition leaders in the two
countries came to power after U.S.-backed popular protests in 2003
and 2004. Their ascension advanced an American strategy of expanding
NATO to include both countries and securing energy routes from the
Caspian Sea that bypass Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline to Turkey runs through Georgia.
The future effectiveness of that policy is now in doubt, with Georgia’s
U.S.-educated President Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, weakened by a five-day
blitz that his American patrons were powerless to halt.
Medvedev, 42, and Putin, 56, say Russia began the offensive in response
to a drive by Georgia to restore control over the breakaway region
of South Ossetia. Now Russia has ousted Georgian forces from there
and from Abkhazia, another separatist region, and destroyed much of
the central government’s military.
Less Confident
"Georgia will be enormously more careful in its actions in the future,
and much less confident of its relationship with the United States,"
said U.S.-based geopolitical advisory group Stratfor in a research
note.
NATO is due in December to review the two countries’ bids to join the
Western military alliance. NATO leaders in April promised Ukraine
and Georgia eventual membership while declining them fast- track
status. Russia, which has also denounced U.S. plans to station
missile defense sites in former Soviet satellites Poland and the
Czech Republic, says the expansion of the Cold War-era alliance to
its borders is a security threat.
NATO should affirm the potential of Georgia and Ukraine to become
alliance members in the face of Russia’s incursion into Georgia,
senior U.S. officials said yesterday in Washington.
"Russia may find it convenient to raise the level of tension with
Ukraine in the run-up to the December NATO review," Citigroup
Inc.’s London-based David Lubin and Ali Al- Eyd wrote in a note to
clients. "If the conflict with Russia decelerates or reverses Georgia’s
integration with the West, a similar fate could also affect Ukraine."
Divided Country
Ukraine has a large Russian-speaking population in the south and
east that opposes NATO entry and looks to Moscow. Russian officials
warn that if President Viktor Yushchenko pushes Ukraine into NATO,
the nation may split in two. Russia has made its displeasure with
Ukraine clear in recent years, cutting off gas supplies to the country
in 2005 and reducing deliveries earlier this year.
The military operation in Georgia will serve "as a warning" to
Ukraine that it should desist from petitioning for NATO entry,
said Janusz Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies
Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington. "Otherwise, Moscow may intervene to protect the allegedly
threatened interests of the Russian population."
Too Aggressive
An overly aggressive move by Russia against Ukraine might invite a
backlash, said Renaissance Capital’s Smith.
"If it reacts too violently against Ukraine, then it risks provoking
the reaction it least wants: trade and investment barriers for its
companies, a more antagonistic approach to energy transit, and above
all, it risks scaring Ukraine into seeking western protection,"
he said.
Germany and France opposed NATO entry for Georgia and Ukraine because
of the Georgian separatist disputes and opposition to membership among
some Ukrainians. They now will feel their concerns have been justified,
said Cliff Kupchan of New-York based Eurasia Group a political risk
consulting firm.
"Considering both European reticence and possible fears about Ukraine,
I think it is very much on the slow track," he said, referring to
NATO membership for both states.
The assault by Russian artillery, tanks and bombers inflicted
significant damage on Georgia’s armed forces, which last month
increased their size to 37,000 soldiers. Russia’s military has 1.13
million personnel. The U.S. trained and equipped Georgia’s military
and in 2006 approved almost $300 million in aid over five years.
Army Regroups
"A substantial part of our military power has been destroyed," said
Georgian National Security Council chief Kakha Lomaia. "However,
we did preserve the core of our army, and have managed to regroup it
close to the capital."
An airbase in Senaki was destroyed and three Georgian ships blown up
in the Black Sea port of Poti, he said.
A month ago, about 1,000 U.S. soldiers joined 600 Georgians and 100
from Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia in joint exercises at the Vaziani
military base near Tbilisi. Russia repeatedly bombed the base during
this month’s war.
"The American role in the region has been weakened," Jan Techau,
a European and security affairs analyst at the German Council on
Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in a telephone interview. "It’s a
reassertion of Russia’s dominant role in the region."
Ian Hague, a Bank of Georgia board member and fund manager with
$1.8 billion in the former Soviet Union, said the attack on Georgia
discouraged Western investments in energy infrastructure by raising
the risk premium.
"It’s somewhat reminiscent, in 1939, when Stalin attacked Finland,"
former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told
Bloomberg Television. "I think this kind of confrontation is the best
kind of answer as to why they are seeking to be members of NATO."
From: Baghdasarian